College football betting guide: Expert breaks down top Week 10 games, including Vanderbilt at Texas

Saturday's college football slate starts off with a bang, as Vanderbilt visits Texas seeking to further pad its College Football Playoff resume. That's just one of the standout Week 10 games on tap. 

SportsLine college football expert Bruce Marshall, the longtime executive editor of The Gold Sheet, has gathered information on Saturday's top games and shares everything bettors need to know about Week 10 of the college football season. For those who are interested in college football betting, be sure to check out Marshall's plays.

Vanderbilt at Texas

Nothing says "college football in 2025" any better than Vanderbilt being listed as only a 2.5-point underdog at Texas. From our calculations via power ratings records dating back more than 70 years, the last time we believe the Commodores would have been this short-priced of an underdog after midseason for a game at Austin would have been in 1956, a year the Longhorns finished 1-9.

One of the most important factors for Saturday is the status of Texas QB Arch Manning, who as of Thursday was still in concussion protocol after suffering a late hit in overtime last week at Mississippi State. It was the closest to a breakout game this season for Manning, who completed 29 of 46 passes for 346 yards. Backup Matthew Caldwell, who has bounced around the South at a variety of locales (Jacksonville State, Gardner-Webb, Troy) since 2021 and tossed 13 TDs last fall for the Trojans, came off of the bench and lofted a 10-yard TD pass to Emmett Mosley V on his first snap for what proved to be the winning points in a 45-38 thriller. 

We don't necessarily think that wild fourth quarter, in which Texas scored 24 points, signals all is well with the Longhorns' offense, especially with Manning's status up in the air. Prior to last week, the only teams Texas scored more than 27 points against this season were San Jose State and Sam Houston (a combined 2-14 this season). Critics have wondered about the offensive design and play-calling, falling upon OC Kyle Flood and head coach Steve Sarkisian (the chief play-caller). The sequencing hasn't looked comfortable all season, with Manning only occasionally getting play calls to use his mobility and get him on the move, which would seem a good idea considering his pocket presence remains a work in progress.  For most of the season, the Texas offense has been a hard watch, with the Longhorns mostly relying upon Pete Kwiatkowski's defense that ranks 10th nationally in scoring at 14.6 PPG. 

Based upon what we've seen for the entirety of this season, we don't see a reason, even the home edge, why Texas needs to be favored in this game. We're not sure any Longhorns effort, save perhaps against Oklahoma when John Mateer was playing hurt, would be good enough to get over the hump against a Commodores team that continues to punch above its weight. There was nothing flashy or fluky about last week's rousing win over Missouri, which was big-boy football and the type of game past Vandy teams rarely won. Though QB Diego Pavia continues (deservedly so) to get most of the accolades, and has a legit chance to make it back to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in December, other playmakers continue to emerge. Among them is RB Makhilyn Young, one of the many New Mexico State transfers now in Music City, who has had 43- and 80-yard runs the last two weeks vs. LSU and Mizzou, respectively. 

Even when Pavia's noted ability to extend plays and keep possessions alive was somewhat thwarted last week by Mizzou, the Commodores found other ways to win, including a scrappy defense that simply has more playmakers than any Vandy team we can recall. Bottom line?  Every Vandy performance we've seen this season looks like it would have been good enough to beat Texas -- with or without Manning.

Texas Tech at Kansas State

The role of the "Football General Manager" is a relatively new one in the college ranks, but examples of its importance are now exploding across the country. One of the more impactful GMs is Texas Tech's James Blanchard, whose influence was never more apparent than last week. Even though the Red Raiders could have outclassed Oklahoma State had 40-something Kliff Kingsbury returned to his alma mater play QB, Texas Tech was down to its third QB when Will Hammond went down with a knee injury. Valuing QB depth, which really comes in handy when the first and second stringers go down, Tech head coach Joey McGuire turned to veteran Mitch Griffis, who had considerable starting experience at Wake Forest but was available at the mid-to-lower end of the portal. Credit Blanchard for knowing Griffis could provide a valuable safety net, calmly throwing a couple TD passes in a seamless transition as the Red Raiders rolled 42-0.

Texas Tech has been rolling a lot this season -- much credit again to Blanchard, who worked the portal expertly and directed the vast NIL funding in Lubbock most specifically toward reinforcing the offensive line. Blanchard delivered again and the Red Raiders haven't just been winning, they've been blowing out almost every foe along the way. The last few games have been without starting QB Behren Morton, who was KO'd in the Utah game on Sept. 20 and again on Oct. 11 vs. Kansas, the latter with a knee injury that has kept him out since. Morton is expected to return to active duty at K-State. There are some critics of the Red Raiders, however, noting the schedule has been mostly favorable, though they have to acknowledge that 34-10 win in Salt Lake City over the Utes six weeks ago when Morton was sidelined. Yet in the next road test, against what has been an up-and-down Arizona State two weeks ago in Tempe, the Red Raiders suffered their only loss (straight-up and ATS) of the season courtesy of the Sun Devils. Again, that was without Morton.

