UMass vs. Toledo odds, picks, prediction, start time: Wednesday college football betting preview for Nov. 11

The Toledo Rockets host the UMass Minutemen on Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. ET. Toledo enters at 7-2, while UMass is 5-4. According to the latest Toledo vs. UMass odds, Toledo is a 14.5-point favorite, while the over/under for total points scored is 51.5. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25, and receive a $55 bonus here:

UMass vs. Toledo betting odds

UMass vs. Toledo betting preview

Toledo found a different path against Sacramento State. The Toledo Rockets managed a 20-17 victory after John Alan Richter completed nine of 17 passes for 60 yards. CJ Miller rushed for 135 yards, and Autavius Ison added 101. Toledo's defense did the heavier lifting, holding Sacramento State to eight rushing yards and recording 12 tackles for loss. The performance contrasted with an offense that averages a MAC-best 35.4 points and 455.3 yards per game. Mike Jacobs' team is 7-2, with three straight wins and a 4-1 record in conference play.

UMass comes to the Glass Bowl at 5-4 after an overtime escape against Ball State. William "Pop" Watson III threw for a career-high 302 yards in the 31-30 win and scored two rushing touchdowns. T.Y. Harding caught six passes for 70 yards after returning from injury, and Jabari Lewis turned a reception into a 64-yard touchdown. The UMass Minutemen allow 22.1 points per game, third-fewest in the MAC, and rank second in total defense at 327.0 yards allowed. Their pass defense has the conference's best efficiency mark through five league games. Toledo's rushing attack faces a tougher defensive assignment, and Richter will have to provide more than he did against Sacramento State. Claim the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code CBSFAN350 to get $350 in FanCash:

UMass vs. Toledo picks, prediction

The Pick: Over 51.5 Points

The Rockets have scored on 35 of 37 trips inside the 20, a 94.6% rate, and have reached 34 points in six of their seven victories. They scored 45 against Western Michigan in their last home game. The offensive line has allowed nine sacks through nine games, which gives Richter an opportunity to bounce back after his 60-yard passing outing against Sacramento State. The counterpoint is UMass' defense: it ranks second in the MAC in yards allowed, and its cornerbacks have done a strong job limiting passing opportunities.

UMass has scored on 25 of its 28 red-zone trips, too. Watson completes 69.3% of his passes, tops in the MAC, while Harding has contributed touchdowns as a receiver and runner and on a punt return this season. UMass' overtime win against Ball State totaled 61 points. The schools' last meeting also produced 61, with Toledo winning 38-23 in 2024. That history favors a higher total, but Toledo's 20-17 victory at Sacramento State offers a recent counterexample. 

SportsLine's projected result totals 55 points, and its model gives Over 51.5 a 54.2% simulation rate. Bet on Toledo-UMass at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass when you spend $5+: