Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Giants starter against Padres

The Seattle Mariners aim to break out of their funk when they visit the National League East-leading Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday for the middle contest of their three-game series. Seattle (68-58), which trails the Houston Astros (69-56) by 1 1/2 games for first place in the American League West but occupies a wild card spot, has lost three straight and five of its last six after beginning its nine-game road trip with a victory against the Baltimore Orioles.

Philadelphia (72-53) has a 5 1/2-game division lead over the New York Mets (66-58) and is looking to reach double digits in runs a third straight time. After posting an 11-9 win in the finale of their four-game set against the Washington Nationals on Sunday, the Phillies rolled past the Mariners 12-7 in the opener of this series.

Bryce Miller (2-5, 5.73 ERA) will be activated from the injured list and make his first start since June 6. The 26-year-old right-hander, who has been sidelined with an elbow injury, recorded four strikeouts over 4 1/3 innings in his first career outing against Philadelphia last season.

The Phillies counter with Cristopher Sanchez (11-4, 2.45), who ranks fifth in the major leagues in ERA and eighth in the NL with 157 strikeouts. The 28-year-old Dominican left-hander has fanned six or more batters in six of his last seven starts, including last time out against the Cincinnati Reds (six strikeouts in six innings).

The top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for Sanchez (Over -114, Under -114) at 6.5 and Miller (Over -159, Under +122) at 3.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Miller's Over 3.5 strikeouts prop as a 4.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Sanchez's Under 6.5 as a 3-star play.

However, the model has found better value on Tuesday's 16-game schedule, as there is one pitcher strikeout player prop that it has rated at 5 stars and two others at 4.5 stars with better odds. Here they are:

Kai-Wei Tang Under 3.5 strikeouts (-167) vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 1.3 strikeouts

Teng will be making his third start of the season for the Giants and second straight against San Diego. The 26-year-old righty from Taiwan recorded four strikeouts across 3 1/3 innings versus the New York Mets in his first major-league start on Aug. 2 but lasted only 1 2/3 frames and did not fan a batter against the Padres last Wednesday. That is not surprising since San Diego is the most difficult team in the NL to strike out this season, as it has whiffed just 871 times—87 fewer than the second-ranked Chicago Cubs.

Mitch Keller Over 3.5 strikeouts (-122) vs. Blue Jays (6:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts

Keller has gone Over his projected strikeout total in three of his last five home starts, averaging 4.8 over that span. The 29-year-old righty has fanned at least four batters in 10 of his 14 turns at PNC Park this season. Keller, who registered five strikeouts over four innings against the Brewers in Milwaukee last Wednesday, struck out eight across six frames in his only previous outing versus the Blue Jays in June 2024.

Jake Irvin Over 3.5 strikeouts (-103) vs. Mets (6:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts

Irvin has recorded three strikeouts or fewer in each of his last five starts. But the 28-year-old right-hander fanned four batters in each of his previous two turns against the Mets this season. Despite his recent trend, Irvin's chances of going Over his projected total for this matchup are good, as New York has struck out at least eight times in each of its last five contests and whiffed a total of 31 times in its three-game series versus the Mariners this past weekend.