College Football Week 12 odds, score predictions: Georgia vs. Texas, Alabama vs. Oklahoma give SEC main stage

Week 12 of the college football season brings a number of critical games with conference title and College Football Playoff implications. 

The two biggest games belong to the SEC, where the two newcomers to the conference go on the road to face the SEC's most dominant teams over the last two decades. Oklahoma will head to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama, while Texas travels to Athens to take on Georgia in the marquee matchups of Week 12. Both of those games will play a major role in who makes the College Football Playoff, as both Oklahoma and Texas could find themselves close to elimination from the conversation with losses. 

Elsewhere, the chaotic ACC title race could get even murkier with a few games as the top of that conference continues to cannibalize itself and hurt their chances of being anything but a one-bid league in this year's playoff. The Big Ten's top teams are all big favorites, but the Heisman is very much still up for grabs with Ohio State's Julian Sayin and Indiana's Fernando Mendoza as the co-favorites going into this week. 

We'll take a look at all of that and offer score predictions for seven of Week 12's biggest matchups, starting with a fascinating game in Pittsburgh between Notre Dame and Pitt. 

NOTE: Rankings are from the previous week's CFP Top 25.

CBS Sports 136: Georgia, Texas surge ahead of Week 12 clash in college football rankings, BYU tumbles

Chip Patterson

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 24 Pitt

This is a fascinating game because Notre Dame needs this win, while Pitt simply wants one. The Irish are clinging to an at-large spot in the CFP, but are still looking for style points to secure their position. The Panthers, meanwhile, are starting a stretch of three straight games against ranked foes, but it's games against Georgia Tech and Miami to close the season that carry more stakes for Pitt, as those will determine whether it plays for an ACC title.

As a result, this game could be seen as a bit of a freebie for the Panthers. This isn't a game they're supposed to win and as a nonconference game, they can go for broke knowing a loss doesn't do anything to derail their hopes of winning the ACC. That makes Pitt dangerous in this spot, especially with an offense that is humming right now under freshman QB Mason Heintschel. Since giving Heintschel the starting job, Pitt has scored 30 or more points in every game and he's topped 300 yards passing in four of those five games. 

Notre Dame's defense has gotten better as the year has worn on, but it's hard to know just how much of that improvement is a product of their competition. This will be a legitimate test on the road and we might be in for another shootout involving the Irish. CJ Carr, Jeremiyah Love and the Irish offense shouldn't have much issue moving the ball on Pitt, and this game will likely come down to who can get the timely stop -- or force a key turnover. If there's one issue Heintschel's had, it's been interceptions (five in five games), and in this particular game, he'll need to be blemish-free. 

It would not surprise me one bit if the Panthers push Notre Dame all the way to the finish. That said, I do think the Irish will end up with a narrow victory that further complicates the divide between how the committee views the Irish and how many college football fans do. PICK: Notre Dame 34-31 over Pitt

No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama

The first of two huge ranked matchups in the SEC will see Oklahoma travel to Tuscaloosa to face an Alabama team that has an SEC title game trip firmly in their grasp. The Sooners, meanwhile, still have hopes of a College Football Playoff at-large bid, but will likely need to win out to get there. To do that, they have to win at Alabama, where the Tide haven't played in a one-score game yet. 

The Sooners have had a bye week to prepare for Alabama and try to clean some things up from their win at Tennessee that kept their playoff dreams alive. The Vols provided plenty of help to the Sooners in that one in the form of three turnovers, and Oklahoma can't expect the same from an Alabama team that's among the best in the country at protecting the football, as quarterback Ty Simpson has thrown just one interception all season.

The big question is whether Simpson can continue to dominate through the air if Alabama's rushing attack remains stuck in the mud. The Tide is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry this season and have failed to break 100 yards on the ground in their last two games. That hasn't cost them a win yet, but it is the one real concern for this Alabama offense, especially against an Oklahoma defense that can really turn it up against a one-dimensional offense.

Even with the concerns with the running game, I just trust this Alabama team at home to get the job done. I think the defense can force John Mateer into some questionable decisions, and as long as Simpson continues protecting the football, over 60 minutes I trust the Tide to pull away here. PICK: Alabama 27-17 over Oklahoma

No. 20 Iowa at No. 19 USC

USC has been a buzzsaw at home offensively this season, but they will face their stiffest defensive test of the season on Saturday when they welcome Iowa into the Coliseum. 

The Hawkeyes came up just short of an upset win over Oregon last week, dragging the Ducks into the mud in wet conditions in Iowa City on Saturday. The weather will be considerably different in LA, but the Hawkeyes' game plan won't change all that much. Despite Mark Gornowski's late heroics through the air against Oregon, Iowa will lean on the ground game to slow the tempo down and try to force the Trojans into a slugfest. 

For the most part, USC's offense has been immune to those kinds of games, but Nebraska provided a bit of a blueprint for how it can be done -- albeit, that game was in Lincoln. The good news for USC is they won that game in the end, but Iowa's defense is among the nation's best at limiting explosive plays and the Trojans will have to sustain drives to put up points in this one. 

