Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Diamondbacks starter against Padres

There are 15 games on the MLB schedule for Tuesday, August 5 with two ace pitchers going for their 13th wins of the season. Boston Red Sox star Garrett Crochet brings a 2.23 ERA to the mound when his team faces the Kansas City Royals, while Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta squares off against the Atlanta Braves. The Red Sox and Brewers are both in the playoff picture but in different situations. Boston has the best wild card spot in the AL while Milwaukee is trying to secure the No. 1 seed in the NL. The Brewers are three games up on the Chicago Cubs in the NL standings.

Top sportsbooks have set Crochet's total strikeout player prop at 7.5 while Peralta's is at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model rates both Crochet Under 7.5 and Peralta Over 5.5 as 3.5-star plays on its 5-star scale. The model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Tuesday's schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout player prop that the model has rated at 5 stars and two at 4.5 stars. Here they are:

Ryan Bergert Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts

This is the model's best pitcher strikeout prop for Tuesday. Bergert (1-0, 2.78) makes his first start for Kansas City after the team acquired him in a trade with the Padres at the trade deadline. Since becoming a fixture in the San Diego rotation in early June, the 25-year-old rookie has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in five of his seven starts, averaging 5.0 strikeouts over his last six starts. On Tuesday he stares down a Red Sox ballclub that averages 8.98 strikeouts per game, the third most in the majors.

Joey Wentz Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Brewers (7:15 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts

Since being claimed off waivers by the Braves last month, Wentz (2-2, 5.02) has gone from reliever to starter, and his strikeout numbers have increased because of it. The 27-year-old journeyman lefty has started three straight games and has struck out two, six and seven batters in those games, averaging 1.0 strikeouts per inning. He is coming off his best performance of the season: 6⅔ shutout innings while allowing only one hit and striking out seven against the Royals.

Ryne Nelson Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.3 strikeouts

The 27-year-old Diamondbacks righty has been on a roll for more than two months. Since becoming a regular in the rotation in late May, Nelson (6-3, 3.20) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in eight of his 12 starts and seven of his last eight. He has a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his past nine starts. In his last start, he struck out a season-high eight batters while walking none and allowing only one earned run against the AL Central-leading Tigers. On Tuesday Nelson will see a San Diego club that ranks 24th in all of baseball in runs scored.