Lincoln Riley bet big on Jayden Maiava -- and it's paying off with USC in College Football Playoff contention

For the second time in four years under Lincoln Riley, but for the first time since 2022, USC is entering late November with a top-15 ranking and a shot at the College Football Playoff. If the last year in the Pac-12 and the first year of Big Ten play were bumps in the transitional road, this season has marked a return to form for the Trojans in a new league. 

As we prepare for Week 13 and a massive showdown with Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+ Premium), the Trojans have a 6-1 record in conference play and are currently tied with the Ducks and Michigan for third place in the Big Ten. Riley's hiring sought to propel USC back to the center of the college football universe, and though the landscape looks much different than previous title-winning tenures in LA, the current outlook does have the Trojans where they hoped to be for the games that matter the most. 

So, to this point, the 2025 campaign has been a success in Los Angeles. But finishing strong, which includes a win against Oregon on the road in Autzen Stadium, will require one of the biggest bets from Riley's early tenure to pay off. That bet would be that Jayden Maiava is the quarterback that can lead USC's offense to the doorstep of the College Football Playoff like Caleb Williams did three years ago. 

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Maiava is not currently in the Heisman Trophy conversation like Williams was in 2022, but what he has done is been one of the most productive and effective quarterbacks in the country. USC ranks 2nd nationally in yards per play (7.43) and 10th in scoring offense, averaging 38.2 points per game. Maiava individually leads the Big Ten in passing yards per game (286.8) and yards per attempt (9.5), but among quarterbacks in his own conference, he has both less touchdowns and more interceptions than Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, Ohio State's Julian Sayin, Illinois' Luke Altmyer and Oregon's Dante Moore. The Trojans' quarterback has been very, very good this season. But for this to be considered a great season, Maiava needs to do what he did when he won over Riley -- finish the season strong. 

How Maiava won Riley's support 

When Williams opted out of the Holiday Bowl at the end of the 2023 season, it opened a door for backup Miller Moss to make a record-breaking statement at the quarterback position. Moss threw for 372 yards and six touchdowns in a 42-28 win against Louisville that appeared to to solidify his hold on the starting job for the post-Caleb era at USC. But then Riley and USC's staff landed a commitment in the transfer portal from Maiava, who had just led UNLV to its most wins since 1984 and its first-ever appearance in the Mountain West Championship Game.  

Moss started the season and saw mixed results as he and his team found themselves on the wrong end of some one-score games and dealt with inconsistency in their performance across 2024. Riley opted to make a late-season change at quarterback, moving Maiava into the starting position for the final three games of the regular season and the bowl game. 

After months of waiting his turn and preparing for an opportunity, Maiava led USC to wins against Nebraska, UCLA and Texas A&M with 14 total touchdowns (11 passing, three rushing) across the four games. The only loss came in a 49-35 defeat to rival Notre Dame, who eventually finished as the national runner-up. Moss opted to transfer out of the program, eventually landing at Louisville, and then USC had a decision to make about the future of the quarterback room. 

There is something that can be read into how coaches handle the quarterback position in the transfer portal era, both from action but also from inaction. The Trojans had already flipped and secured a commitment from five-star prospect Husan Longstreet, now a freshman on the team, and as both the winter and spring portal windows were open in the 2024-25, there was not a lot of chatter about USC getting in the mix for top portal quarterbacks. 

Riley explained in a conversation with the Cover 3 Podcast heading into the 2025 season that USC believed in Maiava and the rest of the room, and that investing in those players was a move that the Trojans felt good about given the way that the previous season had ended. 

"Well first the four games he played for us, we went 3-1, he gave us a great chance to beat Notre Dame," Riley explained. "He made some big-time plays against four really good defenses, those were really challenging teams to start off your USC football career. So I think the way he played in those games, the way our team responded to him, the way he played in clutch situations really showed a lot to me."

There was an acknowledgement that there was still plenty to work on heading into 2025, like taking care of the football (Maiava did have six interceptions across those four games while going 3-1) and also growing into his position as a leader on the team. But Riley was drawn to the way that Maiava carried himself and the way the team responded to his ascension to the starting role, so the bet was made that Maiava could be the quarterback to lead USC back into playoff contention. 

