It feels like a bit of a make-or-break season in Houston for quarterback C.J. Stroud, as he has clearly regressed from his 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Stroud wants to be in the $50 million per year quarterback club and is eligible for an extension, but the Texans don't appear in a major rush and have already slapped the fifth-year option on the former No. 2 overall pick.
Since I'm a glass half-full guy, first the good news: DeMeco Ryans and Stroud are only the second head coach/quarterback duo ever with a playoff win in each of their first three seasons in the league, after John Harbuagh and Joe Flacco in Baltimore. But Houston remains the only active NFL franchise to never play in a conference title game and is only the third team in history with a Wild Card win and a Divisional Round loss in three straight seasons.
I believe the Texans will repeat as AFC South champions, and they are +110 favorites if you want to try futures betting on any of the best betting apps. To finally reach that AFC title game, they are +850 sixth-favorites. That's certainly possible with the NFL's best defense, if Stroud can perhaps return to 2023 form.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Houston for the fifth-most wins in the NFL with 10.6, a 49.1% shot at the division and 13.4% for the AFC title game. The team's win total is set at 9.5 at BetMGM, and Over is taking nearly 90% of tickets and handle. Fans can stay up to date with information from our NFL news page, and bettors should also look for picks from the SportsLine Projection Model and our experts during the 2026 NFL season.
Stroud had one of the great rookie seasons of any quarterback in leading the NFL in passing yards at 273.9 yards per game and also topping in TD:INT ratio. He is just one of four QBs to average at least 10 wins and 4,000 passing yards through his first three seasons (including playoffs), along with Dan Marino, Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton.
But the past two seasons, he's averaging only 218.3 YPG, with a combined rating of 89.6, and has 20 interceptions after only five in the first season. Stroud is the only QB in history with a passing yards per game drop of at least 50 yards from Year 1 to Years 2-3 (minimum of 40 starts). Last season could not have ended any uglier for Stroud, as he looked completely baffled in the 28-16 Divisional Round loss at New England, throwing four picks.
With one interception and a whopping five fumbles (NFL playoff record) in the Wild Card Round win over Pittsburgh, Stroud became the first player with five or more INTs and five or more fumbles in a single postseason. There are some whispers that maybe he's not a big-game player. At Ohio State, he was 0-2 vs. Michigan.
For this season, Stroud is +4500 to win NFL MVP, +3500 to lead the league in passing yards, +4500 in passing TDs but among the favorites at +1400 to be No. 1 in interceptions thrown. He is given Over/Under totals of 3.599.5 passing yards and 22.5 touchdowns. Stroud didn't come close to topping either last year, but he missed three games.
Stroud was only sacked 23 times last year, but the Texans opted to remake the offensive line anyway, signing free agents in Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller and taking Georgia Tech guard Keylan Rutledge with their first-round pick at No. 26 overall. In addition, the team added a very solid running back in David Montgomery to pair with Woody Marks, who had a promising 2025 rookie year. Houston ranked 22nd in rushing last year at 108.0 yards per game.
But perhaps the biggest help for Stroud comes in the form of wideout Tank Dell. The third-round pick from 2023 missed all of last season after he suffered multiple torn ligaments and a dislocated kneecap in his team's Week 16 loss to Kansas City in 2024. In 25 career games, Dell has 1,376 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
He's not former Texans legendary wideout Andre Johnson or anything but is definitely an upgrade from what the team had in 2025. Nico Collins had a fine year with 71 catches for 1,117 yards and six scores, but the second-leading receiver who wasn't tight end Dalton Schultz had only 41 catches for 685 yards and that was then-rookie Jayden Higgins.
The Houston defense will keep the team in every game after leading the NFL in total defense (277.2 YPG) and ranking second in scoring defense (17.4 PPG) a season ago. It tied an NFL-record, including playoffs, by holding 14 teams below their season scoring average.
Led by pass-rushing stud Will Anderson Jr., who was chosen one pick after Stroud in 2023 and got a mammoth three-year, $150 million extension in the offseason, the Texans defense has had five straight seasons allowing fewer total yards per game, tied for the league's longest such streak since the merger in 1970.
That streak pre-dates Andreson by a couple of years. He and Danielle Hunter have combined for 50 sacks since 2024, the most of any teammate duo. Anderson had 12 last year and is set Over/Under 12.25. Hunter had a team-best 15 and is set at 12.75. They are both +600 to lead the NFL in sacks. The Texans open the preseason Thursday vs. the Chargers.
