An important series with potential National League wild-card implications opens tonight when the Philadelphia Phillies visit the St. Louis Cardinals, although neither club is playing all that great since the All-Star break. My angle here is Phillies rookie Andrew Painter, and the fact he is winless in 16 straight outings, yet they keep putting him out there because of a lack of back-end rotation depth.
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Philadelphia (63-56) was in control of a wild-card spot entering the break but is 9-13 out of it as some of the magic of interim manager Don Mattingly has worn off, for whatever reason. Although the trade addition of second baseman Luis Arraez already has paid major dividends as the three-time batting champion has delivered some clutch hits. There was some good news from Sunday's win over Toronto as well, with Kyle Schwarber homering twice to end a 17-game drought.
The SportsLine Projection Model still gives the Phillies an 88.2% shot at the postseason, while FanDuel prices them -470 to get there, which equates to 82.5%.
Phillies-Cardinals MLB same-game parlay
- St. Louis alt +2
- Andrew Painter 3+ strikeouts
BetRivers SGP price: +104
They have the lineup and the top of the rotation to potentially make some noise, but there is a giant chasm after the Big 3 pitchers of Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo â the Phillies are 48-19 in games one of them starts. You often don't need more than three good starting pitchers in the playoffs with days off mixed in, but you do need more than three to get there and not wear those top guys out. The Phillies did not acquire starting pitching depth at the trade deadline.
"We feel, if we can make it to the postseason, our starting rotation is in really solid shape," Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said of that decision. "Other people are looking to add to their top three. In our situation, that really wasn't a necessity. So if we were going to do it and add somebody, they would have had to be significantly better, in our opinion, than Andrew."
Which brings us to the 23-year-old Painter, once of the top prospects in the majors but clearly struggling to find his way at 1-8 with a 6.48 ERA and .299 opponents' batting average in 16 outings (14 starts) spanning 75.0 innings. Painter won his first start of the year on March 31 vs. Washington but obviously hasn't gotten a W since.
Philadelphia has just two victories team-wise in that 16-outing winless streak. If you had bet $100 on each of his 14 starts on Philly to win, you'd be down $880. Only four pitchers in MLB have been worse in that regard (shockingly, one is Paul Skenes).
The club had sent Painter to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in mid-June hoping that he would figure things out, and Painter had a 4.56 ERA in 23.2 innings in five starts. He has looked better in two starts since being recalled, throwing a quality outing in a no-decision vs. Baltimore and then allowing a run and four hits last Wednesday vs. Washington in another ND (but another team loss). Painter was pulled with left hamstring tightness but has been cleared for Monday.
This will be Painter's first career look at the Cardinals, and the model has him at 5.3 innings, 4.1 strikeouts, 4.8 hits allowed and 2.0 earned runs. The first inning has been a major problem for him, with an 8.36 ERA and four homers allowed.
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St. Louis is right at .500 (59-59), and the model gives it a 15.4% shot of extra baseball for the first time since 2022 (+980 at FanDuel). I think, smartly, the front office realized the young team was overachieving a bit this year and instead sold off a few pieces at the deadline for more prospects. The Cards could be realistic contenders as soon as 2027 if some of the young pitching keeps improving.
It's expected to be 26-year-old Hunter Dobbins (2-2, 3.60 ERA) starting for the Cardinals.The acquisition from Boston in the big Willson Contreras trade has been used as a reliever and starter in eight big-league appearances this year. A rotation spot for the rest of the season is available for Dobbins after the Cards traded Dustin May to Milwaukee at the deadline.
Last time out, after having been briefly sent to the minors, Dobbins allowed two runs and four hits over 6.1 innings of a no-decision at the Yankees. He said he pitched more in "attack mode," and the innings were a season high because the Yanks were swinging at early pitches so at-bats ended sooner. This will be Dobbins' first career look at the Phillies. The model has him at 5.1 innings, 4.3 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 2.0 earned runs.
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The Phillies' bullpen might be very thin tonight with closer Jhoan Duran and a couple of other high-leverage guys having been used the past two games. So they'd like a bit of length from Painter, who has struck out at least three in nine straight outings. The model has a close Philly win, and a one-run victory works just fine. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
