B1G Time: Welcome back Oregon! USC feasting on inferior foes while Iowa's passing game has found a new bottom

It was a miserable weekend for Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy -- and for anybody banking on Oregon taking a step back in 2025. The Big Ten's "Big Three" felt obvious in the offseason, but the Ducks were the one with the most questions.

How would they look without a veteran quarterback like Bo Nix or Dillon Gabriel? Could the offensive line hold up after losing both tackles to the NFL Draft? What about a defensive front that sent three players in the first three rounds? And who steps up after Evan Stewart's injury?

We don't have definitive answers yet, but early returns point to business as usual in Eugene. Yes, you can nitpick the level of competition, but no one in the Big Ten has looked more impressive through two games than the No. 4 Ducks. This is only the third time in program history they've scored 50+ points in each of their first two games (2013, 2018). And the 69-3 demolition of Oklahoma State was Oregon's largest margin of victory against a power-conference opponent in program history.

It also marked the biggest margin of victory in a nonconference matchup between Power Four opponents since Ohio State clobbered Pitt 72-0 in 1996.

It was a dismantling from the very start. The Ducks scored on a 59-yard touchdown 40 seconds into the game, and then scored on a 65-yard pass on their next offensive snap. They later added a 42-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter, and now have seven plays of 40+ yards through two games (USC has 8 to lead the conference).

Again, we're only two games into the season here, but so far, the Oregon offense has been more explosive than it was last season when it went undefeated in the Big Ten. While the Ducks routinely hit big plays through the air last season, their run game wasn't nearly as explosive. They finished 2024 ranked ninth in the Big Ten and 66th nationally in explosive rush rate at 9.8%. Through two games in 2025, the Ducks are at 17.1% on the ground, which is 7th nationally and second in the Big Ten (again, behind USC).

Now, again, we're two games into the season. All of those numbers will come back to Earth as Oregon gets into the meat of Big Ten play (though I don't know that they'll come back against Northwestern this weekend), but this has been a very encouraging start to the 2025 season for Oregon. It's also a testament to the fact that Dan Lanning hasn't only brought in incredible talent, but that he has outstanding coaches around him.

Dante Moore has looked great, and offensive coordinator Will Stein has played a key role in making sure of it. Everything in this offense looks easy right now, and believe me, it's not easy to make things look as easy as Oregon is to this point. Mike Gundy made comments about the amount of money Oregon puts into its football program, but I don't know that they'll be able to spend enough to keep Stein in Eugene too much longer. He's destined to get a head coaching job soon, and deserves one.

Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Oregon climbs, Texas slides despite lopsided win

Tom Fornelli

USC has been great, too

You may have noticed that the only Big Ten team outpacing Oregon in explosive play rate so far is USC, which has outscored Missouri State and Georgia Southern 132-33 to start 2-0. You may also be wondering why I'm more bullish on the Ducks than the Trojans when the résumés are pretty similar.

It comes down to trust. Oregon earned the benefit of the doubt by winning the Big Ten last year and knocking off both Ohio State and Michigan along the way. On top of that, the Ducks have scored just seven points in the fourth quarter this season while allowing seven. That suggests Dan Lanning has eased off late in games.

USC, meanwhile, has gone the other way -- outscoring its first two opponents 31-0 in the fourth quarter, even while leading 56-13 against Missouri State and 45-20 against Georgia Southern after three quarters. I don't fault them for it. In fact, I'd argue it's the smart play for Lincoln Riley as he tries to reshape the Trojans' image and build confidence before the schedule stiffens.

And yes, Jayden Maiava, Waymond Jordan, Makai Lemon, Ja'Kobi Lane and the rest of that offense have been electric. But I'll need to see them doing it against better competition before I fully buy in.

This week's trip to Purdue won't silence doubters either, but it's worth noting USC went 1-4 in Big Ten road games last season, including losses to Minnesota and a bad Maryland team. If the Trojans roll the Boilermakers, it won't be a résumé-changer -- but it will be another sign they're moving in the right direction.

Concerns over Iowa's philosophy

Iowa's offense is off to a dreadful start -- particularly in the passing game. That's nothing new, but the hope was Mark Gronowski would at least raise the floor for a unit that's struggled to throw the ball for what feels like forever.

So far? It's worse.

