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The College Football Playoff kicks off this weekend with four first--round games, but which team will win it all? I break down the entire bracket and reveal who I like to advance in each round and win the National Championship. 

CFP first round predictions

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma (Friday, Dec. 19)

We can debate whether or not Alabama should be in the CFP, but that is now irrelevant. The Tide made it, so it's about analyzing the matchup versus Oklahoma.

Say what you want about the Tide, but they played a brutal schedule. Alabama had that span in October where it defeated four top 15 teams in consecutive weeks, something that has never been done. In my opinion, the Tide haven't looked the same since. They were beat up and running on fumes towards the end of the season. I think we see a different Alabama team in the playoffs. 

If you go back to the first matchup between these two teams, Oklahoma was held to 212 total yards and just 4.2 yards per play. The Tide turned the ball over three times and still lost by only two points. 

This will be a defensive slugfest. I think it comes down to which offense makes more plays in the second half. I trust Kalen DeBoer with some time off to figure out ways to attack Oklahoma's aggressive defense. Give me the Crimson Tide to advance.

Pick: Alabama 

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (Saturday, Dec. 20)

Miami caught a bit of a break with this being an early kickoff. However, not all home-field advantages are created equal, and Kyle Field is one of the toughest places to play in the country. If this game were played on a neutral field, I would give Miami a much greater chance of pulling the upset. 

My concern for Miami is Texas A&M will be by far the best defense the Canes have faced this year. I also wonder how good Miami is this season. The Hurricanes lost two games in the weak ACC and the Notre Dame win was way back in August with Irish quarterback CJ Carr making his first career start. 

I think the Canes are going to struggle to score in this matchup. A&M sends a lot of different blitzes on third down, and I expect that to bother Carson Beck, leading to a couple of turnovers. I like the Aggies to prevail at home.  

Pick: Texas A&M

No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (Saturday, Dec. 20)

These two teams met earlier this season and Ole Miss rolled at home 45-10. Of course, a lot has happened down on the Grove since September. 

You may have heard that head coach Lane Kiffin left for LSU, making the Rebels a bit of a wild card in the CFP. Still, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and the Ole Miss offense should be too much for Tulane to contain. 

I think it's closer than the first meeting but Ole Miss pulls away in the second half. 

Pick: Ole Miss

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (Saturday, Dec. 20)

The last game of the first round is also the one with the largest spread. Oregon is laying over three touchdowns at home to James Madison. 

This isn't basketball where we see big first round upsets that makes March Madness so special. The big difference in football is in the trenches. James Madison has an athletic defense but the Ducks have a big edge on both lines. Even if the Dukes hang around for a while, Oregon will wear them down and pull away for an easy win. 

Pick: Oregon 

CFP quarterfinals predictions

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

This should be one of the most competitive matchups in the playoffs. FanDuel made the lookahead line Texas Tech -1.5, and I lean the Red Raiders as well. 

Oregon has faced one defense this season in Indiana with a similar profile to Texas Tech. The Hoosiers held Oregon to 20 points and just 267 total yards. Dante Moore finished with 186 yards and two interceptions. If the Ducks aren't able to run the ball against that stout Texas Tech defensive front, can Moore win a big game with his arm? I'm not so sure. 

I'll take Texas Tech and would also lean Under the total in this matchup. 

Pick: Texas Tech

No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana

If I'm Indiana, I would be rooting for Oklahoma in Round 1. I make the Hoosiers a big favorite in that matchup. Alabama is a more dangerous matchup for the No. 1 seed. 

The Crimson Tide could go one of two ways in the playoffs. Either they are the team that struggled at the end of the season and won't last long, or we see a rejuvenated Alabama squad that can make a run. I think it's going to be the latter. 

I wanted to take the Tide here, but I am a big believer in Curt Cignetti and Indiana. The Hoosiers have two of the most impressive wins of the season over Oregon and Ohio State, both away from home. Give me Indiana, although I expect this to be a really tight game. 

Pick: Indiana

No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia

This would be a rematch of an entertaining game played back in October where Georgia scored 17 fourth quarter points to beat Ole Miss 43-35. The Bulldogs racked up 510 total yards in that meeting, including 221 rushing yards. 

The thing that stands out about that game is Georgia's defense. After allowing 35 points to Ole Miss, the Bulldogs gave up just 70 points across their next six games. That's the difference here. Even though these are conference rivals who know each other well, I think Georgia wins this matchup rather easily. 

Pick: Georgia 

No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State

This is a dangerous game for Ohio State. As good as the Buckeyes have been this season, they struggled to score in their two toughest games against Texas and Indiana. Ohio State went 1-1 in those games and scored a total of 24 points. We know the defense is dominant, but is the offense good enough to win back to back championships? 

I would probably be on Texas A&M as an underdog here. However, I think Ohio State's defense will be the difference in the fourth quarter and that the Buckeyes advance. 

Pick: Ohio State

CFP semifinals predictions

No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana

If we get Texas Tech vs. Indiana, it will be an absolute bloodbath. These two defenses rank 1-2 in havoc (tackles for loss, passes defended) and defensive success rate. Both defensive fronts live in the backfield and put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. I expect a hard-fought, low-scoring game here. 

It's hard to find an edge in this matchup, so it could come down to which quarterback makes enough plays in the second half. Behren Morton had a great season for the Red Raiders. However, I have to give the edge to Fernando Mendoza. The Heisman Trophy winner has made the plays all season late in close games, and I think he does that again to get by Texas Tech. 

Pick: Indiana

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State

This matchup will probably be billed as the "Real National Championship." Whether that's true or not, we will be in for one heck of a football game. 

This is a game that could go many different ways. However, I love the way Georgia closed the season. The Bulldogs looked like a completely different team than the one that played Tennessee early in the year, especially on defense. The Bulldogs will also come into the playoff with a ton of confidence after smacking rival Alabama in the SEC Championship. 

This game is a coin flip, although I still have concerns about Ohio State's offense against a top defense. For that reason, I'll side with Georgia to advance to the title game. 

Pick: Georgia

CFP National Championship Game prediction

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 1 Indiana

I know Indiana isn't sexy. I know a lot of people are picking them to lose before the title game. However, I think the Hoosiers are the most well-coached team in the country, they have an elite defense and a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. They also won at Oregon and beat top-ranked Ohio State on a neutral field. It's official -- Indiana is now a football school. 

Georgia has a tough road with likely matchups against Ole Miss and Ohio State. However, the way the Bulldogs' defense played down the stretch and Gunner Stockton managing the offense a la Stetson Bennett makes this the most complete Georgia team we have seen in the last three years. 

In a game that goes down to the wire, I'll take Kirby Smart to win his third National Championship 23-20. 

National Champion: Georgia Bulldogs