College football Week 1 betting guide: Proven expert breaks down four games, including Notre Dame vs. Miami

Bruce Marshall, longtime executive editor of The Gold Sheet and a SportsLine college football expert, dives into the biggest games in Week 1 of the 2025 college football season on Saturday and Sunday, including Syracuse and No. 24 Tennessee battling at noon on Saturday and an epic showdown featuring No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 10 Miami on Sunday night. Those interested in college football betting can benefit greatly from Marshall's insights, as the expert is 64-43-3 (+1624) in his last 110 college football picks. Here's the information he's working with for Saturday and Sunday's games.

Syracuse at No. 24 Tennessee (8/30, Noon ET)

UCLA and Tennessee essentially traded quarterbacks over the summer, as Joey Aguilar -- who transferred to the Bruins after playing for Appalachian State last year -- landed with the Volunteers after the Nico Iamaleava NIL controversy unraveled in Knoxville. Aguilar's ascent into the starting role for Josh Heupel at UT comes after just a couple of weeks of work in fall camp. While productive the past two seasons for App State, passing for nearly 6,800 yards and 56 TDs, Aguilar was also a bit careless at times, tossing 24 picks across the past two seasons, which Heupel will be keeping a close eye upon before the meat of the schedule kicks on. Aguilar isn't the only new face for the Vols offense, which is also minus bellcow RB Dylan Sampson, who gained 1,485 rushing yards a year ago and is now with the Cleveland Browns, while Aguilar will also be working with a new collection of targets and a mostly rebuilt OL featuring several portal adds.

Comparatively speaking, it's been a bit more calm at Syracuse, where Fran Brown was able to work Notre Dame transfer QB Steve Angeli into the mix in spring to smooth the transition from Kyle McCord. There is cautious optimism at the Dome regarding Angeli, with another transfer (LSU's Rickie Collins) waiting in the wings, though there is a bit of concern about replacing other established playmakers like RB LeQuint Allen (now with the Jaguars) and TE Oronde Gadsden (Chargers), both now in the NFL. It's a portal-heavy offense, while the defense is going to need some new playmakers and big-play elements to emerge.  

There are trends to note both ways here, with Brown 5-2 as a dog in his first trip around the track for the Orange, while Heupel has covered nine straight regular-season games vs non-SEC foes. Still, the Vols have flattened out somewhat against the spread since later in the 2023 campaign, just 7-9 since, and we note word from Las Vegas sources that roughly 75% of all wagers are coming in on the Tennessee side. There seems to be some resistance to post this number at 14, however, and the books have put themselves in a position to need Syracuse. We wouldn't mind the underdog here; given the competitive bent the Orange displayed last year in many close games. There are also some strong Over trends from late last season both ways, but with each side breaking in so many new faces on the attacking end, we might rather stay away from the totals for each until further notice.

Northwestern at Tulane (8/30, Noon ET)

Former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff, who emerged as a dynamic leader a year ago when the Cougars threatened a berth in the playoff went an impressive 11-2, was a late portal addition for the Green Wave. Tulane just so happened to be in the market for a QB at a late date after the suspension of TJ Finley, who was expected to take snaps this fall in New Orleans. Retzlaff becoming available early in the summer was akin to dollars dropping from the sky for Tulane and head coach Jon Sumrall.

Sumrall was in the market for a QB in the first place after last fall's revelation, Darian Mensah, made a hasty exit in the early portal, lured by big bucks offered by Duke. With Retzlaff, late arrival and all, expected to get the nod at QB over Iowa transfer Brendan Sullivan, there is cautious optimism that the Wave might not fall too far from last year's 35 PPG output, as among the slew of new starters are several well-regarded portal adds aside from Retzlaff.

Despite the relative calm at the QB position with the Wildcats, who didn't have to wait for July to land former SMU QB Preston Stone, more questions seem to abound with NU, which took a downward turn for second-year head coach David Braun last fall after a surprising nine-win debut under difficult circumstances (Pat Fitzgerald's dismissal on the effective eve of the season). Last season's 4-8 mark a year ago would flatter, with the Cats owning one of the nation's worst offenses (ranked 130th). Braun and his staff misused available options at QB, including the mobile Mike Wright (since transferred to East Carolina). Stone, who recorded a 13-3 record as SMU's starter before being displaced by Kevin Jennings, would seem a significant upgrade, except for the fact we might be talking about apples and oranges between his former spell with the Mustangs, piloting Rhett Lashlee's progressive offense, and what might await in Evanston. There was no big-play element in the NU lineup last year, and Big Ten insiders indicate none seem to have established as much in fall camp, either. Defense, Braun's supposed specialty, also regressed somewhat a year ago.

It's worth noting that almost every onlooker in the South believes Sumrall is bound for a Power 4  job, probably sooner rather than later (he's said to be on speed-dial at alma mater Kentucky whenever Mark Stoops decides to leave or steps down), after already establishing his chops at Troy and Tulane the past three years, as his 32-9 SU mark suggests. Sumrall has also recorded a splendid 27-11 spread mark the past three seasons, and the visit of the Cats is being regarded as a bit of a big deal by the Wave, which hasn't hosted a Big Ten visitor since 1955. Retzlaff is likely to hit the ground running much as Mensah did last season, and there was no spread magic a year ago as in 2023 for the Cats, who sagged to 4-7 ATS against FBS-level foes. If there's the gap between these sides that we suspect, this is a price the Wave ought to handle.

