COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 22 Syracuse at Notre Dame
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The college football world at large can sometimes get stuck in a rut when it comes to debates. One such debate has raged for weeks, ever since the first College Football Playoff Rankings of the season were released and Notre Dame, which lost its season opener at Miami 24-21, was ranked No. 10, eight spots ahead of No. 18 Miami, the team it lost to.

Notre Dame has remained ahead of the Hurricanes every week since, though they've gotten closer. The Irish have only moved up to No. 9 while Miami was at No. 13 in last week's rankings. When the new rankings are released this week, Notre Dame will remain ahead.

And you know what? They should be.

Here's the problem with the debate. It only focuses on the head-to-head result between the two, but the CFP isn't ranking teams based on one result. They're ranking teams based on the entirety of their season, and guess what? Notre Dame has had a better season overall than Miami, even if we include the three-point loss at Miami in the first game of the season.

This isn't the committee valuing Notre Dame's brand or trying to rig it for television ratings. If we were still using the BCS system, Notre Dame would be five spots ahead of Miami right now, too. If we look at power ratings, like mine and everybody else's, you'll find Notre Dame ahead of Miami.

And for those who want to argue the strength of schedule, guess what? Whether you want to use FPI, Sagarin, or every other method, Notre Dame has a higher-rated SOS than Miami. Now, having said that, there's an entirely different discussion that needs to be had over SOS, but we don't have time for the entire thing. For now, just know that the difference between the No. 25 SOS and the No. 50 SOS isn't significant, and nobody measures SOS the same way. So try not to rely too heavily on it in any argument.

Back to the matter at hand, none of this is to say the head-to-head result shouldn't matter, or that it won't. I guarantee you that if the final at-large bid comes down to Notre Dame and Miami, the committee will choose Miami over the Irish because of that result, as it should. But when it comes to looking at their seasons on the whole, we can't just look at one game.

Oh, and by the way, the Irish are up to No. 4 in our power ratings this week, seven spots ahead of Miami. But at least we have you in the top 12 here, Canes fans! Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

2025 Fornelli Power Ratings
1
Ohio State
The Big Ten released its championship game scenarios for the weekend, and the simplest outcome is this: if Ohio State beats Michigan, the title game will be Ohio State versus Indiana, no matter what happens elsewhere. Of course, Ohio State fans are well aware of how not simple beating Michigan has been for this team lately. It's kind of wild to think about how Ohio State hasn't played in a Big Ten Championship Game since the 2020 season, isn't it? Last Week: 1 | Title Odds: (+180)
2
Indiana
There are a lot of Big Ten title scenarios that involve Indiana losing to Purdue this week. For those Big Ten teams rooting on the Boilermakers this season, might I suggest buying a scratch-off ticket instead? The Hoosiers are 28.5-point favorites and may be trying to win a Heisman Trophy for Fernando Mendoza. Last Week: 2 | Title Odds: (+500)
3
Oregon
I'm impressed by the Ducks. I'd been a bit skeptical of them all year, despite my own ratings loving them as much as they do, but they've put some of those doubts to rest lately. The fact that they've been able to play at a high level despite the injuries they're dealing with on offense is impressive. They do have one more difficult test left, though. Going on the road against Washington is not easy, and Dan Lanning is only 1-3 against the Huskies since arriving at Oregon. Last Week: 3 | Title Odds: (+1000)
4
Notre Dame
Yes, my ratings filter out garbage time, and Saturday's 70-7 win over Syracuse featured a lot of garbage time. Still, one of my favorite cliches when discussing college football teams is don't tell me who you've played, tell me how you've played. Notre Dame is playing extremely well. They are blowing the doors off teams, and have one of the most dynamic playmakers in the country with Jeremiyah Love. They have their two losses to Miami and Texas A&M, but if you were to poll every other potential CFP team about which one of those three they want to play the least right now, I bet Notre Dame receives the most votes. Last Week: 6 | Title Odds: (+950)
5
Georgia
If you're Georgia, would you rather miss out on the SEC Championship, take the rest, and guarantee yourself a first-round home game, or are you hoping to get to Atlanta? These are the kinds of questions we're forced to seriously consider in this new age of the expanded playoff. I do not like it! Anyway, regardless of how you answer that question, the Dawgs need to beat Georgia Tech if they want to have a chance at that home game. Last Week: 5 | Title Odds: (+1000)
6
Alabama
So last week Alabama lost to Oklahoma but didn't drop in the ratings, and this week they do despite a win over Eastern Illinois. How does that happen? Well, first, Notre Dame jumped Alabama more than Alabama fell. As for why Georgia surpassed the Tide, when adjusting for the opponent they played, the Tide were worse against Eastern Illinois than Oklahoma. The margins are very thin between these teams, and Georgia's improved slightly while Alabama's worsened just enough to slip below the Dawgs. Last Week: 4 | Title Odds: (+1700)
7
Texas Tech
Texas Tech had last week off and is now a win over West Virginia away from playing in the Big 12 Championship with a chance to lock up a playoff bid. What we don't know is how the committee would view the Red Raiders if they lose the Big 12 Championship. I still think they'd get in, so if you're a fan of a 10-2 team on the bubble, you should be rooting for the Red Raiders this week and next. Last Week: 7 | Title Odds: (+1200)
8
Texas A&M
I've an honest question for any Aggie reading this. I'm an Illinois fan. I know how I felt looking at my own power ratings and others when I saw Illinois typically ranked outside the top 25 all year, despite the wins (the Wisconsin loss sucked, but was not an outright shock to me). How do you feel when you look at your undefeated Aggies, yet see them ranked as low as No. 8 here and even lower elsewhere? Does it make you nervous, or are you outright dismissive of the numbers? There are no wrong answers. I'm only checking your temperature. Last Week: 8 | Title Odds: (+750)
9
Utah
Messing around with Kansas State in a 51-47 win will cause some to be dismissive of the Utes, and I get it. They've lost to the two best teams they faced and shouldn't have been in that spot against the Wildcats. But I still think this team is good, and if I'm hosting a first-round playoff game, this is not an offense I'd be excited to welcome to town right now. Fortunately for those teams, the odds of Utah sneaking into the field are low. Last Week: 9 | Title Odds: (+12500)
10
Ole Miss
Want to take this moment to let all the Ole Miss fans who are tired of Lane Kiffin's incessant flirting and attention-seeking behavior know that I empathize with you. Like you, I'd also like this to be over so we can move on. I also find it tacky for this to be going on when the Rebels still have a lot to play for. I mean, you finally break through and reach the playoffs (you're in, don't worry), and you have to deal with this crap? It sucks. Last Week: 10 | Title Odds: (+2700)
11
Miami (Fla.)
I am a Miami respector! Just because I don't see a problem with Notre Dame being ranked ahead of you does not mean I don't respect this team! Believe me, as a neutral observer, there's nothing I'm rooting for harder than Miami getting into the field and having to play Georgia in the first round. That's the kind of storyline we dream of in this industry. Last Week: 12 | Title Odds: (+6000)
12
Oklahoma
Crimson & Cream Iowa jumps back into our top 12 after a thrilling 17-6 win over Missouri last weekend. My god, it's ugly, but the results are the results. The Sooners put opponents and viewers into a chokehold for 3.5 hours every Saturday, relying on the chance they'll all just eventually give up. And they do. Last Week: Not Ranked | Title Odds: (+4000)

Fell outside Top 12: USC