Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Texas falls out despite key win, slumping Miami hangs around
Plus, Oklahoma reappears after a major road win keeps its CFP hopes alive for another week
By
Tom Fornelli
•
7 min read
The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season will be released Tuesday night, and I'm sure everybody will agree with them and think they're perfect. There certainly won't be any crying about how some teams are ranked too high because "they haven't played anybody," or that some teams are getting far too much credit for games they lost.
Honestly, my favorite part of the rankings reveal every week is when the committee chairman has to answer a bunch of questions about why teams are ranked where they are, and is forced to give a bunch of answers that will inevitably conflict with other answers they've already given.
It's a no-win situation because the rankings aren't an exact science, and never will be. It's a sport that now features 136 teams playing at the same level, and a playoff that will include only 12 of them, with five of those 12 spots guaranteed to conference champions. And everybody is playing a different schedule that will vary wildly based on what conference they call home now, because of how valuable a television brand they are.
It's a wonderful system!
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But while your brain is about to become flooded by CFP rankings and what they mean, remember these rankings are not meant to be the same as those, or either of the major national polls. Like those rankings, these are imperfect. If I knew how to create a perfect power rating for college football, the last thing I would be doing is sharing it publicly. I'd be using it to make enough money to finance my life of golfing around the world.
The best way to view these rankings, in relation to the playoff, is that this would be what the top 12 would look like if the committee's only goal was to produce a tournament that would have the smallest spreads possible, and viewed regular-season games as nothing more than a device to predict future results. It'd be a horrible way to determine the best team in any given season, but an incredible television event. Which, come to think of it, is exactly what the College Football Playoff is.
Odds below via FanDuel Sportsbook.
2025 Fornelli Power Ratings
| 1 |  |
| I wrote about Julian Sayin following  Ohio State's cruise control win over Penn State Saturday, because he's playing incredibly well and not receiving a ton of credit for it nationally, yet, because so many people think the Ohio State QB job is "plug-and-play" due to the talent around him. It's certainly a great situation to be surrounded by as a QB, but Sayin has elevated this passing attack from where it was with Will Howard, and his continuing ascendance just makes this Buckeyes team even more difficult to beat than it already was. Last Week: 1 | Title Odds: +220 | |
| 2 |  |
| I'd been wondering if Curt Cignetti might take a more cautious approach this year now that Indiana is more established as a title contender, but it doesn't look like that'll be the case! The Hoosiers put up 55 points on Maryland a week after hanging 56 on UCLA . They've scored at least 50 points in five of their nine games this year. Now, for those wondering, a lot of the stats the Hoosiers rack up late in these games come in what I consider "garbage time" in my ratings, so they don't impact Indiana's rating. The Hoosiers are No. 2 because of everything they do that puts them in so many garbage-time situations. Last Week: 2 | Title Odds: +460 | |
| 3 |  |
| I don't look at my ratings as infallible, and much like many of you reading, there are rankings I don't necessarily agree with. Oregon is a team that I look at and wonder if it is truly as good as its rating suggests. The Ducks remain third here for another week, and have been in the top three all season, but I look at this team's final four games and I'm skeptical they'll get through them unscathed. They don't inspire the same level of confidence in me that the two teams above them do. Last Week: 3 | Title Odds: +950 | |
| 4 |  |
| Alabama had the weekend off and will return to action this week at home against an LSU team that won't have Brian Kelly scowling on the sideline anymore. Considering the Tide are 31-1 at home since 2021, I like their chances of winning that game. Last Week: 4 | Title Odds: +750 | |
| 5 |  |
| The Aggies had the weekend off, too, and return to action this week on the road against a Missouri team missing its starting quarterback. This will also be A&M's third consecutive game on the road. Last Week: 5 | Title Odds: +900 | |
| 6 |  |
| The final score of Notre Dame's 25-10 win at Boston College won't impress anybody who didn't watch the game, but don't worry, it was a dominant performance. It just wasn't the kind of dominant performance that saw the Irish score a bunch of points. Boston College's plan to just hold onto the ball all game so the Irish couldn't blow them out too badly was effective enough. I mean, who doesn't love a 21-play field goal drive that takes 11:20 off the clock? Last Week: 6 | Title Odds: +1200 | |
| 7 |  |
| Georgia beat Florida 24-20 to improve to 5-1 in SEC play, and four of their SEC games this season have been one-score games. There's a part of me that wonders if Georgia's approach of feeling their opponent out in the first half before hitting the gas after halftime will catch up to it at some point, but it's hard to blame the Dawgs for the approach. It works for them. I do think this week's road trip to Starkville with Texas looming afterward could be kind of trap-gamey. Last Week: 7 | Title Odds: +1300 | |
| 8 |  |
| Texas Tech got Behren Morton back and went on the road to beat a Kansas State team that had been playing better by 23 points. It was a great defensive performance that saw the offense join the party late. The Raiders have a massive game looming against BYU this weekend. For what it's worth, the Cougars aren't included in the column this week, but they've climbed up to No. 13 in my power ratings this week. Last Week: 10 | Title Odds: +2000 | |
| 9 |  |
| I heard from a lot of BYU and Cincinnati fans last week for having Tech and Utah in my top 12, but not the Cougars and Bearcats. A lot of it was misunderstanding what these ratings are, but some of it was saying I was vastly overrating a Utes team that has already lost to BYU. Then the Utes went and beat Cincinnati by 31. These ratings are designed to pick the most likely outcome , not the only possible outcome! That 31-point win is an example of that. Yes, my ratings had Utah winning the game more often than not, but the most likely outcome was around 10 points. A 31-point win was an outlier possibility. Last Week: 11 | Title Odds: +10000 | |
| 10 |  |
| There had been little movement in the ratings this week, but Ole Miss drops two spots despite beating South Carolina 30-14. There are a lot of reasons this can happen. One thing to consider, which is the biggest reason why Texas finally fell out of my top 12, is that as the season goes on, the ratings don't factor in preseason data nearly as much. You have to have some because it does have predictive value, but the more current data you have available, the more it should "weigh" in the current ratings. Ole Miss was passed because Texas Tech and Utah no longer carry a lot of the 2024 "baggage" in their ratings. Last Week: 8 | Title Odds: +1900 | |
| 11 |  |
| Oklahoma's schedule is a nightmare, and it is more likely to cost the Sooners a playoff bid than not, but there's no denying this is a good football team. The Sooners went on the road and beat Tennessee 33-27, bouncing back from their home loss to Ole Miss. If they win two of their final three games, the Sooners will have a legit argument for an at-large spot even with three losses. Still, while the committee talked about how it will value SOS more in its rankings, there's a part of me wondering if they only intend to do so when comparing teams with the same record. So if it's down to a 9-3 Oklahoma or a 10-2 Big Ten team, we don't know how much SOS will matter, which is why Oklahoma should just win all three! You know, in case that wasn't already their plan! Last Week: Not Ranked | Title Odds: +6500 | |
| 12 |  |
| Gee, I wonder what I'll hear about the most this week. Might it be that Texas fell out of the top 12 after a win, while Miami hangs around despite its second loss in the last three games? Maybe! Yeah, listen, like I said, there are parts of my ratings I don't always agree with, but I will point out that the Canes were never higher than No. 6 in my ratings while still undefeated, and that lasted only a week. Now they're right back where I had them to start the season at No. 12. Last Week: 9 | Title Odds: +12500 | |
Fell outside Top 12: Texas
