Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Texas lingers despite anemic offense as Alabama, Oregon climb

The only time to consider making changes to the formula you use to power rate teams is when your ratings clearly aren't working. So far in 2025, while my ratings' overall performance isn't up to the last few years, it's not underperforming at a level that would cause concern.

I wish it were. If it was, that would give me an excuse to do whatever it took to get Texas out of my top 12, because I'm am sick and tired of Texas being in my top 12. Every week I run the numbers, and every week Texas remains there. It's making me angry.

CBS Sports 136: Texas A&M, Alabama rise into top five amid shakeup in college football rankings

Chip Patterson

After seeing the Longhorns' offense flail helplessly on Saturday night in a 16-13 overtime win against Kentucky I thought, "maybe this is it. Maybe this is the nightmare game that pushes them out of my top 12."

It wasn't. The Longhorns are still clinging on, and I hate it. Their defense is simply too good to knock them out of consideration! But how bad is the offense? Well, I'll put it in this perspective for you.

On Saturday night, Texas' offense averaged -0.37 EPA per snap. Among games between Power Four schools this season, that performance is the eighth-worst performance by any offense this season. It's also the only one of the 31 worst offensive performances this season in which that team somehow managed to win the game.

The next worst was the -0.21 EPA per snap LSU had in its Week 3 win over Florida, which ranks as the 32nd-worst.

The Longhorns are still in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth, but selfishly, I hope they don't get there. I already know how that game will end: in a boring 16-10 Texas loss. That's not a game any of us want to watch, is it? Please, somebody left on this Longhorns schedule, hand them a third loss and get them out of my life for the rest of 2025. I beg you.

