College Football Playoff Predictions: A 3-loss SEC team in field is coming this fall

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Week 7 of the college football season was a week that felt like one that will have ramifications at the end of the season. While some results were bigger than others in the present, many felt meaningful and showed cracks that could develop into chasms as the season progresses.

I don't want to get into the habit of making Bold Predictions in this column every week, but I don't know how bold what I'm about to say actually is. My primary takeaway from this week's action is we're going to get at least one 3-loss team in the College Football Playoff. There's an outside chance we get two.

The SEC's cannibalization of itself began. The week started with the league having four undefeated teams. It ends with two, and neither of the two (Ole Miss and Texas A&M) is the kind of program whose history you look at and say, "oh yeah, no way either one of these teams is losing a game. These teams have never suffered a heart-breaking late season loss and never will!"

I mean, unless you found Ole Miss' 24-21 win over Washington State to be a seismic event.

I could lose my Big Ten street cred by saying this, but the SEC is like the Big 12 on steroids this year. Unlike the Big 12, it has multiple teams capable of competing for a national title, but like the Big 12, nearly all of its best teams are similar. Like, Alabama goes on the road and beats Missouri 27-24, and you don't feel bad about either team afterward. Alabama wasn't at its best, but it did enough to win, and Mizzou wasn't great, but it still gave itself a chance to beat Alabama. Both teams are capable of beating everybody remaining on their schedule. They're also more capable of losing to a few of the teams remaining than you might think.

College football winners, losers in Week 7: Indiana serves notice in Big Ten, Penn State's slide continues

Shehan Jeyarajah

We also saw Tennessee, LSU and Georgia mess around with Arkansas, South Carolina and Auburn, respectively. And I haven't even mentioned previously undefeated Oklahoma losing by 17 to a Texas team whose playoff chances I declared dead last week (one of those Bold Predictions I was talking about).

I have a difficult time seeing the SEC finish with four teams with two losses or fewer, and I have a more difficult time not seeing the SEC get at least four teams into the field. Particularly when I look over at the Big Ten and see Penn State losing again (also declared dead last week, good job, me) and Oregon falling at home to Indiana. I still think the Big Ten probably gets three in, but I'm not as confident in a fourth. Nor am I confident in either of the Big 12 or ACC getting multiple teams in. Hell, the loser of the SEC Championship game might be 10-3, and there's no world in which the selection committee will punish a championship game loser (of the SEC or Big Ten) harshly enough to knock them out of the field altogether.

So there's probably going to be a 3-loss team in the field. Prepare yourself for it now so you aren't caught off guard later.

I'm not worried about Oregon

I already wrote about Indiana in this column a few weeks ago, and after Saturday's huge road win over Oregon, so if you want to know what I think about the Hoosiers, feel free to read my thoughts. As for the team the Hoosiers beat, I've already seen people treat Oregon the way everybody treats the teams Indiana beats.

Did you know the teams Oregon has beaten this season are only 2-14 against Power Four competition this year? Does that mean Oregon stinks? I mean, the Ducks are only 62-13 over the last six full seasons, and have won only three conference titles across two different leagues in that span. They haven't finished a regular season undefeated since last year! Nor have they been the No. 1 seed in the CFP since last season! How can we be sure they're actually good?

In all seriousness, I'm not saying you shouldn't re-evaluate your opinion of the Ducks after their 30-20 loss to Indiana. We should always reconsider our opinions when presented with new evidence. It's just, after doing so, I'm not changing my opinion of Oregon very much.

I think Indiana is really freaking good, you guys. Take the Indiana uniforms off them and put Michigan's on them, and you probably wouldn't see nearly the same amount of skepticism. Oregon lost at home by 10 points, which stinks for the Ducks, but they lost to a really good team.

A team that's much better than anybody remaining on their schedule. Sure, maybe they slip up once more, but I don't see it happening twice. Tiebreakers might keep this team from reaching the Big Ten Championship, but I have a tough time imagining many scenarios where it misses the 12-team field.

Not buying USC yet

USC's 31-13 win over Michigan Saturday night is easily its best win since joining the Big Ten last year, and improved the Trojans to 5-1 on the season and 3-1 in the Big Ten. The offense overcame injuries to two of its starting offensive linemen and roughly 342 of its running backs to beat the Wolverines, and the Trojans' defense looked excellent. Far better than what we saw from the unit two weeks ago on the road against Illinois.

But I'm not sold yet. I need to see more. The key phrase from three sentences ago was "on the road." USC has been a much different team at home compared to on the road under Lincoln Riley.

USC under Riley	Record	Points per game	Points allowed per game
Home	19-5 (.792)	44.2	24.4
Road/Neutral	12-10 (.545)	33.0	32.3

The win over Michigan is huge, but now the Trojans have to follow it up by going on the road next week to play Notre Dame. Suppose they get past the Irish, they're back on the road in their following game (after a bye) against a 5-1 Nebraska. They play Oregon on the road in the penultimate week of the season, too.

There's a lot left to prove.

Brett Yormark must think outside the box

I don't think Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark had a great time Saturday. Yes, Texas Tech and BYU both won to remain undefeated, but losses by Arizona State, Iowa State and TCU were a gut punch to the league's ability to get multiple teams into the playoff field. It also means that, unless Cincinnati gets enough votes to jump in at the back, BYU and Texas Tech will be the only ranked Big 12 teams in next week's AP Top 25.

I wrote last week that Texas Tech is the class of your league. I wrote earlier in this column that the Big 12 doesn't have multiple national title contenders, which an astute reader of this column should've picked up on. In prior weeks, I would've said the league doesn't have any.

While I don't know if I'm truly ready to say Texas Tech can beat the elite, I am ready to say that it remains the class of this league and is the Big 12's best chance at having somebody make noise in the playoff. The Red Raiders defense is legit nasty, and racked up 9 sacks and 14 tackles for loss in a 42-17 win over Kansas.

So here's what I'm thinking, Brett. Declare Texas Tech the Big 12 champion right now. Give them the next month and a half to prepare for the College Football Playoff and keep quarterback Behren Morton in bubble wrap. Don't let any of the monsters on their defensive line risk an injury. Keep this team fresh for December. It's your best shot.

You're a visionary, Brett. This is the kind of thing a visionary would do. For the Big 12, Brett. Just think about it.

My heart breaks for North Texas

If you didn't watch South Florida and North Texas play Friday night, shame on you. It was a massive game in the race for the American, and therefore, it was a massive game with playoff implications.

If you did watch South Florida and North Texas on Friday, I forgive you for skipping out on the fourth quarter. Yeah, South Florida blew the doors off the Mean Green, winning 63-36. It's a great win for South Florida, which has already beaten Boise State and Florida. If the Bulls win the American, no other G6 program has a snowball's chance in hell of getting the auto bid.

However, my biggest takeaway from the game was sadness for North Texas. There was so much hype surrounding this game for the program. It was a huge moment. It's never been a school with incredible fan support, but with all the hype surrounding this one, and the stakes, the game finally sparked interest in the student body. Everybody showed up. DATCU Stadium was packed.

And all those people saw North Texas get 63 points put on it. The stadium was not nearly as packed in the fourth quarter, and man, my heart goes out to everybody who had been hoping this could be a turning point for the program.

Believe me, I've been following Illinois football closely for 25 years. I have been there too many times. One moment you think things are about to change, and then they don't, and usually in the most painful way possible. It sucks.