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Those in Grapevine, Texas, should be enthralled this weekend by the sheer amount of quality games involving future College Football Playoff representatives as the season nears the midway point. Alabama vs. Georgia, Oregon vs. Penn State and LSU vs. Ole Miss lead a schedule laced with selection committee significance across the board in multiple Power Four conferences.

Several teams already possess resume-boosting wins this season, but conference play is a different animal and separates true contenders from those who simply got off on the right foot through the first four weeks of the campaign.

Our updated playoff rankings have seen their biggest changes of the season entering Week 5 with more shifting coming once the weekend is over and winners emerge from the bevy of nationally-ranked matchups.

Projected College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Miami 

Projected final record: 13-0 (ACC champion)

If college football produces an unbeaten team during a season filled with early parity, the Hurricanes will be that squad. Miami's defense continues to manhandle the opposition and just delivered its most spectacular outing of the year on that side of the football over the weekend against Florida. It was another anemic effort from DJ Lagway and the Gators due to Miami's power at the line of scrimmage. The contest with Florida State in two weeks might be the last remaining hurdle between Mario Cristobal's elite team and an unblemished record with a No. 1 seed to boot.

2. Ohio State

Projected final record: 12-1 (Big Ten champion)

Ohio State's first Big Ten test comes this weekend at Washington, one of the most under-the-radar matchups on Saturday. The Huskies are unbeaten and unranked in anticipation of the national spotlight against the Buckeyes. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. has eight total touchdowns without a turnover this fall and will be in the crosshairs of Ohio State's defensive plan under Matt Patricia. In this one-loss projection for the Buckeyes, we're picking Ohio State to get tripped up away from home during one of the five road games remaining.

3. Georgia  

Projected final record: 12-1 (SEC champion)

Kirby Smart will feel great about his team if they're able to beat Alabama between the hedges this weekend. That would be the Bulldogs' second straight victory over one of the league's fellow elites and provides another quality mark in the resume column ahead of the selection committee's first rankings in a few weeks. For anyone who wondered about Gunner Stockton's ability to lead, he showed it at Tennessee with several late-game completions under pressure. And bigger games are coming for the Bulldogs starting quarterback.

4. Oregon  

Projected final record: 12-1

There are a couple playoff locks after the first quarter of the campaign and the Ducks are one of them. Moving into our top 4 for the first time ahead of the seismic tilt at Penn State in Week 5, Oregon has two more games against top 25 teams after this one and both come inside Autzen Stadium -- against Indiana and USC. Another unbeaten regular season and berth in the Big Ten title game should essentially guarantee a top-4 seed and first-round bye given the resume.

5. Texas Tech

Projected final record: 12-1 (Big 12 champion)

The Red Raiders have been our pick to win the Big 12 since mid-summer and that's not changing following Saturday's win at Utah. For the Red Raiders, BYU is the only other opponent on the schedule currently ranked inside the top 25. TCU and Iowa State are the biggest threats in Texas Tech's path to winning the conference and getting to the playoff, along with keeping Behren Morton upright at quarterback. That said, backup Will Hammond looks more than capable of leading this offense as well after generating 24 fourth-quarter points over the weekend.

6. Florida State

Projected final record: 11-1

Be careful, Seminoles. Friday night's game at Virginia is no walkover and Florida State's strengths will be tested on the road. The Cavaliers' lone loss came to unbeaten NC State, 35-31. After this week, Florida State hosts unbeaten Miami in a matchup we expect to ultimately decide who gets to the ACC title game from the Sunshine State. And if that is the Seminoles' only projected loss of the campaign, an 11-win team with a victory over Alabama in the opener is deserving of a first-round home game.

7. Texas A&M

Projected final record: 11-2

This would be an extremely impressive resume for the Aggies, if they're able to get to the SEC Championship Game this season. The win at Notre Dame should carry weight, even if the Irish finish in the eight- or nine-win range and miss the playoff. Marcel Reed is developing into one of the nation's top quarterbacks and should be able to carry this group the remainder of the campaign. We're looking at a split against LSU and Texas on the road for the Aggies with wins everywhere else.

