By the Numbers: Who will get promoted and when?

Opening day has finally arrived. It's an exciting time for Fantasy owners everywhere, as we get to see the long-awaited 2008 debuts of Willy Aybar, Corey Patterson and Paul McAnulty. Sure, that sentence would have read better a couple of weeks ago, when we thought we'd be seeing Evan Longoria, Jay Bruce and Chase Headley in the opening day lineups instead. They join a long list of prized prospects, which also includes Cameron Maybin, Carlos Gonzalez and Colby Rasmus, who were deemed "Not Ready for Prime Time" by their organizations.

For most of these players, their opportunity to make a Fantasy inpact is just a matter of time, and not a very long time at that. It's hard to imagine Aybar blocking Longoria's path to stardom, and even Dusty Baker has to recognize that Patterson is not the future in Cincinnati.

Two of the recent demotions, however, have set up some interesting dilemmas, both for their teams as well as for Fantasy owners. Homer Bailey's spring struggles not only earned him a ticket to Louisville, but put his place in the Reds' rotation into question. The Rangers' move to demote Jarrod Saltalamacchia has also sent shockwaves through Fantasy circles, as Salty was rostered in 86 percent of CBSSports.com Fantasy leagues for Week 1.

Bailey and Saltalamacchia are both at or near the top of the "Most Dropped" list for Week 2, but do these surprise demotions really give Fantasy owners a reason to dump them in the free agent pool? The answers await ...

Who will make room for Bailey? With Bailey out of the picture, there was room for two other youngsters -- Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez -- in the Cincy rotation. For him to return, Bailey may have to push either Cueto or Volquez aside. If last season's performances were any indication, that will be a tough task. Looking at their 2007 numbers from the highest level where they pitched 50 innings or more, Cueto and Volquez both had superior K/9 and BB/9 rates. Bailey may have an easier time grasping the No. 5 slot, which is currently held by Josh Fogg. The erstwhile Rockie will be little competition, but Matt Belisle could block Bailey’s promotion once he is activated. Belisle's 2007 stats make him appear to be an inferior pitcher, but his ERA and WHIP were inflated by a 34 percent H/BIP rate.

Bailey's best shot at another chance in the Reds' rotation is for Belisle to have an extended stint on the DL or for Cueto to struggle in making the jump from Double-A. As impressive as Cueto's stats are, he is still just 22 with limited experience above Class A. If you still have Bailey on your roster, there is reason to be optimistic about his eventual recall. However, if Volquez is available, dump Bailey or a lesser pitcher to grab him. He is a better bet to succeed over the course of the season.

When will it be Salty's time? For most Fantasy owners, it was a foregone conclusion that Saltalamacchia would start for the Rangers this year. At the very least, he could split time between catcher and first base. At the most, he appeared more than ready as a full-time successor to Laird, who was very disappointing in '07. If you compare the offense provided last year by Laird and Salty head-to-head, it's no contest. Using RC/27, a per-game metric that encompasses a wide variety of offensive events, Salty outscored Laird 4.4 to 2.9. So what gives?

Let's give Laird -- and Rangers' management -- the benefit of the doubt and look at his potential. Comparing Salty's 2007 numbers against those from Laird's best season of 2006, can we see the promise that GM Jon Daniels sees? In fact, Salty may have to play some catch-up. Both players have fairly low walk rates and slightly elevated whiff rates, but Laird holds the edge in power hitting.

At 28, Laird may never hit that power peak again, but Saltalamacchia is just beginning his development. Offensively, Laird may hold a slight edge right now, but with just a little more time in Triple A, Salty should surpass him easily. Stash him on reserves, because he should pay dividends later this season.

One more demotion: Joel Peralta revisited ... I featured Peralta as one of the "closers in waiting" in my recent Closer Mentality column. Apparently the Royals disagreed, as he was one of their final spring training cuts. One should not make too much of this, though, because Peralta was mostly the victim of a numbers game. He had options remaining whereas Leo Nunez was out of options.

Nunez and Peralta put up very similar K/9 and BB/9 rates in 2007, but unlike Nunez, Peralta was able to cure his gopheritis. Despite the numbers game, the Royals' preference to keep Nunez over Peralta doesn't speak well to Peralta's chances to earn saves, but then neither does the presence of Joakim Soria. At this point, you shouldn't be worried about rostering either Nunez or Peralta.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.