A 'special' team with a special opportunity

It has not always been pretty for USC as the Trojans have marched to an 8-2 record and put themselves in position to contend for the College Football Playoff. But what USC fans and the Trojans coaching staff have seen is a resilience that has not always been there for the Trojans in recent years. After storming back from a double-digit deficit to beat Iowa last week in the unseasonably rainy Coliseum, Riley noted that USC has been a second-half team for much of the season and credited the whole group for answering the call when the conditions got tough and injuries started to mount. It's a USC team that has found different ways to win throughout the year, and Maiava is among the many players who have spoken to the culture that's coming from a player-led group. 

Riley told Cover 3 before the year that one of the goals for Maiava in 2025 was "find his voice as a leader." As we head into late November and hear multiple accounts about how this Trojans team is built with different DNA than previous editions, it's hard overlook the impact that USC's QB1 has had on leading a group that has not wilted in tough situations.  

"Building that relationship with the guys," Maiava said this week speaking to 247Sports' The Tunnel Vision Podcast. "Whether it be on the field or off the field. That dialogue that we share, the team camaraderie. This team is a really special team, I'm super grateful to be a part of it." 

Now this special team has a special opportunity to make the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history. 

According to most recent data from SportsLine's Inside The Lines, the Trojans have a 23.5% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 5.1% chance to finish in the top two of the Big Ten conference standings. That comes from being a two-loss team this deep in the season, yes, but also by logging crucial wins against Michigan and Iowa while avoiding any bad losses. After back-to-back years of hovering around .500 in conference play (in both the Pac-12 and the Big Ten), USC finds itself in a three-way tie for third place in the Big Ten standings and also as a live candidate to claim an at-large bid to the CFP if the team can win out and get some help elsewhere. 

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A tough road test for Maiava and the Trojans

That 23.5% chance drops significantly with a loss on Saturday at Oregon, who has its own path and story to navigate as the Ducks seek redemption from last year's one-and-done showing in the CFP. Oregon coach Dan Lanning has seen the way Maiava leads USC on tape and spent time during media availability this week offering praise for the Trojans' signal-caller. 

"He's not given enough credit, for one," Lanning said of Maiava. "He's more athletic than people realize. He throws the ball well. I think he keeps his eyes downfield even when the rush is imminent and coming close, and does a really good job. He can certainly beat you with his legs in the run game. He's a complete quarterback, plays with toughness. He's a wants-to-go-get-it guy, he wants to compete until the end and shows up consistently for them." 

Lanning, a former defensive coordinator, is well-aware of the dangers that Maiava can pose, especially with future NFL wide receivers Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane stressing the defense with their play-making ability. But Oregon has at its disposal one of the top passing defenses in the country, currently ranked No. 1 among all FBS teams allowing just 127.3 passing yards per game, and No. 1 among all FBS teams in opponents pass efficiency rating (94.26). The Ducks pose, without a doubt, one of the toughest challenges for Maiava this season and potentially one of the toughest challenges of his career when you take the setting into consideration. 

Autzen Stadium is well-known as having one of the great home-field advantages in college football, with a packed house that spends four quarters making non-stop noise powered by a passion for Ducks football that now extends generations. More than a decade separated from being a "new-money" program in big-time college football, Autzen has wrought havoc for opponents and could be a problem for Maiava given some of his issues this season on the road. 

In six home games this season, Maiava has thrown 14 touchdowns to two interceptions, completed 74.5% of his passes for 10.7 yards per attempt and carries a 189.7 passer rating. For comparison, the best passer rating this season across all games is Julian Sayin at 186.2. 

But across four road games this season, Maiava has thrown just four touchdowns to four interceptions, completed 57.4% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt and carries a road game passer rating of 129.7. In home games Maiava has been a Heisman Trophy contender, but away from the Coliseum the statistics point to more of a top-50 or top-75 caliber quarterback at the FBS level. 

When Maiava talks about ways that Lincoln Riley, a renown quarterback guru, has improved his game the USC quarterback will point to decision-making and the work that's done in the film room with the other quarterbacks. Now Maiava will be tasked with making the right decisions in one of the most hostile environments in the sport with the biggest stakes of the season. Much of 2025 has been defined by USC being resilient and finding different ways to win, but in an battle of the Big Ten's best it is time for Riley's bet on Maiava to pay off. If Maiava can take care of the football and allow that chemistry with his teammates to pay off in game-changing plays, the Trojans will have a shot to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive for another week.