Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Reds starter against Pirates at plus odds
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Friday's 15-game schedule
Friday features the first game of a three-game series between two potential World Series teams as the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays visit the reigning champs, the Los Angeles Dodgers, on Friday in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 66-49 and lead the NL West by two games over the rival Padres. The Blue Jays have been the hottest team in the American League for a while now and are 68-48, which is tops in the AL East and the AL as a while. Toronto is fresh off dismantling the Rockies by a combined 45-6 score across a three-game sweep.
Friday's pitching matchup features two future Hall of Famers: Los Angeles' Clayton Kershaw (5-2, 3.29 ERA) against Toronto's Max Scherzer (2-1, 4.39), who were teammates on the Dodgers in 2021.
Top sportsbooks have set Kershaw's total pitcher strikeout prop at 3.5 and Scherzer's at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Kershaw Over 3.5 as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Scherzer Over 5.5 as a 3-star play.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Friday's schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout props that the model has rated at 5 stars, including one that would pay plus-money, and one at 4 stars.
Chase Burns Under 7.5 strikeouts vs. Pirates (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.0 strikeouts
This is the model's best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. While the Cincinnati rookie has shown electric stuff in his brief career, Burns (0-3, 6.04) still has gone Under 7.5 strikeouts in two of his six starts this season. That doesn't include his last start, which he left early because of a weather delay. In the first game of the series between the teams on Thursday, the Pirates struck out just five times against Reds pitching.
Brandon Woodruff Over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Mets (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 6.8 strikeouts
The 32-year-old Milwaukee righty has been terrific since his return to the rotation last month. Woodruff (3-0, 2.22), who missed all of 2024 while recovering from shoulder surgery, has struck out 37 batters in 28.1 innings and has gone Over 5.5 strikeouts in four of five starts this season. His strikeout percentage of 35.6% far exceeds his previous single-season best of 31.1%, which was set in the shortened 2020 season.
Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.0 strikeouts
A strong case can be made for the Cubs ace going Over this modest number. He has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in 15 of 22 starts this season. Boyd (11-4, 2.34) has been hot since the beginning of July, posting a 1.62 ERA and averaging almost a strikeout per inning (36 in 39 innings). When the Cardinals last saw Boyd on July 6, they struck out nine times and managed just three hits in five innings. They also struck out 14 times in their last game on Wednesday against the Dodgers.
