Dusty Baker's comments Wednesday -- essentially, that the Reds' fifth-starter competition is an actual competition, and not Aroldis Chapman's job to lose -- came as a bit of a surprise to many of us.
It seemed like it was all but assured that Chapman would be the team's fifth starter this season, with Mike Leake going to the bullpen and Jonathan Broxton closing. But now, there's some doubt, with this alternate universe that has Chapman closing, Leake starting and Broxton bumped to middle relief. The good news is that Chapman as a closer will still have a good value. And Leake, who was drafted just a few spots behind Stephen Strasburg, has more skill than a typical starter-who's-been-bumped-to-the-bullpen.
But Chapman seems like he would be happiest as a starter, and the team invested in Broxton to close. Leake makes stellar rotation insurance (or even attractive trade bait, seeing as super-prospect Tony Cingrani could slide into the rotation if an injury occurs), so the idea that Chapman will start seems the most likely way for this to play out.
Chapman will be solid no matter where he lands, but exercise a wee bit of caution with Broxton, who stands to lose the most if this unlikely scenario comes to fruition.