World Cup futures odds: United States' quarterfinal chances improve with Balogun now available against Belgium

The United States have reached the Round of 16 in each of their last four appearances in the World Cup. They're hoping they can get to the quarterfinals for the first time in that stretch, especially now that one of their star players will be available.

Team USA seek their first trip to the quarters since 2002 when they take on Belgium on Monday at Lumen Field in Seattle. The Americans thought they would be without top scorer Folarin Balogun for the match as the 25-year-old striker received a one-game suspension after being handed a red card in his side's 2-0 victory against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32.

However, FIFA's disciplinary committee suspended the red card for a probationary period of one year, meaning Balogun is eligible to play against Belgium. His presence figures to be a huge boost for the U.S., as he has scored three of the team's 10 goals over its first four matches in the tournament.

Balogun tallied twice in USA's group stage-opening 4-1 triumph over Paraguay and converted in the 45th minute to begin the scoring against Bosnia and Herzegovina. His three goals are tied for fourth-most all-time by a USMNT player in the World Cup and for second-most in a single World Cup tournament.

The U.S. likely will need a strong performance from Balogun to get past the Belgians, who staged an amazing late rally to edge Senegal 3-2 in the Round of 32. Belgium trailed 2-0, but Romelu Lukaku halved the deficit in the 86th minute before Youri Tielemans leveled the match less than three minutes later and converted a penalty in added time at the end of extra time for the win.

Belgium has won six straight meetings with Team USA since the Americans posted a 3-0 victory in their first clash in the group stage of the 1930 World Cup. Prior to a 5-2 triumph in a friendly this past March, the Belgians defeated the Americans 2-1 in the Round of 16 of the 2014 World Cup, with all three goals coming in extra time.

Even before the news that Balogun would be eligible to play, SportsLine expert Martin Green believed the United States would move on. 

"The Belgians have looked sluggish at times during this tournament, especially when dealing with quick, counterattacking opponents," Green said. "It's worth noting that the USMNT has improved since (the loss in March), whereas Belgium has been inconsistent. Their defense looks flimsy, and they've only kept one clean sheet at this tournament. The USMNT have enough firepower to exploit this leaky Belgian defense."

Despite Team USA's losing streak in the all-time series, FanDuel believes they will find a way to reach the quarterfinals for a matchup against the Portugal-Spain winner. FanDuel lists the Americans at -118 to advance and +155 favorites on the 90-minute regulation money line, while Belgium are -102 to advance and +180 underdogs, respectively.

The USMNT's odds to win the World Cup for the first time improved with the victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina, going from +3500 to +3000. The side's best finish was third place in the inaugural tournament in 1930.

Spain were the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup at FanDuel before the event got underway with odds of +450. They enter their Round of 16 match against Portugal on Monday at +600. France (+165), who will meet Morocco in the quarterfinals after having defeated Paraguay, and defending champion Argentina (+460) are favored ahead of the Spaniards. The Argentinians face Egypt on Tuesday.

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ODDS TO WIN 2026 WORLD CUP