Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Mets starter against Dodgers at plus odds

David Peterson looks to win his third consecutive start when the New York Mets visit the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday for the finale of a four-game series between division leaders. Peterson (4-2, 2.69 ERA) went 0-1 over his first three outings in May before ending the month with back-to-back victories against Dodgers and Colorado Rockies in which he allowed a total of just three runs across 13 1/3 innings. 

Los Angeles, which lost two of the first three games of this series after dropping two of three at New York less than two weeks ago, counter with Landon Knack (3-2, 4.58). The 27-year-old Knack took the loss versus the Mets on May 25 despite giving up only one earned run over six frames.

New York, which owns a 1 1/2-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East, cruised past Los Angeles 6-1 on Wednesday for its ninth win in 11 games.  Pete Alonso was the offensive star for the Mets, belting a two-run homer in the first inning and hitting a three-run shot in the eighth.

The loss was the third in four contests for the Dodgers, who are one game ahead of the San Diego Padres in the NL West. Andy Pages collected three of Los Angeles' six hits in the setback, including a one-out solo homer in the ninth that prevented a shutout.

Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for both Peterson (Over +106, Under -140) and Knack (Over -102, Under -128) at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Peterson Over 4.5 as a 4.5-star play on its five-star scale and Knack Under 4.5 as a 3-star play.

In addition to Peterson, the model has found other good value on Thursday's 13-game schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 5 stars, including one that would pay plus money. Here they are:

Noah Cameron Over 3.5 strikeouts (-138) vs. Cardinals (1:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts

Cameron will be making his fifth start of his major-league career and second against the Cardinals. The 25-year-old rookie left-hander worked 6 1/3 strong innings versus St. Louis at home on May 17, allowing one run and two hits while recording three strikeouts, but was saddled with the loss in a 1-0 setback. He will be eager to face Masyn Winn on Thursday, as he fanned the St. Louis shortstop twice in that contest. Cameron only registered two strikeouts across 6 1/3 frames against the Cincinnati Reds in his last outing but produced a 6 2/3-frame, eight-strikeout performance versus the Minnesota Twins in his previous turn.

David Peterson Over 4.5 strikeouts (+106) vs. Dodgers (4:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.3 strikeouts

Peterson has gone Over this number in four of his last five starts, including the one against the Dodgers at home. In that outing, the 29-year-old southpaw fanned seven batters across 7 2/3 innings. Peterson struck out reigning NL MVP Shohei Ohtani three times in that contest, and Freddie Freeman has whiffed seven times in 24 career at-bats against the lefty.

Cole Ragans Over 5.5 strikeouts (+102) vs. Cardinals (7:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 7.2 strikeouts

Ragans is expected to be activated from the injured list and make his first start since exiting his outing against the Cardinals on May 16 with a groin injury. The 27-year-old left-hander suffered the loss in that contest, as he surrendered four runs and five hits over five innings. He struck out seven batters in the setback, however, marking the seventh time he has gone Over this number in nine turns this season. Ragans always is a candidate for a high strikeout total, as he has reached double digits on four occasions already this year.