Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Cubs starter against Rockies at plus odds

The Philadelphia Phillies' Zack Wheeler can join the ranks of seven-game winners in the majors when he takes the mound on Wednesday against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Wheeler (6-1, 2.42 ERA) has won each of his last four starts and ranks fourth in the majors in WHIP (0.88) and fifth in strikeouts (88). With a win on Wednesday, he would become the sixth seven-game winner in the majors.

Wheeler will square off against the Braves' AJ Smith-Shawver (3-2, 3.67), who is 3-0 after losing his first two starts of the season.

The top sportsbooks have set Wheeler's total strikeout player prop at 6.5 (Over -134, Under +115), while Smith-Shawver's is 4.5 (Over -102, Under -115). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Wheeler Over 6.5 as a 3.5-star play on its five-star scale and Smith-Shawver Over 4.5 as a 4-star play.

However, the model has found value elsewhere on Wednesday's 15-game schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 5 stars and a third rated at 4.5 stars that would pay plus-money. Here they are:

Paxton Schultz Over 2.5 strikeouts (-143) vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts

This is the model's top pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesday. A 27-year-old rookie for the Blue Jays, Schultz (0-0, 2.53) will make his first career MLB start. But in 10.2 relief innings this season, he has 13 strikeouts (1.22 strikeouts per inning). According to Baseball Savant, Schultz would rank in highly in both whiff rate (31.8) and chase rate (31.5) if he had enough innings to qualify. On Wednesday he will face a Texas lineup that ranks 28th in the majors in batting average (.222) and 27th in OPS (.643). 

Matthew Boyd Under 7.5 strikeouts (-140) vs. Rockies (8:05 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.8 strikeouts

Even though Colorado has struggled offensively this season, especially against lefties (a MLB-worst 158 strikeouts), this is a big total for Boyd (4-2, 3.42). The Cubs lefty has gone Under 7.5 strikeouts in eight of 10 starts this season. In his last start Boyd struggled, giving up four runs on eight hits while striking out just three in 4.0 innings against the Reds.  

Tanner Gordon Over 3.5 strikeouts (+100) vs. Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts

Boyd's counterpart on Wednesday, Gordon (1-1, 4.38) is also a good play, according to the model. The 27-year-old Colorado righty will be making his third start this season. In his previous two, he went Over 3.5 strikeouts both times, fanning four and five batters. In his last start, he limited the potent Yankees lineup to two runs on five hits while striking out five in a 3-2 Rockies victory.