There are 10 games on the MLB schedule for Thursday, July 30, with half the slate taking place in the evening window. While there might not necessarily be any marquee matchups for fans to take in, the trade deadline is just around the corner and that means plenty of potential player movement as contenders try to bolster their rosters for the stretch run. Breakout performances, especially with home runs, can sway a team's decisions. SportsLine expert Adam Thompson has gone through Thursday's games and provided his best home run player props for the slate.
Thompson was one of SportsLine's earliest experts from 2016-19 and rejoined the company in 2026 following a stint as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group. An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in NFL, MLB and NBA. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, he's up over 70 units in MLB and more than 60 units in the NBA at sports betting apps.
Here are Thompson's home run picks for Thursday, July 30.
Best home run picks for Thursday, July 30
- Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics (+350, FanDuel)
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (+204, DraftKings)
Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics (+350)
Sonny Gray is having an excellent season for the Red Sox at 12-4 with a scant 2.78 ERA. But if he has an issue, it's that he does give up the occasional home run or two. He's allowed at least one home run in five of his last seven starts. Everyone gives up home runs at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, the current home of the Athletics, and the wind will be blowing out.
Soderstrom is a far better hitter at Sutter Health Park, posting a big .956 OPS at home compared to .687 on the road, and 11 home runs compared to six. Only Nick Kurtz has hit more home runs at Sutter, but Kurtz is having a miserable July.
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (+204)
Shohei loves L.A. He leads the team in home runs and OPS at Dodger Stadium, with 14 dingers and a .990 OPS clip. Mariners starter Bryan Woo is an amazing 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA â at home. On the road, he's 1-7 with a 6.52 ERA and has given up twice as many home runs. He's given up three in three July starts.
The wind will be blowing straight out on Thursday night, so players who get the ball high in the air will find an edge. Nobody hits them higher than Ohtani.
