We've reached midseason in college football, and like last year, we're bringing up Notre Dame's unsettling playoff predicament under Marcus Freeman.
Two years removed from a national championship appearance, this is not where the Fighting Irish expected to be after missing the bracket last fall. Coming out of Saturday night's loss at BYU, Notre Dame moved back two spots to No. 4 and, more importantly, missed out on the first of three CFP resume-building opportunities this season.
Notre Dame's Nov. 7 showdown against unbeaten and top-ranked Miami has been designated as one of college football's most important games since the summer. Now, it brings considerably more intrigue for the now one-loss Fighting Irish.
How's it going to look to the CFP Selection Committee if Notre Dame goes 0-for-2 in big-game spots just as it did last season, leading to a bowl opt-out after Freeman's team was excluded from the playoff field?
"Everybody's got to hold themselves accountable during this process," Freeman said Saturday night ahead of Notre Dame's open date before Navy on Oct. 31. "We'll be ready."
As far as metrics go, the numbers are still solid for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish rank fourth nationally in game control, No. 14 in strength of record and 42nd in strength of schedule, which is actually higher than other contenders like UCLA (51st), Miami (58th) and Texas Tech (82nd).
However, Notre Dame loses control of its own destiny with another loss and puts the onus on the selection committee should it finish 10-2 and find itself situated in a logjam of teams with similar records and largely better resumes.
The Fighting Irish do have one built-in advantage other potential at-large selections do not this season — a contractual safety net. Beginning in 2026, the Fighting Irish are guaranteed a CFP berth if they finish inside the selection committee's top 12. That protection comes from the memorandum of understanding signed in spring 2025, per athletic director Pete Bevacqua.
As an independent, there's no conference championship requirement, and automatic qualifiers cannot squeeze them out of the field if they meet that threshold. There's no Selection Sunday anxiety from Freeman and his players if they get to 11 wins, and there's a chance 10 could be enough if SMU is still ranked and comes to South Bend 9-1 overall in late November.
CFP scenarios for Notre Dame
The objective is clear to guarantee a playoff appearance — win out. The shot at a top-four seed and first-round bye might be over after the loss in Provo, but the Fighting Irish's season-long goals remain in front of them with five games to play.
The situation gets tricky, however, if any of the following scenarios happen:
- Notre Dame finishes 10-2 with a win over Miami and loss to SMU
- Notre Dame finishes 10-2 with a loss to Miami and win over SMU
- Notre Dame finishes 10-2 with wins over Miami, SMU and a loss to Navy, Boston College or Syracuse
Two wins over ranked teams despite a late-season upset loss would look better to the selection committee than those first two options, given the fact that very few candidates have multiple top-25 victories at this point.
And with BYU's victory over the weekend pushing the Big 12 to three unbeatens at midseason, that sets up the conference to be a two-bid league, threatening other at-large candidates from the SEC, Big 12 and Notre Dame.
You know the 12-team bracket setup by now, but for a refresher — four auto-bids to Power Four conference champions, one auto-bid to the Group of Six's highest-ranked teams and seven at-large slots.
Notre Dame's battling for one of seven remaining spots in the bracket, and the only foolproof way to get there is winning out.