Gronowski is completing just 53.8% of his passes for 3.3 yards per attempt. That ranks 129th of 130 qualified quarterbacks, and his 2.54 yards per dropback ranks dead last. It ain't great, and there's plenty of blame to go around. He's been pressured on a third of his dropbacks (100th nationally), his receivers aren't creating separation and the playcalling isn't doing him any favors.

Tim Lester might only be in his second year as offensive coordinator, but this is still Kirk Ferentz's program. Iowa is running the ball on 66.7% of its snaps -- the sixth-highest rate in the nation behind the service academies, Rice, and Gus Malzahn's Florida State. On first downs, that jumps to 75.9%, and across first and second combined it's 72.4%.

It's not entirely ineffective. Iowa has a 44% success rate on those runs, good enough to keep the average third down to only 4.8 yards -- the fourth-lowest mark in the country.

The problem is it's all so predictable. Opposing defenses know exactly what's coming. I'd love to see Iowa mix in more early-down passing just to loosen things up. At this point, it can't get much worse.

A concerning trend

No. 23 Michigan lost to Oklahoma on the road. That shouldn't surprise you. The Wolverines were led by Bryce Underwood, a true freshman, making his first career road start against one of the best defenses in the country. All in all, the box score wasn't pretty, but I didn't see anything from Underwood that causes me concern.

What I am concerned about is how Michigan's offense has performed under Sherrone Moore overall.

Michigan finished the game with 288 yards of offense. It's the 10th time in Sherrone Moore's 15 games as head coach that the Wolverines' offense has failed to gain at least 300 yards. It only happened four times in Jim Harbaugh's final 43 games as coach.

Unfamiliar territory

No. 9 Illinois went on the road and beat Duke 45-19 on Saturday. It was the Illini's first nonconference road win since 2019, and it extended their road win streak to three games for the first time since 2001. It was also their largest victory over an ACC opponent since a 42-point win against Virginia in 1999.

The payoff was immediate: Illinois cracked the top 10 in both major polls. It's the program's first top-10 appearance in the AP Top 25 since 2001 — back when a young Tom Fornelli was in Champaign and thought this was just what being an Illinois football fan was like all the time.

Alas, I was wrong.

Still, this was an important win for a program trying to build on last year's 10-win season. History hasn't made it easy — the last time Illinois started and finished a season ranked in the AP poll was 1990.

B1G Question of the Week

I want to put it on the record that I do not think Beau Pribula is a better quarterback than Drew Allar! Not yet, anyway!

Seriously, Pribula is off to an incredible start with No. 25 Missouri, having thrown for 617 yards and 5 touchdowns in two games, including a win over Kansas. However, right now, this question is based more on Drew Allar not lighting the world on fire to start the 2025 season.

Not that he's playing poorly. He's completing nearly 70% of his passes with three touchdowns and no turnovers. It's just that Penn State looks to be playing at half speed right now against an inferior nonconference slate. The No. 2 Nittany Lions don't need to prove anything to anybody. They just needs to win games to find themselves in the College Football Playoff.

So, no, I do not think Penn State kept the wrong quarterback. That said, I also maintain the right to change my mind once conference play begins if Pribula continues balling out and Allar doesn't.

Going with my gut

Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers -- just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Any game not included is due to there not being a posted line at time of publishing.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Wisconsin at No. 19 Alabama: The Big Ten gets another shot at taking an SEC pelt this week, and I don't like its odds! Alabama may have lost by 14 points to Florida State on the road, but unless they've been sandbagging to an alarming degree, I'm rather confident this year's Wisconsin is not as good as this year's Florida State. Not to mention, we don't know the full status of Wisconsin quaterback Billy Edwards. There's no question the Badgers would be better off with Edwards in this game, but even if he returns, I doubt it'll be enough. Alabama -20.5

New Mexico at UCLA (Friday) -- New Mexico +15.5
No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern -- Oregon -27.5
Central Michigan at No. 23 Michigan -- Michigan -27.5
USC at Purdue -- Purdue +21.5
Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State -- Ohio State -32.5
Western Michigan at No. 9 Illinois -- Illinois -27.5
UMass at Iowa -- Iowa -35.5
Minnesota at Cal -- Cal +2.5

Last Week: 7-5
Season: 16-14