Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Value lies in late-game matchups
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Thursday night's slate
There's only a modest eight-game Major League Baseball slate on tap Thursday, with just three such contests starting at 6:45 p.m. ET or later.
The good news is, for those who like to play the strikeout prop betting market, the SportsLine Projection Model found its top value positions in these late games. Its projections include two lucrative underdog plays and one modest favorite, and two of the three are 4.5-star plays on the model's 5-star scale.
Below, we'll take a look at the model's top strikeout props from matchups that include the Atlanta Braves visiting the Philadelphia Phillies (6:45 p.m. ET), the Miami Marlins visiting the New York Mets (7:10 p.m. ET) and the New York Yankees traveling to meet the Chicago White Sox (7:40 p.m. ET). The model's plays are recommended when a player prop registers at least 4 stars on the model's 5-star rating scale.
Here are the model's top strikeout prop plays for Thursday, August 28:
Cal Quantrill Over 3.5 strikeouts (+112) vs. Phillies (6:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.0 strikeouts
The right-hander has had some rough outings of late but has still clipped this strikeout total against nine teams this season. The model sees an edge of about a half-run based on its projections that see him recording four strikeouts in Thursday's start against the Phillies. The plus-money price makes this a 4-star model recommendation.
Adam Mazur Over 3.5 strikeouts (+110) vs. Mets (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
The 24-year-old Marlins righty allowed five hits, four earned runs and four walks in his previous outing against the Phillies but also notched five strikeouts in 5.2 innings of work. The model sees him likely to reach that number again and sees a full strikeout of value against the sportsbook odds. Another plus-money play with a 4.5-star rating.
Will Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts (-150) vs. White Sox (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts
The Yankees right-hander has clipped this number in nine of his past outings when the Yankees are favored and playing an opponent with a losing record. He's averaging 6.5 strikeouts in such circumstances, and the model sees Warren averaging 5.7 strikeouts in this matchup.
