10 College Football Playoff guarantees for 2026: Notre Dame embraces villain role, 2 ACC teams get in

College Football Playoff predictions are dangerous business in June, but we love stepping toward the ledge in the heat of summer. With post-spring intel providing a clearer picture of which contenders are built for the sport's biggest stage, several teams appear to have national championship DNA.

In the expanded playoff era, getting in is no longer the ultimate separator. Matchups, seeding and November momentum matter more than ever.

These 10 guarantees come early, but they're not reckless. They're based on expected roster depth, recent trends, quarterback leadership and the ever-important schedule favorability.

So which preseason predictions will hold up? These are 10 College Football Playoff guarantees for the 2026 season you can take to the bank.

1. Notre Dame accepts villain role

Disdain for the Fighting Irish will come easy this season -- and not because they are flawed. Quite the opposite, actually. Notre Dame is once again positioned as a legitimate national championship contender with a top-end roster, a favorable path to the playoff and the type of preseason hype that immediately puts a bullseye on its back.

College football fans love underdogs, but they love rooting against perceived blue bloods even more. 

There's the independence factor, too. While power-conference programs spend the season beating each other up through league schedules, Notre Dame continues to operate outside that structure while letting everyone know it. Fair or not, fans from the SEC, Big Ten and elsewhere will argue the Fighting Irish benefit from avoiding the grind of a nine-game conference schedule while still receiving premium playoff consideration.

With the new CFP rules, it will likely take at least two losses -- probably three -- to keep Notre Dame out of the final top 12 after last season's highly publicized omission. 

The Irish are no longer the program that gets mocked for merely making major bowls. They've become a consistent playoff participant with a roster capable of beating anyone. That shift changes the conversation. When you're winning double-digit games annually and recruiting at an elite level, people stop feeling sorry for you and start rooting for your downfall.

2026 Heisman dark horses: Keelon Russell, Malachi Toney among 6 long shots who could end up in New York

Brad Crawford

2. ACC flexes with second CFP entry 

If Miami is the ACC's clear frontrunner, SMU and Louisville feel like the next two programs poised to crash the playoff conversation. SMU has quarterback stability -- with multi-year starter Kevin Jennings -- and the roster around him to win double-digit games if it handles the league's upper-middle class. The Mustangs are no longer just a feel-good story; they're an annual contender.

Louisville is dangerous for a different reason. The Cardinals have enough balance, physicality and portal-built depth to steal one of those résumé-building wins that change the national conversation. They'll have opportunities early against Ole Miss and SMU to do just that.

In an expanded playoff, the ACC does not need a perfect second team. It needs a double-digit-win contender with momentum, a top-25 profile and a marquee win or two. SMU or Louisville could absolutely be that team behind top-seeded Miami -- and neither has to play the Hurricanes during the regular season.

3. Several SEC teams complain after exclusion

Expect a handful of top-20 teams from the SEC to politick when the selection committee meets for the final time during conference championship weekend. If our early bowl and playoff projections come to fruition, there are as many as six in the nine or 10-win realm vying for what we're expecting to be a couple of at-large spots behind the league's champion. Vanderbilt (10-2) and Texas (9-3) drew the short straw last season. Alabama became the first three-loss, non-conference champion to appear in the playoff. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey may have to change his mind on CFP expansion if the SEC fails to lead the country in playoff participants.

4. Group of Six produces first-time CFP entrant

Liberty. Boise State. James Madison. Tulane. The expanded playoff has brought new Group of Six programs to the forefront. Don't expect that to change this season.

The race for the automatic bid feels as wide open as it has been in years, which is why UNLV and Memphis deserve serious attention as potential first-time CFP participants in 2026. UNLV has built legitimate momentum under Dan Mullen and continues to recruit and develop at a level capable of dominating its conference.

Memphis, meanwhile, remains one of the most consistent winners outside the power conferences, even with first-year coach Charles Huff taking over after Ryan Silverfield's departure to Arkansas. The Tigers have the offensive firepower, experience and schedule flexibility to stack victories and climb the rankings.