Odds below via FanDuel Sportsbook

2025 Fornelli Power Ratings

1	Ohio State
Whenever a team looks like the best team in the country there's a natural reaction among fans and media alike to look for weaknesses. Lately, I've seen some steering the idea that Ohio State QB Julian Sayin is that weakness. I've seen people mention him as a game manager type. Listen, if you watch Julian Sayin play football and think he's just a "game manager," you do not understand the QB position. No, he's not the best player on the offense, and Ohio State would probably still be pretty good with an actual game manager, but Sayin is doing things at a very high level for a freshman. And he gets better every week! Last Week: 1 | Title Odds: +270
2	Indiana
There was no letdown from the Hoosiers this week, which was something I felt worth keeping an eye on following the biggest win in program history. They dominated Michigan State in a 38-13 win, and there isn't a ranked team remaining on their schedule. It is worth mentioning that three of Indiana's final five games are on the road, but even with that being the case, it's hard to see this team losing twice in the regular season and putting its playoff hopes in jeopardy. Last Week: 2 | Title Odds: +800
3	Alabama
I was a little surprised to see the Tide jump past Oregon considering what the Ducks did to Rutgers, but Alabama is a team that gets better every week. The Tide held Tennessee to fewer than half the points they put up against Georgia, which is impressive, even with this game being in Tuscaloosa while the Dawgs had to play in Knoxville. Ty Simpson is the real deal, they have good receivers, and the defense has been great in every game outside Florida State. My only concern right now is the run game. Last Week: 4 | Title Odds: +650
4	Oregon
Talk about being in the wrong place at the wrong time for Rutgers, man. Oregon had 750 yards of total offense against the Knights on Saturday. The Ducks scored eight touchdowns in the game, and only two of them were from inside the red zone! They averaged 30.1 yards per touchdown play in the game. Oh, and the Ducks left points on the board. Dante Moore threw an interception on one red zone possession, and the Ducks knelt out the the final seconds of the game after getting inside the 20 one more time. Last Week: 3 | Title Odds: +900
5	Texas A&M
OK, so there are some concerns here. The Aggies beat Arkansas 45-42 and we never have to apologize for winning (unless you're Texas). I had wondered if the uptick in defensive performance over the three previous games was A&M figuring things out, or more the byproduct of the offenses it was facing. Now, Arkansas is a very dangerous offense, but this game suggests the Aggies defense might not be fixed after all. The good news is there's only one offense left on the regular season schedule that scares me even a little (Missouri). Last Week: 5 | Title Odds: +1000
6	Georgia
We all spend so much time focusing on how Georgia's defense isn't what we typically expect from it, but I'm going to turn the narrative around a bit. Georgia beat Ole Miss 43-35 in another shootout akin to the Tennessee win. Well, shouldn't we give Kirby Smart some credit here? He won national titles by slowly suffocating opponents with his defense. Now he can't do that and finds himself in a spot where he needs to outscore opponents, and he's made the adjustment to doing so. And he's doing it with a QB that nobody would've considered one of the best quarterbacks in the country to start the year. Last Week: 9 | Title Odds: +1100
7	Notre Dame
I got angry at Notre Dame Saturday night. Not for anything it did performance-wise. No, that was great. The Irish ran all over USC in the rain to win 34-24. What made me mad was they kept alluding to the 2005 Bush Push game since it was the 20-year anniversary, and when you saw those highlights you saw a Notre Dame Stadium where the turf was a foot high. Now they have artificial turf, which made the fact it was raining so much in South Bend almost meaningless. Can you imagine if this game had been played on that old turf? It would've been a muddy chaotic mess. It would've been awesome. Last Week: 8 | Title Odds: +1100
8	Miami (Fla.)
Did you know there was one guy in college football media who spent the last two weeks saying that this Miami team wasn't going to suffer the letdown of an unexpected loss because it was too good on the lines of scrimmage, and it's defense was just too good? Wow, that guy is an idiot. I certainly can't remember his name, but if I did, I'd use it here. Oh well. Anyway, Miami's defense didn't play too poorly on Friday night. It gave up 14 points early and then clamped down on Louisville for the rest of the night. The problem was Carson Beck kept throwing the ball to the other team, which he tends to do when pressured, and we hadn't seen him pressured much before Friday night. I love Miami's OL, but that feels like it could be a problem should the Canes get to the playoff as I still expect they will. Last Week: 7 | Title Odds: +1700
9	Ole Miss
There's been a lot of love for Trinidad Chambliss this year, but the one thought that struck me while watching Ole Miss' 43-35 loss to Georgia is that I can't really tell the difference between Chambliss and Georgia's Gunner Stockton. Yet the two are talked about by the public at large in very different ways. Anyway, the Rebels need to rebound from this game quickly, because if they get past Oklahoma next week with a win they're looking very good for a playoff spot. If they lose again, November will be stressful. Last Week: 10 | Title Odds: +2700
10	Texas Tech
The Red Raiders nearly pulled off an impossible comeback against Arizona State on Saturday. If you missed it, Tech trailed the Sun Devils 19-7 with four minutes to play and then scored two touchdowns before the two-minute warning to take a 22-19 lead. However, Arizona State responded with a 75-yard touchdown drive to take the lead back in the final minute. Still, all in all, Arizona State was the better team for 58 minutes of the game and deserved to win. Tech was without Behren Morton at QB and Skyler Gill-Howard on their defensive line, which does factor into how I rate them still, but it's not as if Morton doesn't have an injury history. Last Week: 6 | Title Odds: +2700
11	Oklahoma
I have to give credit to Oklahoma here. I thought everything about a road trip to Columbia to face the Gamecocks coming off the loss to Texas looked like a situation where the Sooners could let one loss become two, but they handled their business. The 26-7 final score might not scream blowout, but it felt like one if you watched. Last Week: Not ranked | Title Odds: +3000
12	Texas
I don't have a lot more to add here other than what I've already said, so I'll just leave you with another stat. Texas is scoring 16.8 points per game against Power Four competition this year. That ranks 63rd among 68 Power Four schools, ahead of luminaries like Stanford, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Last Week: 11 | Title Odds: +2200

Fell outside Top 12: USC