The task before Texas Tech this week is much like it was at Tempe two weeks ago -- a feisty home underdog with a chance to change the course of its season. It's been up and down for Kansas State, which, like other teams in recent years, had the campaign sidetracked by a Week 0 loss in Dublin and a fast-forwarded schedule that had the Wildcats already playing four games by Sept. 12 -- three of those being losses. The subsequent bye week allowed head coach Chris Klieman and OC Matt Wells to readjust the offense, which has mostly meant getting QB Avery Johnson back on the move. Mobility remains Johnson's game, and most efforts since the bye have seen Johnson running more as the offense scales back the full-on aerial assault that wasn't working the first month of the season. The Wildcats are 3-1 SU since, with the outright loss at Baylor coming after KSU blew a 14-point lead. Since the bye week, the Wildcats have covered in all four of their games, scoring 38 PPG. 

The Wildcats are now playing like one of the conference favorites many expected them to be this season. If series history means anything, the Red Raiders are in real trouble, as KSU has won eight straight (no meeting last season, however). This spread looks off -- these are the Wildcats everyone was expecting to see this season, and the loss at ASU suggests the Red Raiders could be vulnerable on the road. As these respective offenses continue to score points, clearing the 52.5 total looks very possible -- as does a K-State upset win. 

Army at Air Force

This doesn't look like a vintage season for either side in the latest Commander-in-Chief's rivalry. Navy looks like the service academy that is having the big year and likely keeps the C-in-C Trophy for the second consecutive season. By virtue of their 34-31 loss in Annapolis a few weeks ago, we know the Falcons can't win it this season, but there was something interesting about that score, which once again remains the main focus (especially the total) in another battle of the military schools.

Simply, Commander-in-Chief games have overwhelmingly featured Under for nearly an entire generation.

Though three of the last four service academy clashes have landed on the Over side, Unders are still a sparkling 46-14-1 in these rivalry games for the past 20+ years. It makes sense, as the service academies have all been running versions of the option for decades now. That equates to fewer passes, fewer incomplete passes and fewer clock stoppages. Most Commander in Chief games in recent years have usually featured about 20% fewer snaps than a normal college game. The Air Force-Navy game four weeks ago featured a bit higher-than-normal 120 snaps, still well behind most college games but a bit higher than the usual Commander-in-Chief's games in recent years.

It's been Army-Air Force, however, that has defined the trend. Eleven straight between the Black Knights and Falcons have landed on the Under. Moreover, across the last eight meetings, no side has scored more than 21 points in these clashes. Current Falcons QB Liam Szarka continues to display a big-play bent. Szarka has already thrown for more than 1,000 yards and eight TD passes, not too shabby for an Air Force QB at this point in the season. He's also seemingly en route to a 1,000-yard rushing season (he's at 725 yards entering the weekend), piloting a bit jazzier version of the option that longtime head coach Troy Calhoun and OC Mike Thiessen have been scheming the past several years.

Yet we've seen the Black Knights' more "pure" version of the option annually slow down these games, often to a crawl, and this is as traditional of an option as we've seem throughout the years at West Point. Though Jeff Monken doesn't have a do-everything QB like Bryson Daily, who finished sixth in the Heisman voting last season, he does have two capable option pilots (Cade Kellums and Dewayne Coleman) mostly sharing snaps this season. 

As the second-ranked (Air Force at 284 yards per game) and fourth-ranked (Army at 276) rushing offenses in the country, the table is set for another slow-paced battle between these two with the clock continuing to move. The Force, which hasn't won this matchup since 2019, might be finally due to reverse the recent trend. But as usual when this two get together, the Under will be our first call.

Wyoming at San Diego State

We thought it a good idea to feature a team that might be flying under the radar a bit nationally, but one we believe has a legit chance to enter the College Football Playoff as the Group of Five rep. That San Diego State would even be in this position rates as one of the strangest storylines of an already-strange season.  

How the the Aztecs get here? It didn't seem likely early in September, when we and most Mountain West observers understandably lost the scent on SDSU after it was hammered in Pullman by Washington State on Sept. 6. It seemed like more of the same after the defense had a bad night and Michigan transfer QB Jayden Denegal looked like the latest pilot who couldn't get the offense off the tarmac. The defense, however, was a veteran unit returning (by today's standards, at least) an unheard of 10 starters from a year ago when the platoon was admittedly rather undistinguished. Soon, however, it became apparent this was a strong defense. DC Rob Aurich has the Aztecs ranked ninth in total defense (255 yards per game allowed) and have conceded barely 10 PPG, ranking second nationally (behind only Ohio State), with a trio of shutouts to its credit (including last week at Fresno State). 

Against this defensive backdrop, Wyoming's offense looks like it could get stranded as the Cowboys, while tough-minded, aren't necessarily flashy. That all reflects the characteristics of recent Craig Bohl teams at Laramie, though it's protégé Jay Sawvel now in the head coaching chair after coordinating Bohl's defenses for several years. The Cowboys have won and covered three straight, including last week's 28-0 whitewashing of Colorado State. The offense stresses balance. Wyoming teams have usually been able to run effectively, with freshman Samuel Harris (430 rushing yards) the new RB to watch. We wonder, however, if QB Kaden Anderson (11 TD passes vs. six picks) can stretch the field vertically, with just one pass play covering as many as 50 yards this season as we enter November. 

The Wyoming defense, ranked 47th nationally at 343 yards per game, is probably not going to let the Cowboys get overrun -- but can the offense do enough? The Aztecs have won and covered all three of their Mountain West games quite handily with a win margin of 26 PPG. If Wyoming fall behind, we have real questions about the Cowboys' ability to make up ground.  We've seen enough of the SDSU defense to think it might be for real, and we suspect it's going to take a foe besides Wyoming to really test this Aztecs defense as it positions itself for a spot in the Mountain West title game.