CFP Traffic Report: Where every Power Four team stands at the midseason point

Getty Images

The midseason point of the 2025 college football season has arrived, and a path to the playoff is still wide open for nearly half of the teams in the Power Four. A handful of programs have separated themselves as legitimate contenders, but a mix of upsets, injuries and tough upcoming schedules could quickly reshuffle the playoff lanes.

This fourth edition of the College Football Playoff Traffic Report offers an updated midseason look at where each Power Four team stands on the road to the playoff, organized into tiers:

🚀 On cruise control
🟢 In the driver's seat
🟡 Bumper-to-bumper
🔴 Sitting on the shoulder
⛔ Out of the race

College football rankings: Indiana joins the top 3 after Oregon win as Texas, USC climb new CBS Sports 136

Chip Patterson

The report breaks down the 30 teams most likely to make the College Football Playoff, highlights those still contending for spots and identifies programs that are running low on leeway -- or may already be out of the running.

Let's take a look at the road to the CFP ahead of Week 8.

🚀 On cruise control

Look elite, have a clear path and have a lot of margin for error

No. 1 Ohio State (6-0): Are the Buckeyes better now than they were a year ago as national champions? There's a case to be made. The only major obstacle left is Michigan -- the thorn that's beaten them four straight times -- but even a loss there won't keep Ohio State out of the playoff.

No. 3 Indiana (6-0): Curt Cignetti may have all but locked up a CFP spot for the Hoosiers with that massive Week 7 win at Oregon. UCLA shouldn't be overlooked, but that road trip to Penn State looks a lot less intimidating now with James Franklin gone and the Nittany Lions in disarray.

No. 2 Miami (5-0): The Hurricanes are rolling behind transfer quarterback Carson Beck, who's looking like a Heisman Trophy contender. Their top-15 defense complements his play, putting Miami on cruise control with a clear path to maintain its undefeated record and reach the CFP. It hasn't left the Sunshine State this season and won't for another two weeks, when it visits SMU on Nov. 1.

No. 6 Alabama (5-1): Each week, Alabama looks further removed from the team that lost its opener at Florida State. The Crimson Tide have won three straight against ranked opponents and look like a national title threat again. Next up: a rivalry clash with Tennessee on the Third Saturday of October -- and another chance to prove they're back in championship form.

🟢 In the driver's seat

Control their path, but still vulnerable -- one or two unexpected hiccups could matter

No. 9 Georgia (5-1): Kirby Smart should feel fortunate that some questionable officiating helped Georgia escape Jordan-Hare with a win. That's twice this season the Bulldogs have sleepwalked through the first half before rallying. Quarterback Gunner Stockton hasn't been the spark this offense needs -- steady, but far from threatening.

No. 7 Texas Tech (6-0): The Red Raiders are steamrolling opponents with an FBS-best +212 point differential. Nobody in the Big 12 looks close to matching what Texas Tech has put together through the first half of the season. The status of quarterback Behren Morton remains uncertain, but backup Will Hammond has at least kept the offense humming.

No. 4 Texas A&M (6-0): The Aggies aced their only road test so far at Notre Dame, and now face three of the next four weeks away from home, with a bye before traveling to Missouri. They also close the season at Texas, but Texas A&M has built up plenty of margin for error and looks well-positioned to navigate the tough stretch.

No. 5 Ole Miss (6-0): Whoof. The Rebels narrowly avoided disaster again, scraping past Washington State. Splitting tough back-to-back road tests at Georgia and Oklahoma will be crucial to keep their CFP hopes out of the committee's hands.

No. 8 Oregon (5-1): Losing the nation's longest home winning streak stings, but one slip in the Big Ten isn't catastrophic. The Ducks shouldn't be judged until the final two weeks against old Pac-12 foes USC and at Washington.

No. 11 Tennessee (5-1): The Volunteers sit among a crowded group of one-loss SEC teams with a chance to make a statement against league front-runner Alabama -- the first of back-to-back road tests before hosting Oklahoma in another important showdown.

No. 10 LSU (5-1): Hard to believe the Tigers rank in the bottom half of the SEC offensively with a banged-up Garrett Nussmeier, who hasn't topped 300 passing yards in a game yet -- something he did eight times in 2024. Their next three opponents are all currently ranked in the midseason AP Top 25, including top-six Alabama and Texas A&M.

No. 12 Georgia Tech (6-0): The Yellow Jackets are still quietly dominating in the ACC -- unbeaten and positioned with a path to the conference title game. Their upcoming matchup against Duke in Week 8 is a key hurdle, featuring two of the most explosive offenses in the ACC, promising a high-scoring showdown that could define the regular-season race.

