Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Dodgers starter against Rockies
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Wednesday's 15-game schedule
Two division leaders in the American League square off when the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros meet on Wednesday in the second game of a three-game series at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Blue Jays (83-61) own the best record in the AL and lead the AL East by three games over the Yankees. On the flip side, the Astros (78-67) lead the AL West by one game over the Mariners. In Tuesday's Game 1, Toronto rallied for a 4-3 victory in 10 innings.
Wednesday's pitching matchup pits the Blue Jays' José Berríos (9-5, 4.02 ERA) against the Astros' Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.68). Berrios is coming off his shortest outing of the season: six runs in two innings against the Reds. Meanwhile, Alexander is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA over his last seven starts.
Top sportsbooks have set Alexander's total pitcher strikeout prop at 3.5 and Berrios' at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Alexander Over 3.5 as a 5-star play on its 5-star scale and Berrios Over 4.5 as a 4-star play.
Alexander Over 3.5 is the model's best pitcher strikeout prop on Wednesday's 15-game schedule. In addition, the model has two pitcher strikeout props rated at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus money.
Jason Alexander Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts
The 32-year-old righty has been a pleasant surprise for the Astros this season. Since joining Houston in mid-June, Alexander is 4-1 with a 3.19 ERA and has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in six of nine starts. He also has been sensational on the road with Houston, going 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA. He will go up against a Toronto ballclub that struck out 10 times against Astros pitching on Tuesday.
Jameson Taillon Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Braves (7:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
After being out since Aug. 24 with a strained left groin, the veteran Cubs righty will return to the rotation to face Atlanta. Taillon (9-6, 4.15) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 13 of 19 starts this season. In his only rehab start at Triple-A Iowa, he struck out six over 3⅔ innings. On Wednesday he will go up against a Braves ballclub that averages 8.60 strikeouts per game, the 11th most in all of baseball, and has scored just nine runs total over its past four games.
Blake Snell Under 7.5 strikeouts vs. Rockies (10:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.3 strikeouts
The two-time Cy Young Award winner makes his seventh start for the Dodgers since returning to the rotation after rehabbing a left shoulder injury. Snell (3-4, 3.19) has gone Under 7.5 strikeouts in five of eight starts this season. He also is coming off arguably his worst start of the year: five earned runs on nine hits and three walks in five innings in a loss to the Pirates. According to Baseball Savant, Snell's strikeout percentage of 23.9 this year is his worst since the 2017 season.
