Expert picks for Final Four: Who will win the 2026 NCAA Tournament and more bold predictions for this season
CBS Sports experts provide their picks for the Final Four field and the national champion for 2025-26
There have been 210 long days since college basketball's 2024-25 season ended in April.
That drought ends today.
That's right, baby: College basketball season is officially -- finally -- back in our lives. So, ahead of the season beginning and before we jump headfirst into the goodness that is this wonderful sport, I put out the bat signal to our team of experts and asked them: Who ya got winning it all?
Every one of our experts had different answers to that question, which just shows how wide-open the season feels -- despite so many good teams hovering at or near the top. While I had them, I also asked for their picks for national runner-up and predictions for the other Final Four teams.
Results from our experts are below.
Expert picks
Predicted 2026 NCAA Tournament champions
St. John's
I moved St. John's to No. 1 in my Top 25 And 1 early in the offseason based on the return of Zuby Ejiofor and strength of what I believe was the best transfer portal class in the sport.
I love the talent. I love the coach.
So, yes, I'm picking St. John's to win what would be its first NCAA Tournament in school history -- but, like I wrote in Monday morning's Top 25 And 1, I obviously have some concerns about how things have unfolded since I placed a No. 1 next to the Red Storm, specifically concerns at the point guard position. Back in April, coach Rick Pitino said North Carolina transfer Ian Jackson would be St. John's "next great point." But after some practices and scrimmages, Pitino actually identified Stanford transfer Oziyah Sellers as the Red Storm's starting point guard with Idaho State transfer Dylan Darling serving as his backup, meaning the player Pitino once called St. John's "next great point" is no longer even expected to play point at St. John's. If nothing else, it's unusual. But, all of that acknowledged, the talent at St. John's remains top shelf, and I'm simply going to trust one of the greatest college basketball coaches of all time to figure it out between now and April. -- Gary Parrish
Houston
Why Houston? Well, first off, I'm actually shocked I'm the only one of the six taking the Cougars -- my preseason No. 1 team and the preseaosn No. 1 in every mainstream predictive metric -- to cut down the nets in Indy.
Here's why I'm going with Kelvin Sampson and company:
This is THE most consistent program in college basketball. Four straight years finishing No. 2 at KenPom and five straight finishing in the top five. If you go back two more years, so seven straight seasons, it's top-15. No other coach or program in the country can match that. Not one. Sampson has a winning mandate baked into the DNA of this program. That's not THE biggest reason I have Houston at 1, but it obviously plays a major factor. The amount of times I've seen his teams just sap the will out of an opponent in the final 10 minutes of a game is not countable. They don't win every game, but they win almost every one, and they're built for 40 minutes every. single. time.
Reason No. 2: Three core pieces are back, and it's not just that it's three, it's that it's two in the backcourt and then maybe the best defender in college basketball. Milos Uzan turns 23 in two months. He's an adult. He'll be a premier lead guard in the sport. Emanuel Sharp is also a senior, with 68 games started and a high-end defender, and plenty motivated to atone for his end-of-game blunder against Florida. JoJo Tugler's ridiculous as a defender, maybe as versatile as anyone Sampson has had, which says a ton. He's also our preseason National Defensive Player of the Year.
Reason No. 3: This is by far Houston's best freshman class. Big man Chris Cenac is top-10 prospect; 2-guard Isaiah Harwell and point guard Kingston Flemings are ranked in the top 20 at 247 Sports. The combination of projected NBA talent and how many pieces return from a 35-5 team is why Houston is the easiest choice ahead of a loaded season. -- Matt Norlander
UConn
Last year's UConn team was seriously flawed, and ultimately it was incapable of measuring up to the lofty expectations that came with back-to-back national titles in 2023 and 2024.
But this year's UConn is not last year's UConn.
And in fact, I'd argue this year's UConn team might be a smidge more dangerous because of the failures and shortcomings of last year's UConn team. Coach Dan Hurley is oozing with confidence about this roster he personally helped hand select and tweak. Vets like Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed are out to prove the Huskies are still top dogs. And this coaching staff has pulled in some serious talent over the offseason -- among the newcomers being five-star guard Braylon Mullins and transfers Malachi Smith and Silas Demary Jr.
