Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Cubs starter against Blue Jays at plus odds

National League Cy Young Award favorite Paul Skenes will try to slow down the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers when he and the Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Brewers on Tuesday at American Family Field in Milwaukee. Despite being just 7-8, Skenes enters the game as the clear -500 favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award. He leads the majors in ERA (1.93) and ranks fourth in WHIP (0.93). On Tuesday he will square off against a Brewers team that has won 10 in a row. Milwaukee will send Freddy Peralta (13-5, 3.03) to the mound.

Top sportsbooks have set both Skenes' and Peralta's total pitcher strikeout prop at 6.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Peralta Under 6.5 as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Skenes Over 6.5 as a 3-star play.

However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Tuesday's schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout prop that the model has rated at 4.5 stars that would pay plus money and two at 4 stars.

Ben Brown Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.5 strikeouts

This is the model's best pitcher strikeout prop for Tuesday. The 25-year-old Cubs righty has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in 11 of 15 starts this season. The SportsLine Project Model also notes that Brown (5-7, 6.04) has gone Over his pitcher strikeouts market in five of his last eight games when up against teams with a winning record, averaging 5.6 pitcher strikeouts per game. On Tuesday he will go up against a Toronto ballclub that has averaged 11.7 strikeouts over its past three games, including 14 strikeouts in its last game, on Sunday against the Dodgers. 

Spencer Strider Over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Mets (7:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 7.1 strikeouts

The 26-year-old Braves righty (5-9, 4.04) has yet to return to his form before having surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, but he has shown the ability to pop with swing-and-miss stuff this season. He has gone Over 6.5 strikeouts seven times this year, including 13- and 11-strikeout performances. The SportsLine Project Model also notes that Strider has gone Over his strikeout prop three times in his last five road starts, averaging 6.8 strikeouts per game.

Dustin May Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Astros (8:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts

The 27-year-old righty makes his second start for the Red Sox since being acquired in a trade with the Dodgers. May (6-8, 4.93) has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in 12 of 19 starts this season, including six of his last nine games when facing teams with a winning record. On Tuesday he faces a Houston ballclub that has struck out 45 times over its last five games.