Virginia Tech vs. No. 13 South Carolina (8/31, 3 p.m. ET, in Atlanta)

Here's the second half of the ACC-SEC weekend doubleheader at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, filled with all sorts of sidebar stories. Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer is going up against his alma mater, where he not only played but also coached as an assistant -- all under his legendary dad Frank, Tech's all-time winningest coach. Many Hokies fans dream of a reunion someday with the younger Beamer, who steered South Carolina into contender status in the SEC a year ago. 

Those dreams are partly due to a growing dissatisfaction with fourth-year head coach Brett Pry, who got the Hokies to a second straight bowl a year ago but also fell short of expectations, which included Tech making a bid for a potential playoff berth as an expected top contender in the ACC. Instead, the Hokies lost their opener in OT at Vanderbilt, setting the tone for a frustrating campaign in which Pry's team lost every close game it played. Five of the six regular-season losses came by seven points or fewer, and the other loss by 10 (vs. eventual league champ Clemson). 

The offense has a familiar face in dual-threat Kyron Drones returning at QB, but new faces are almost everywhere else on the offensive side. On the expected plus side, an infusion of well-regarded portal adds along the OL (some following new OL coach Matt Moore from West Virginia) suggests any adjustment phase might be brief. New OC Philip Montgomery, formerly head coach at Tulsa, has also done his best work in the past with mobile QBs like Drones, while also featuring a downhill running dimension, which ought to suit Bowling Green transfer RB Terion Stewart just fine.

Pry's defense will have its hands full with Gamecocks QB LaNorris Sellers, getting peripheral Heisman mentions after a breakthrough 2024. Almost impossible to bring down when escaping the pocket, Sellers is a punishing dual-threat who also passed for 2504 yards last season. He worked in harmony with OC Dowell Loggains, who has since taken the head coaching job at App State; we'll see how it goes as Mike Shula (remember him?) gets another shot at a coordinator job in Loggains' place, and Beamer got some good news within the past week as Utah State transfer RB Rahsul Faison had his eligibility finally cleared. Some SEC sources, however, wonder if Beamer's defense might miss some of the linemen that bossed many offenses last season. Three of them were taken in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft -- not the sort of performers who are easily replaced -- while both linebackers need replacing, too. 

Though the price has dropped slightly, there are a number of shrewd observers in both the SEC and ACC who wonder if the Gamecocks are ripe for an upset, as it took a while for Beamer's team to hit its stride last season. The fact the Hokies played so many foes close a year ago makes the spread look interesting.

No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 10 Miami (8/31, 7:30 p.m. ET)

The Fighting Irish made it all of the way to the title game last season and are generally considered to be odds-on to not only make it back, but perhaps in better style than a year ago. Such hype (or overhype), however, is often part of the territory for Notre Dame. The season win total of 10.5 confirms high expectations, but history suggests that those considering the Over ought to be approaching the new campaign with some real caution. Only once in the 70 years since has Notre Dame had zero or one losses in back-to-back regular seasons. We aren't including the 2020 Covid campaign under Brian Kelly, but the specific trick was turned only once by Lou Holtz (1988-89). Is this team really up to the task?

After Notre Dame rode a pair of veteran transfer QBs from the ACC (Wake Forest's Sam Hartman in 2023, Duke's Riley Leonard last year), Marcus Freeman has opted for redshirt freshman CJ Carr, who admittedly has plenty of upside but also no game experience. Playmakers seem to abound in the supporting cast, including electric RB Jeremiyah Love, getting Heisman mentions after his 1,125 rushing yards a year ago, and big-play wideout Jaden Greathouse. The Irish ran for 200 yards per game a year ago, but that was with a veteran QB at the controls. Carr is going to have to hit the ground running, as the two likely toughest games on the schedule (this opener, and next week vs. Texas A&M) are right out of the chute.

Decorated Notre Dame DC Al Golden, last year's Broyles Award winner as the top assistant in the country, has moved back to the NFL as the DC for the Bengals. Chris Ash, formerly an Ohio State DC and Rutgers head coach, takes his place, though Golden leaves some big shoes to be filled.

Meanwhile, Miami went back to the portal to find a new QB, which worked pretty well last year when Cam Ward arrived from Washington State. This year, it's former Georgia QB Caron Beck, who when last seen had suffered a disturbing elbow injury in the SEC title game vs. Texas that kept him out of the playoff game (vs. Notre Dame) at the Sugar Bowl. If Beck's arm is good, as reports suggest, Mario Cristobal shouldn't experience too much drop-off at QB. There is experience along the OL, though transfers are going to have to step into featured roles at the skill positions (watch WR CJ Daniels, who has caught more than 2,400 yards worth of passes at Liberty and LSU). 

It's worth noting that Cristobal's defense was outstanding the first month of last season before springing a few leaks later in a 2024 campaign, in which the Hurricanes carried an unbeaten mark into mid-November. A disruptive DL lead by edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. could cause headaches for a QB like Carr making his first-ever start.

We would be remiss to not mention some of the point spread magic delivered by Freeman, whose performances ATS, the past two seasons in particular, have been extraordinary; try 23-6 (!) across the past 29 games. That being said, Freeman hasn't had to worry about a redshirt freshman QB making his first career start in hostile environment before, either. 

If one of these sides starts a bit slow, our guess is it might be the Irish, and that small plus price for Miami could even come in handy in an expected close game. As an aside, it's also not out of the realm of possibility that any Under bets on Notre Dame's 10.5 wins could be ready to cash by next Saturday. After all, history says that Over 10.5 will prove as mighty a challenge as the Canes or Aggies the next two weeks.