This will be a classic Hurley-coached UConn team that has depth and size and can score it both inside and out. Hurley has also vowed this team will defend (at the very least he expects it will do so better than last year). This program is a monster right now. And on top of the elite talents, those inside the walls -- frighteningly -- seem more driven than ever to make a push toward another title. I'm buying stock in the "best coach in the f---ing sport" and in the carefully-crafted roster he has put together. Championship No. 7 for the Huskies is very much in play. -- Kyle Boone
Duke
This Duke team isn't going to produce three top-10 NBA Draft picks like last year's squad, and it almost assuredly won't match the 2024-25 team's historic KenPom net rating. But in a season featuring a wide-open title race, these Blue Devils have every ingredient needed to be the last team standing. At the top of the list is one-and-done forward in Cam Boozer, who verified during the exhibition slate that he'll be a top flight college basketball star. The roster is once again defined by size and length across the board. While there isn't much returning production, there is loads of returning potential as the "rest" of Duke's star-studded 2024 recruiting class will get the chance to shine. Chief among them is 6-foot-6 sharpshooter Isaiah Evans, who is in for a major breakout season. Oh, and don't forget the coach. Jon Scheyer, now in his fourth season, is finding his stride on the sideline and proving to be a worthy successor to the legendary Mike Krzyzewski. He'll take the lessons learned from last season's Final Four exit and use them to craft a championship caliber team. -- David Cobb
Florida
UConn proved last year that even in the modern landscape of college basketball, it's possible to repeat as champions. I love Florida's roster, especially what Todd Golden's squad is returning. The Gators have the best frontcourt depth in the nation with Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu, Micah Handlogten and Alex Condon. In particular, I'm expecting Haugh to have a breakout season and become a potential lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. I've already gone on the record and said Haugh is Florida's best player. The Gators wouldn't have won the title without him. Outside of Walter Clayton Jr., he was Florida's best player after the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
The wild card of this team is Boogie Fland. Before going down with an injury in SEC play, he looked like a potential lottery pick. Instead, Fland entered the transfer portal and landed at Florida, where he will be the unofficial Clayton replacement. I'm also very intrigued by how Xaivian Lee looks in Florida's system. He was a star at the mid-major level and now has a chance to prove himself on a loaded roster. The parity in college basketball is real. I'm optimistic about the Gators' chances of repeating. -- Cameron Salerno
Kentucky
The 'Cats have a feasible path to a top-10 offense and defense, which is why they're my title pick for 2025-26.
Offensively, you're trusting Mark Pope to design a system that maximizes a roster chalked full of athleticism and dynamic individual creators. This transition offense should hum with Mo Dioubate, Otega Oweh, Jaland Lowe, Denzel Aberdeen or a host of others being able to grab and go to generate early offense.
This backcourt, specifically, should have serious juice. Lowe is a nightmare to stay in front of with his creativity and speed. Oweh is a freight train. Aberdeen is a slippery, powerful driver. All three of those dudes can generate a paint touch, which unlocks everything else in Kentucky's playbook. I trust Pope to find the right combinations to complement those veteran guards, especially when he can mix in Jasper Johnson (instant offense), Kam Williams (3-and-D), Trent Noah (shooter) or Collin Chandler (shooter, part two).
Oh, and freshman big man Malachi Moreno looks like an absolute hit already with his combination of size, feel, playmaking and IQ. The 7-footer looks like the steady connector this group so desperately needed.
Defensively, the bones of a vicious unit are alive and well, too. Aberdeen and Oweh are two diligent point-of-attack defenders. Dioubate is a physical, multi-positional forward who can guard anyone. Even though he's a freshman, Moreno has already shown excellent defensive instincts, and when Jayden Quaintance gets back, buckle up. Kentucky transforms into a unit with tons of skilled size, length and oodles of defensive switchability. Trusting a team with 10 newcomers is scary, but Pope has so many answers to the test in the chase for a title. -- Isaac Trotter
Bold predictions
Darryn Peterson breaks the Big 12 freshman scoring record
Texas' Kevin Durant averaged 25.8 points in the Big 12 as a freshman in the 2006-07 season. The following year, Kansas State's Michael Beasley averaged 26.2. My prediction: Kansas freshman Darryn Peterson will average more than both this season in a way that has the Jayhawks more nationally relevant than they've been over the past two seasons. He'll get them to at least the Sweet 16 for the first time since they won the national championship in 2022. -- Parrish
The A-10 has its first three-bid season since 2017-18
I want to believe. I have to believe. I need to believe. The conference has been in a slump for far too long, and it was hit harder than any other league in 2020 -- when we had no NCAA Tournament -- due to 1-seed Dayton not having a chance at a Final Four/national title run. The A-10 hasn't really recovered since, but this season it's got a genuine shot to be the No. 6 or 7 league in the sport and to produce five top-80 teams. I like Dayton to win the league, while VCU is the preseason pick from the league's coaches. Saint Louis, Loyola Chicago and George Washington all have the talent to be good enough to play onto the bubble. Even George Mason and St. Bonaventure should be considered threats to chase 20 wins. It's imperative for the A-10, as a league, to pick off notable wins and avoid terrible losses in the first six weeks of the season.
