We're now just a couple weeks away from the UFC Freedom 250 card, the first-of-its-kind mixed martial arts showcase that will be held on the White House premises. The card is set for 8 p.m. Sunday, June 14, and will be broadcast live on Paramount+.
When the official card was released and odds first posted about six weeks ago, we took a look at the opening prices in this space and offered some initial analysis. Now, we'll revisit the UFC Freedom 250 odds with a look at the updated prices and line movements.
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The UFC card is marked by heavy favorites in just about every fight, with American fighters as massive underdogs in two of them. Of course, the most noteworthy such underdog is iconic brawler Justin Gaethje taking on sinister Georgian sniper and lightweight champion Ilia Topuria in the main event.
The only fight that guarantees a USA-based winner is the All-American middleweight matchup between Bo Nickal and Kyle Daukaus.
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Here are the UFC Freedom current odds compared to the opening prices.
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UFC Freedom 250 card, updated odds (via FanDuel)
- Main event opening odds: Ilia Topuria (-600) vs. Justin Gaethje (+400) for undisputed lightweight title; Current odds: Topuria (-750), Gaethje (+460)
- Co-main event opening odds: Alex Pereira (-125) vs. Ciryl Gane (-105), for interim heavyweight title; Current odds: Pereira (-113), Gane (-113)
- Opening odds: Sean O'Malley (-380) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+260), ranked bantamweights; Current odds: O'Malley (-430), Zahabi (+300)
- Opening odds: Mauricio Ruffy (-600) vs. Michael Chandler (+400), lightweights; Current odds: Ruffy (-670), Chandler (+430)
- Opening odds: Bo Nickal (-350) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+250), middleweights; Current odds: Nickal (-330), Daukaus (+240)
- Opening odds: Diego Lopes (-200) vs. Steve Garcia (+150), featherweights; Current odds: Lopes (-192), Garcia (+148)
- Opening odds: Josh Hokit (-240) vs. Derrick Lewis (+200), heavyeights: Current odds: Hokit (-350), Lewis (+270)
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UFC Freedom 250 updated analysis, picks
In the broader picture, the UFC 250 Freedom card odds have seen somewhat minimal movement aside from a price increase on some of the heavy favorites. The only underdogs to see modest action thus far are Daukaus and Garcia, though their prices haven;t changed much.
It stands to reason many MMA bettors will likely parlay the big chalks in search of a decent payout, though the best individual value will come from method-of-victory and exact-round props.
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Not surprisingly, the majority of MMA observers believe the noted assassin Topuria, who has already knocked out the likes of champions Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, will make relatively easy work of the 37-year-old and battle-worn Gaethje. But the money line odds on the 29-year-old Topuria make him unplayable for a straight bet. Topuria by KO/TKO is at -210 and would make for a reasonable parlay leg or modest straight bet, while Topuria in the first round at +270 will likely be the popular play for those seeking a plus-money position on the champion.
The co-main event has settled in as a firm pick 'em between Gane and Pereira, who is seeking to make history by becoming the first UFC fighter to hold titles in three separate weight classes. We maintain a slight lean on Gane -113 because of his versatility and experience at the heavyweight level, but Pereira by KO/TKO at +155 provides some value for backers of the power-striking Brazilian.
Although former bantamweight champion O'Malley has promised a highlight-reel knockout, he hasn't notched one in nearly three years and is a historically slow starter. Zahabi should be willing to engage, but he has shown durability, with just one knockout loss in his MMA career. We anticipate another somewhat risk-averse approach, as we saw in his last fight against Yadong Song and see him squeaking out another narrow decision victory. Although DraftKings and most other outlets currently do not have props listed for this fight, some betting analysts have projected O'Malley by decision to offer a price in the +150 range, and that is a stance we support.
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The only underdog we lean toward winning outright is Daukaus (+240), who has gone 6-0 and has back-to-back finishes in the UFC since his return to the promotion following an initial departure four years ago. The 33-year-old Philadelphia native has looked polished and confident, and we expect him to provide a challenge to the celebrated but still mostly untested Nickal. Daukaus is arguably the second-best opponent Nickal has been paired with and the other, Reiner de Ridder, knocked Nickal out in the second round last May.
Other leans include Ruffy by TKO/KO in Rounds 1-2 at -125 and Lopes by KO/TKO at +265. There are currently no method-of-victory odds posted for Hokit vs. Lewis, but Hokit by TKO/KO will likely come with a chalky price but could be used in parlays. We will update this piece as odds become available.
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