In a playoff format that rewards conference champions, both programs have realistic paths to making history this fall. And they'll meet on Aug. 29 in Las Vegas to open the season.

5. LSU enjoys highest YOY increase in viewership

The Tigers were already one of the sport's premier brands, but the arrival of Lane Kiffin makes them must-see television. Love him or hate him, Kiffin moves the needle. 

Casual fans tune in for the drama. LSU fans watch for the expectations. Rival fan bases are hoping for failure. That's the perfect recipe for college football's largest ratings surge in 2026. According to last season's Nielsen numbers, Alabama was the most-watched team with an average viewership of 8.4 million per game, ahead of Texas (7.5M) and Georgia (7.4M). LSU has to nearly double its 2025 average to eclipse the Crimson Tide's numbers from last season, but it's possible.

6. Heisman winner comes from a top-four seed

Recent Heisman Trophy history has made one thing abundantly clear: Team success matters as much as individual brilliance. Voters consistently gravitate toward quarterbacks and playmakers leading national championship contenders, not stars putting up gaudy numbers on eight- or nine-win teams.

The eventual 2026 Heisman winner will almost certainly be the face of a top-four seed, playing meaningful games deep into November while carrying legitimate national title aspirations. Whether it's a quarterback at Miami, Texas, Ohio State, Oregon or another powerhouse, the formula rarely changes. Elite production plus elite team success remains the surest path to college football's most prestigious individual award.

7. Texas Tech-BYU offers high December drama

The Red Raiders handed the Cougars their only two losses in 2025 -- setbacks that ultimately kept them out of the CFP bracket. This time around, BYU returns a nearly identical two-deep and could be favored in every regular-season game except two -- Notre Dame and Utah, both on the road. BYU and Utah are also the only perceived Big 12 title contenders that avoid Texas Tech during the regular season.

Kalani Sitake would like nothing more than to end his mini-skid against Joey McGuire during the final weekend of the season in Arlington. A win there could secure the program's first CFP berth.

8. Big Ten continues reign with fourth straight title

If someone offered me Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana against the field this fall, I'd confidently take that trio. Dan Lanning has the best roster he's assembled at Oregon, while the Buckeyes may boast the nation's most prolific quarterback-wide receiver combination. The Hoosiers need no introduction after what they accomplished under Curt Cignetti, who enters the season with a strong argument as the sport's top coach.

USC, Washington and Michigan shouldn't be ignored, either. It would not surprise me if at least two Big Ten teams reached the semifinals.

The Big Ten's three consecutive national champions have several things in common: elite defenses, manageable regular-season schedules before the CFP and disciplined football.

9. Expect more calendar complaints

An expanded postseason sounds great until you talk to the coaches. Their complaint is simple -- the calendar is broken. Postseason preparation, portal evaluations, roster retention, NIL conversations, recruiting and signing day all happen simultaneously. That's not a football calendar. That's controlled chaos.

And coaches are right to push back. The sport wanted more meaningful postseason games, but it did not clean up the infrastructure around them. Staffs are trying to prepare for elite opponents while re-recruiting their own rosters and fighting off portal poachers. Players are balancing travel, recovery and future decisions. The NFL doesn't operate this way. College football does because every major change gets stacked on top of the last one.

Dan Lanning wants the season to end by Jan. 1. Cignetti has requested improvements. Kirby Smart supports further expansion, provided it doesn't create additional strain during the already chaotic final six weeks of the calendar.

10. Only one unbeaten entering the CFP

And it's going to be Miami or Notre Dame since the two powers meet in November.

I'm bullish on both for different reasons -- primarily Miami's transfer portal additions of Darian Mensah (quarterback, Duke) and Damon Wilson (edge rusher, Missouri), along with Notre Dame's loaded defense. There's a legitimate chance this matchup pits No. 1 against No. 2 entering the season's home stretch.

Refer back to the Heisman prediction if you need additional context. Notre Dame's C.J. Carr and Miami's Mensah will both be Heisman finalists this fall if things unfold as expected.