Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Giants starter against Rays at plus odds
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Friday's 15-game schedule
The lead in the National League West will be on the line when the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers begin a crucial three-game series on Friday at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. After trailing the Dodgers for much of the season, the Padres (69-52) enter Friday with a one-game lead in the division over Los Angeles (68-53). The Dodgers once led the NL West by nine games but are 12-21 over their last 33 games.
On Friday future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 3.14) will take the mound for the Dodgers. Michael King was scheduled to start for San Diego, but he was placed on the 15-day injured list on Thursday because of left knee inflammation. No starter for the Padres had been named as of Friday morning.
Top sportsbooks have set Kershaw's total pitcher strikeout prop at 3.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Kershaw Under 3.5 as a 2.5-star play on its 5-star scale.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Friday's 15-game schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout prop that the model has rated at 5 stars and two at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus money.
Braxton Ashcraft Under 3.5 strikeouts vs. Cubs (2:20 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 1.4 strikeouts
After spending much of the year coming out of the bullpen, the 25-year-old Pirates rookie righty makes his second consecutive start and third start overall this season. Ashcraft (3-2, 3.19) hasn't gone longer than 3⅓ innings this year. That came in his last appearance when he struck out five against Cincinnati. But in his only other start this season, he struck out just two in three innings. On Friday he will face a Cubs ballclub that averages just 7.78 strikeouts per game, the fifth best mark in all of baseball.
Aaron Civale Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Royals (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
This is a reasonable total for the 30-year-old White Sox righty. Civale (3-7, 4.91) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 10 of 15 starts this season between Milwaukee and Chicago. Over his last four starts, he has cleared 3.5 strikeouts easily, striking out six, six, eight and six batters. Three starts ago he fanned six in five innings against a Cubs team that doesn't strike out much at all. (See Ashcraft above.)
Landen Roupp Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Rays (10:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
Sportsbooks are offering plus money on the 26-year-old Giants righty going Over. Roupp (7-6, 3.11) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 14 of 20 starts this season and has averaged 7.0 strikeouts over his last two starts. On Friday he will face a Tampa Bay ballclub that doesn't strike out much but is coming off an 11-strikeout game on Wednesday against the Athletics.