Somehow, some way, I think the conference gets there. Three-bid A-10 in 2026: let's speak it into existence. My official picks are Dayton, Saint Louis and George Washington. -- Norlander
Cameron Boozer, not Darryn Peterson, is college basketball's best rookie
The hype train left the station weeks ago on Kansas freshman Darryn Peterson -- scoring 26 points in a preseason exhibition vs. No. 11 Louisville only poured fuel on the fire -- but I'm going to zag here and predict that while Peterson has a great freshman season, he won't wind up as the best freshman in college basketball.
That distinction will belong to Duke big man Cameron Boozer.
Boozer's a unique talent whose skill set includes rebounding, versatile scoring and preternatural competitive drive. He's been a winner at every stop in high school and a leader to boot. I predict he'll be the best player on a top-five Duke team and finish as a top-two player in college basketball. He's that good and his impact will be that undeniable. -- Boone
Darryn Peterson will win National Player of the Year and guide Kansas to the Elite Eight
Imagine telling someone a few years ago that picking Kansas to go to the Elite Eight would be a "bold prediction." Well, with how the last few years have gone for Bill Self's squad, we have reached that territory. Lucky for the Jayhawks, they have a player entering the program who might be the best player in the country. That would be Peterson, who is a top contender to go No. 1 this summer in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Peterson will not only guide Kansas to the Elite Eight but also win National Player of the Year, too. Cooper Flagg laid out the blueprint on how a freshman can win the most prestigious individual award in the sport last year by helping Duke reach the Final Four. There isn't a player in the country who has a better chance to swing their team's respective outcome than Peterson. I'm a huge believer in the talent. I'll give it a few games before he's the consensus No. 1 prospect in the draft. -- Salerno
Eight teams earn the No. 1 rank in the country at some point
There have been five total teams that have landed the illustrious No. 1 ranking in the AP Top 25 in back-to-back seasons. Last year, it was Kansas, Tennessee, Auburn, Duke and the Gators from the University of Florida. In 2023-24, the Fearsome Five included Kansas, Purdue, UConn, Houston and Arizona.
You want a blistering hot take? I think there could be a world where eight (!) different teams earn that No. 1 ranking this year.
Walk with me.
Currently, Purdue holds the belt at No. 1, but let's pretend it lost to Alabama on Nov. 13. Houston could vault to the top slot.
Let's pretend Houston stumbles to Auburn in Birmingham on Nov. 16. It's UConn's turn to ride this rollercoaster.
Let's pretend UConn stumbles to Arizona at home on Nov. 19, just 24 hours after Duke beats Kansas in the Champions Classic to improve to 5-0. Jon Scheyer: Welcome back to the top of the polls.
Let's pretend Duke fumbles the bag against a surging Arkansas team on Nov. 27 because that Thanksgiving hangover was real. Here comes Florida up to No. 1 ahead of its duel with the aforementioned Blue Devils on Dec. 2. The crown is heavy and Duke gets back off the mat to take Florida away from the crew of the unbeatens. The Gators stay No. 1 for a week -- there's no shame in losing at Cameron Indoor -- but after a second-straight loss to UConn, the door is open for a Kentucky squad that is somehow undefeated through 11 games.
That's six if you were counting at home, and we're only in mid-December. You get the vision.
I am not envisioning the scenario that is unfolding in college football where preseason presumed contenders (like LSU, Penn State or Clemson) look atrocious. Quite the contrary. I think there are a ton of great rosters at the top of the sport this season, so some weekly reshuffling could certainly be in order. Purdue has a roster that could feasibly be No. 1. With the right breaks, so does Houston, Florida, Kentucky, St. John's, UConn, Duke, BYU, Michigan, Texas Tech, UCLA and a few others.
It's just loaded. I can't wait to see how it unfolds. -- Trotter
Big Ten will claim conference supremacy
The SEC is coming off a historically successful 2024-25 campaign, but the Big Ten is poised to claim conference supremacy this season. Whether that manifests itself with a long-awaited national championship is anyone's guess, but the conference has a couple of obvious contenders. Purdue and Michigan are each projected No. 1 seeds in our preseason Bracketology and have the talent to win it all.
The league will also be bolstered by a strong group of "noise makers" this season. These are teams that may not be Tier A national championship contenders but are talented enough to raise the league's overall profile. Schools like USC and Washington are perfect examples, as both have assembled great rosters under second-year coaches. A couple of NCAA Tournament teams should also arise from the group of first-year regimes at Indiana, Iowa, Maryland and Minnesota. Then you've got your steady regulars like Illinois, UCLA, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Oregon, all of whom should be solid again.
With 26 of the SEC's top 30 scorers gone, Bruce Pearl in retirement and new coaches at Texas and Texas A&M, the SEC will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's dominance. The Big Ten has everything it needs to claim the top spot in the conference hierarchy. -- Cobb
