Fantasy Baseball: Dylan Cease signs with Blue Jays, and he's probably a good value for 2026

Get past the sticker shock: Dylan Cease just agreed to a seven-year contract with the Blue Jays that will pay him $210 million. And he's totally worth it. 

Yes, he's coming off a season where he posted a 4.55 ERA, his second season with an ERA north of 4.50 in the past three seasons. Yes, he can be maddeningly inconsistent even in the best of times, locked as he seemingly is, in a neverending battle between the quality of his stuff (some of the best in baseball) and the quality of his command (not some of the best in baseball). 

But we know ERA isn't all that matters. We know, for instance, that Cease's underlying metrics suggest he deserved much better than he got in 2025. Take your pick of your favorite metric: His xERA was 3.46, and that accounts for the quality of contact he gave up, while his FIP was 3.56, which is generally quality-of-contact agnostic. For his career, his xERA is 3.66 and his FIP is 3.67, both slightly better than his 3.88 ERA, and over 1,000 innings, it is fair to say that there must be something about Cease that these metrics aren't accounting for.

But there's also plenty that his ERA doesn't account for, most notably his track record as one of the most durable pitchers in baseball. He doesn't quite qualify for the "innings eater" tag – he's never topped 190 innings in a season – but he'll go out there every fifth day and take the ball, something he has done almost without fail every time up since he made the majors back in 2019. He's had a few scares in that time, but nothing concerning at all – Cease left a start in May of 2025 with a cramp in his right forearm that didn't even end up costing him a start. 

And the highs are electric and when he's on, Cease can be simply overpowering. He's not on as often as you'd want, but for a team looking to repeat as AL champs, you'll chase the high points and hope they come in the right moments to help propel you. 

Cease has been overdrafted at times in Fantasy, but that's unlikely to happen coming off a mid-4.00s ERA. But the fact that a smart MLB club just gave him $200 million plus should be a sign that this is a pitcher you want to bet on. You're taking on ratios risk when you draft him, of course, but you're also locking in 210-plus strikeouts, a milestone he has hit in five straight seasons. And if you get the mid-3.00s ERA version of Cease – let alone the 2.20 ERA he posted in 2022, though it seems foolish to chase that at this point – you're going to get a huge value if his price remains around the 80th pick and the 20th starting pitcher off the board.

And it's not like Cease is any riskier than some of the guys going ahead of him. Are Spencer Schwellenbach, George Kirby, or Joe Ryan really safer picks? Is Spencer Strider, going a few picks later? Cease has his warts, but the proven volume is something very few pitchers can match, and the proven upside is there, too. 

The sticker shock is real, but this is what a pitcher with Cease's profile will fetch on the market. Blake Snell got $182 million over five years last offseason and he's a year older and doesn't have near Cease's track record of health (and has struggled almost as much with consistency). This is the market for pitchers who can pitch like an ace (even if just for a stretch) without missing starts. If Cease was a consistent low-3.00s ERA pitcher, he might have added another $100 million to that total.