I think Jayden Maiava and company will find just enough success to eke out a win at home. This game being in LA is extremely helpful, and Iowa will have to feel a bit deflated after last week's close call. I expect them to make the Trojans work for everything on Saturday, but I think USC escapes with a win and their playoff dreams still alive. PICK: USC 24-20 over Iowa

NC State at No. 18 Miami

It took the Hurricanes some time to get warmed up against Syracuse on Saturday, but they eventually put the pedal down and cruised to a victory. Now they welcome in an NC State team that loves to play spoiler in the ACC and has had a bye to revel in taking down Georgia Tech and refocus for a new challenge against the 'Canes. 

This Miami team has been infuriating to watch on offense this season, as there is clearly a ton of talent -- headlined by freshman receiver Malachi Toney -- but they just don't consistently play up to their potential. For one week, I think that will change thanks to an NC State defense that is incredibly leaky. 

The Wolfpack are 111th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 30.6 points per game, which is the eighth-worst mark among power conference teams. Even when they win, it comes by way of a shootout, but I just don't think they have the horses in this one to keep up for four quarters. CJ Bailey is fun and showed his full arsenal of skills against Georgia Tech, but this Miami pass rush can force him into mistakes. 

If the 'Canes can force a couple turnovers, I think this could get ugly for the Wolfpack. Styles make fights, and I just don't think this Miami team is the right one for NC State to pull off an upset against. PICK: Miami 41-24 over NC State

No. 14 Virginia at Duke

Two teams coming off dreadful losses will meet in Durham in a title game eliminator, which feels fitting for this season in the ACC. 

Duke lost to UConn last week, but can still make it to Charlotte because three of its four losses have been nonconference games. Virginia, meanwhile, dropped its first actual ACC game of the season when its luck ran out against Wake Forest -- a reminder that their loss to NC State was technically a nonconference game even though they're both ACC schools. 

Duke is nearly a touchdown favorite in this game in large part due to Virginia losing quarterback Chandler Morris to injury early in that game against Wake Forest. The Cavaliers offense had slowed down in recent weeks with Morris under center, and without him they could only muster nine points in Winston-Salem with Daniel Kaelin stepping in at QB. 

I do expect them to look better against Duke, because almost every offense looks good against this Duke defense. Duke's offense, on the other hand, is phenomenal at creating explosive plays (sometimes for the other team), and I expect the Blue Devils to will this game into a shootout. Darian Mensah should be able to find seams in this Virginia defense for big plays through the air, but you can also pencil Duke in for a couple turnovers every game that keep their opponent close.

Nothing this season has been easy for either of these teams, and I think that continues on Saturday in a narrow Duke victory. PICK: Duke 31-27 over Virginia

UCLA at No. 1 Ohio State

Ho-hum, another game and another four-touchdown spread for the Buckeyes in conference play. UCLA has come back to earth recently after its four-game win streak, and this is just not a great spot for the Bruins. 

Ohio State games have followed a very similar script all season, as Ohio State gets off to a (relatively) slow start and eventually puts the game away on the backs of a strong passing game and the nation's stingiest defense. I don't see any reason to expect anything different on Saturday, but what's most interesting with the Buckeyes is what's going on in the Heisman race and whether they are too dominant for Julian Sayin to win college football's highest individual honor. 

Sayin has been ruthlessly efficient this season, but lacks a true "Heisman moment" on his résumé because Ohio State hasn't found itself in any close games since the opener against Texas. While there's no reason for Ohio State to stray from the formula that's got them here, I do wonder if there's any temptation to really open it up and see if they can get Sayin a huge stats game. 

With the Michigan game still to come as his chance to put an exclamation point on the season, I think they'll hold off for now and stick to the script, which calls for Ohio State to score in the high 30s and their opponent to score 17 or fewer, as we've seen for four straight weeks. PICK: Ohio State 38-10 over UCLA

No. 11 Texas at No. 5 Georgia 

The game of the day is in Athens, where Georgia faces its final SEC game of the season and can apply some pressure to Alabama and Texas A&M to win out. The Dawgs put together their most complete performance of the season last week in Starkville with a dominant win over Mississippi State that showed they might be hitting their stride at the right time. 

In comes a Texas team doing the same, and if both teams bring their best, we could be in for a real fun primetime showdown. The Texas offense is the biggest question mark in this game, but they've started to figure things out of late and seem to be putting Arch Manning in plays that he's more comfortable with in the passing game. They've scored 79 points in the last two weeks and while there's plenty of YAC happening, Arch has gone over 300 in back-to-back games for the first time this season. 

Georgia's defense has been susceptible to the pass this season, and I see two keys to this game for the Dawgs on that side of the ball. The first is whether they can keep Ryan Wingo and Texas' speedy receivers in front of them -- and get them to the ground when they catch screens and short passes. The second is whether their pass rush can get home and heat up Manning, who has shown a propensity for taking sacks and throwing some ill-advised passes when he's been under pressure. 

On the other side, Georgia's offense has been a rollercoaster, but when they're clicking they'll pile up points in bunches. They also live in the short pass and screen game with QB Gunner Stockton, and Texas' job on defense will be similar to Georgia's, as they've got to be sharp tackling on the perimeter. The difference between these two teams is Georgia's ability to run the ball, which takes a lot of the pressure off Stockton's arm. 

My concern here for Texas is they've really struggled on the road this season, and Athens is not a friendly place to play. I think Georgia's found a little something defensively of late and I'm just not ready to trust Texas on the road in this spot. PICK: Georgia 31-20 over Texas