8. Alabama 

Projected final record: 10-2

We're not buying the Crimson Tide just yet. In fact, it's feasible that Kalen DeBoer's team could lose this weekend in Athens and still finish with 10 wins. If it happens, that would include resume-building wins over nationally-ranked Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. Do you think the selection committee would keep a 10-win Alabama team out of the playoff when those losses came to an elite Florida State squad on the road and eventual SEC champion Georgia? No chance.

9. LSU 

Projected final record: 10-2

Now that we have a month's worth of data points for the Tigers, they're no longer our projected SEC champion. The win at Clemson isn't nearly as sexy given Dabo Swinney's abrupt fall and there are still running game issues to sort out offensively for Brian Kelly, who's now dealing with an injury to chief ballcarrier Caden Durham ahead of Saturday's bout at Ole Miss. The Rebels are unbeaten and favored in the game, the first of many the rest of the way for the Tigers against elite competition.

10. Penn State 

Projected final record: 10-2

The Nittany Lions are outside of our projected top 4 for the first time this season heading into Saturday night's pivotal showdown with Oregon because, bluntly, the Ducks are coming into this one hotter than expected with Dante Moore sizzling at quarterback. Despite Penn State's 3-0 record, it's unclear if the Nittany Lions' first three opponents have actually prepared this team for what they'll face under the lights in Happy Valley. At 10-2 overall, this would mean James Franklin is back in the playoff despite regular-season losses to the Ducks and Buckeyes.

11. Georgia Tech

Projected final record: 11-2

We'll dive deeper into Georgia Tech's extremely clear playoff path later, but it looks like the ACC could be a three-bid league this season considering how favorable the rest of the schedule is for the Yellow Jackets. With Miami and Florida State scoring points in bunches and both already possessing quality nonconference wins this season, commissioner Jim Phillips might be tooting the conference horn ahead of Selection Sunday with three teams inside the top 15 nationally. In this scenario, Georgia Tech finishes runner-up to the Miami-Florida State winner in the league title game.

12. South Florida

Projected final record: 12-1 (Group of Six champion)

Memphis is streaking after Saturday's win over Arkansas and the Tigers are the latest team from the American who appear to be a worthy challenger to USF and others. Tulane, despite the loss at Ole Miss, is not out of the mix and fellow league unbeatens Navy and North Texas won't go away quietly. Suffice it to say the winner of the American will be the Group of Six representative in the playoff this season, but seeding remains unclear.

13. Oklahoma
14. Tennessee
15. TCU
16. Indiana
17. Ole Miss
18. Texas
19. Memphis
20. Missouri 
21. Iowa State
22. Vanderbilt
23. Michigan  
24. USC
25. Notre Dame

Projected first-round playoff games

  • No. 12 USF at No. 5 Texas Tech 
  • No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Alabama
  • No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Florida State
  • No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Texas A&M

Considering Week 5 in college football is going to shake everything up nationally, our updated first-round matchups look considerably different than our playoff and bowl projections from over the weekend. This stuff is fluid until we get to the home stretch -- or at least the midseason point once several nationally-ranked games this weekend are over. It's hard to imagine the selection committee giving us another Alabama-LSU game considering these teams will play the first weekend of November, but it could happen based on seeding.

Georgia Tech setting up for bid-stealing opportunity

Thanks to its unbeaten start through four games under Haynes King and Brent Key, the Yellow Jackets should have smooth sailing toward a berth in the ACC Championship Game if all goes well from here. Georgia is the only nationally-ranked opponent left on the schedule during rivalry weekend. Georgia Tech misses Florida State and Miami, who meet on Oct. 4. That means the Yellow Jackets could get to Charlotte and conceivably lose their final two games of the season (to Georgia and the Miami-Florida State winner) and still seize an at-large bid at 11-2. 

How many 10-win teams will the SEC produce? Can Indiana -- coming off the blowout win over Illinois -- split remaining nationally-ranked matchups against Oregon and Penn State and get back to the playoff? These are questions that will be answered later on this season and Georgia Tech will factor into that discussion.