No. 13 Notre Dame (4-2): The door is opening for the Fighting Irish to return to the CFP. Their only remaining ranked opponent is USC -- a team they've beaten six of the past seven meetings -- and a win would give a boost to their resume.

No. 15 BYU (6-0): Somehow, the Cougars' knack for surviving close games has carried over from last season, keeping them unbeaten heading into a heated Holy War with rival Utah in Week 8. BYU will have to earn its Big 12 title shot down the stretch, with road trips to Cincinnati, Iowa State and conference favorite Texas Tech looming.

No. 20 USC (5-1): The Trojans still have a chance to stake a claim as a CFP contender in the Big Ten, but their path is tricky. USC faces road tests against three current AP Top 25 teams -- Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon -- which could make or break their postseason hopes depending on how results shake out elsewhere.

No. 14 Oklahoma (5-1): The return of quarterback John Mateer from hand surgery didn't spark the Sooners in their loss to Texas. Still, Oklahoma controls its own destiny, though the back half of the season is brutal: a road trip to South Carolina kicks off a stretch of six games, the final five of which are against current AP Top 25 opponents in the SEC.

No. 23 Utah (5-1): Now that Devon Dampier appears healthy, the Utes can put that loss to Texas Tech -- when Dampier was playing at less than full strength -- behind them. He's accounted for 494 total yards and eight touchdowns over the past two games, giving Utah a chance to regain momentum down the stretch for a potential rematch.

No. 18 Virginia (5-1): With arguably the easiest remaining schedule in the ACC, the Cavaliers control their path to the conference title game. It's a remarkable turnaround for fourth-year coach Tony Elliott, who won just 11 combined games in his previous three seasons. Remember, the lone blemish -- that loss at NC Sate -- was technically a nonconference game.

🟡 Bumper-to-bumper

Alive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on others

No. 17 Vanderbilt (5-1): With just one loss -- at Alabama -- on their resume through the first half of the season, the Commodores are very much alive. Things get real with four of the next five games in Nashville before wrapping up the regular season with the rivalry showdown at Tennessee.

No. 21 Texas (4-2): The Longhorns won't play another home game in Austin for another two weeks as their SEC road swing continues. Texas remains very much alive in the conference title race after a big Week 7 win over rival Oklahoma. An elite defense has helped ease the pressure on quarterback Arch Manning, who is tasked with limiting mistakes instead of trying to be the hero.

Washington (5-1): The Huskies are in a solid spot, but the rest of the schedule has its hurdles -- not just the rivalry matchup with Oregon in the final week. The next two games, at Michigan and back home against Illinois, are key tests. Win both and Washington's CFP hopes soar.

No. 16 Missouri (5-1): Until Eli Drinkwitz can get his Tigers to consistently compete against the better teams in the SEC, Missouri remains on the outside looking in at the CFP picture. The program is just 4-15 against AP Top 25 conference opponents under Drinkwitz, having lost each of its past four such games. Three more tough matchups remain, giving the Tigers a chance to rewrite the narrative if they can pull off an upset or two.

No. 25 Nebraska (5-1): Speaking of changing the narrative, the Huskers have won three of their past four one-possession games dating back to last season's bowl. That resilience matters, especially as Nebraska likely faces a handful more close games down the stretch.

No. 24 Cincinnati (5-1): With much of the Big 12 spotlight on BYU, Texas Tech and Utah, the Bearcats are quietly off to an unbeaten start against conference opponents. And the current five-game win streak is the longest under Scott Satterfield.

Michigan (4-2): The Big Ten picture is messy behind unbeaten Indiana and Ohio State. The Wolverines are one of four teams with a single conference loss after falling at USC in Week 7. That defeat gives Michigan a crucial head-to-head deficit it might need down the line.

Duke (4-2): The Blue Devils took advantage of an easier start to the ACC schedule, but now face Clemson, Georgia Tech and Virginia in three of the next four games.

Louisville (4-1): The Cardinals have a chance to shake up the league when they travel to Miami in Week 8. A win would certainly hurt the ACC's playoff resume, but it would put Louisville right back in the mix for a spot in the league title game.

SMU (4-2): The Mustangs put their 10-game ACC regular-season win streak on the line at Clemson in Week 8 -- a rematch of last year's conference title game. Win that, and SMU could cause chaos.

Arizona State (4-2): The Sun Devils need quarterback Sam Leavitt to return for the upcoming crucial Week 8 battle against Texas Tech in Tempe. A loss could all but eliminate Arizona State after entering 2025 with high hopes of returning to the CFP.

Illinois (5-2): With losses to Big Ten frontrunners Indiana and Ohio State, the Fighting Illini need more breaks than they can ask for and strong performances down the stretch if they hope to keep their CFP dreams alive.