Journalists shed light on the truth, so we should hold ourselves accountable, even when it comes to the foolhardy practice of making preseason predictions. Yes, even those "bold" predictions we make, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, are no less intriguing in the summer doldrums, when we dream of everything that looks or smells like college football.
In July and August, the CBS Sports staff made preseason predictions for each power conference; some bold, some mundane. At the halfway point of the 2026 season, we thought it the perfect time to revisit those picks and share some of the prognostications we got wrong, or at least now improbable in late October.
But please, show us some grace. This has been a wild season. Just last week, five of the top seven teams in the AP Top 25 lost for the first time in history. Predictions, as you see, can be like aimlessly punching air to knock out a gnat.
To serve our readers, we picked the 10 most egregious preseason predictions. Let's see where the staff stood before the season. And then check out this article for our bold predictions for the rest of the way.
The wrongest of the wrong preseason predictions
Michigan will average more than 35 points per game
The prediction: Tom Fornelli posited in his bold predictions that the Wolverines would improve upon their 24.8-point scoring average from Sherrone Moore's two seasons. In fact, he believed the offense would resemble the 2023 unit that averaged 37.3 points.
What happened: Well, they're not close. In fact, it's worse than we thought. The Wolverines are averaging 22.7 points, ranking 105th nationally, and they changed quarterbacks last week, switching Bryce Underwood for Tommy Carr in a win against Penn State.
Maryland will surprise
The prediction: Richard Johnson and Fornelli unknowingly teamed up to declare Maryland as the Big Ten's most underrated team in the preseason. "The Terps bring back so much of the top-end talent that was young from last year's team," they said.
What happened: The only thing surprising about Maryland is that Mike Locksley is still the head coach. The Terps are 2-5 and rank 83rd in total defense after a 37-30 loss to Rutgers last week. Locksley, who is 2-20 against Big Ten opponents since 2024, fired defensive coordinator Ted Monachino on Sunday.
Oregon will win the national championship
The prediction: Several of us, myself included, predicted Oregon to win the national title and emerge as the Big Ten's champion because of the massive return of talent, including QB Dante Moore, WR Evan Stewart and defensive lineman Matayo Uiagalelei.
What happened: The Ducks are technically still alive in the CFP race with two losses, but one setback was a road loss at Oklahoma State. Dan Lanning also has quarterback issues, with Dante Moore (concussion) still missing in action. Brock Thomas started last week, but Dylan Raiola came off the bench in the fourth quarter and threw a touchdown in the final minute to beat Nebraska, his former team. I projected Penn State to win the national title last season, so it's your fault for listening to me about Oregon!
TCU's Jaden Craig wins Big 12 Player of the Year
The prediction: Harvard transfer Jaden Craig garnered buzz in the offseason because of his arm and athleticism pairing with new offensive coordinator Gordan Sammis. That led Chip Patterson and Richard Johnson to jump on the hype train.
What happened: Craig's Week 0 debut in Ireland against North Carolina was a mess, but he rebounded in Week 2 and 3 against lesser competition. Still, his passer rating (152.5) ranks seventh in the Big 12. He has thrown 10 touchdowns against five interceptions, tying for the second-most picks in the conference. He has thrown three TDs against four interceptions in Big 12 play.
Cam Coleman, All-American
The prediction: Cam Coleman came to Texas via Auburn with a lot of hype, if not necessarily the production. Many of us assumed the Tigers just hadn't figured out how to tap into his five-star talent, so we slotted him as a first-team selection on CBS Sports' All-America team.
What happened: Coleman isn't even Texas' top receiver, let alone one of the country's three best. His talent is obvious in person, but he has only one "wow" game: a 110-yard performance in a loss to Oklahoma. He averages three catches for 56 yards per game and fans are frustrated with his efforts in perimeter blocking.
Utah is the most overrated team in the country
The prediction: Chip Patterson did his research and correctly pointed out that Utah had a lot to replace in the trenches, which gave him pause about the preseason hype under first-year head coach Morgan Scalley. He saw Utah as a mid-tier Big 12 team that didn't belong in the Top 25.
What happened: Utah is one of six remaining undefeated teams in the FBS -- and one of three from the Big 12. The Utes play the biggest game of Week 8 when it hosts one-loss Houston on Saturday. Utah has captured our attention with its creative two-quarterback package.
Washington is the Big Ten's most underrated team
The prediction: Chris Hummer projected that Washington would surprise this season, thanks in part to the return of quarterback Demond Williams, who briefly flirted with the transfer portal in January. He even went as far to predict Washington would be ranked in the top 10.
What happened: A manageable first-half schedule was supposed to lift Jedd Fisch's Huskies into the national conversation. It didn't. Despite playing five home games in seven weeks, the Huskies lost three straight games and are 4-3. They're averaging only 27.9 points, the running game is abysmal (130th nationally) and Demond Williams Jr. is injured.
Texas A&M is the most underrated team in the country
The prediction: David Cobb pointed to "one of the most experienced rosters in college football," coming off an 11-2 season, and potential all-SEC quarterback Marcel Reed as reasons to consider Texas A&M a national sleeper.
What happened: Texas A&M lost at home to Kentucky in Week 3, was bludgeoned at LSU the next week, and then lost by three touchdowns at Missouri two weeks later. At his best this season, Marcel Reed is a middle-tier quarterback. He ranks 15th in the SEC with 175.3 passing yards per game and is dead last in quarterback rating (112.5), to go along with seven touchdown passes and six interceptions. It's a frustrating year in College Station. It's enough for a head coach to call out one of the country's biggest fan bases.
Texas wins the national championship
The prediction: It was always playoff-or-bust for Texas. The Longhorns entered the season with its most talented team since the mid-2000s, wrote Chris Hummer and Richard Johnson. They had "no obvious holes" on the roster with "game-changers everywhere on offense and defense," making them "a team built to win in January."
What happened: We didn't realize Arch Madness was actually insanity, not a trend. Manning rallied Texas to beat Ohio State, but it's mostly been downhill since. He's been abysmal at times, absorbing five sacks in a home loss to unranked Florida last week and ranking ninth in the SEC in passer rating (145.2). The additions of RBs Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown have not paid off and the Longhorns rank 102nd nationally in rushing (135 yards per game). The problem is the offensive line, which allows 2.8 sacks per game, tying for 120th. Changes have to be coming on the staff and, potentially, at quarterback. The Longhorns' CFP dreams are fading fast following back-to-back losses.
Jeremiah Smith will not win the Heisman
The prediction: None of our experts picked Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith to win the Heisman Trophy. Those who were selected include Oregon QB Dante Moore, Ohio State QB Julian Sayin, Texas QB Arch Manning, Notre Dame QB CJ Carr and Miami QB Darian Mensah. Yup, all quarterbacks.
What happened: Jeremiah Smith is the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy midway through the season. Behind him in the FanDuel odds are Mensah, Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss and Notre Dame QB CJ Carr. Smith tied the Big Ten's career receiving touchdown record (39) in the 19-15 win at Indiana last week and now holds multiple school records as he approaches the back half of the schedule with 984 yards and 12 touchdown catches (both second nationally behind Oregon State freshman phenom Jesse Legree).
