All four MLB Wild-Card Round openers take place Tuesday, with the first pitch from the National League -- and the NL East, to be more specific -- as the Phillies visit the Braves to open the best-of-3 series. While Atlanta has no-doubt ace Chris Sale on the mound (though his playoff record is sketchy), Philadelphia is going to mix and match today pitcher-wise. Bet $5+ on any of today's MLB games to get $150 in bonus bets at DraftKings Sportsbook:
It's a 2 p.m. ET first pitch from Truist Park and will be shown on NBC. The weather looks outstanding: Sunny skies. High near 83F. Winds light and variable. At -199 via DraftKings, Atlanta is taking 79% of handle and 91% of bets, while the total of 6.5 is taking solid action to the Under.
It's the third time in the past five years that these rivals meet in the playoffs. The Phillies won both the 2023 and 2022 NLDS in four games each over the Braves (the Phils also won the only other postseason matchup in 1993). That 2023 Atlanta team led the majors in regular-season wins with 104, and the Braves had home-field advantage in both series.
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Phillies vs. Braves MLB same-game parlay
- Atlanta money line
- Race to 6 runs neither
DrafKings SGP price: +124 (subject to change)
This year was the Braves' seventh NL East title in the past nine seasons, but they have reached just one Fall Classic in that span, winning it in 2021. That's also the last time they reached the NLCS. Philadelphia, meanwhile, became only the sixth team in MLB history to reach the postseason despite a double-digit losing streak.
On this series line, Atlanta is -125 and Philadelphia +105, with a Braves two-game sweep as the +210 leader and a Phillies sweep as the +380 long shot. The Over/Under is 2.5 games, with the Over a slight favorite.
Atlanta won the regular-season series 9-4. Ronald Acuna Jr. fared well in it, batting .380 with four homers and 10 RBI. Austin Riley also had four dingers with 11 knocked in. Michael Harris hit .419 with three homers and nine RBI. Phillies star Kyle Schwarber, who tied with the Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstong for the big-league lead with 45 homers, hit five dingers in the season series and knocked in 10. Schwarber's 23 career playoff homers are tied for third-most in MLB history.
Philadelphia trade acquisition Luis Arraez played in seven of the 13 and hit only .250. The three-time batting champion was leading the NL last week in average until he sprained his left ankle Thursday and hasn't played since. That allowed Arizona's Gabriel Moreno to just finish ahead of Arraez at .311 to .310 for the NL crown. He is not on the WC roster, which surprised me a little as I thought maybe the team would put him on there to potentially pinch-hit.
The Phillies almost staged the biggest late-season choke in the Wild Card Era but managed to snap a six-game losing streak on Sunday in the season finale to claim the NL's final WC spot over Arizona (which ended up losing Sunday anyway). The issue is that the Phillies had to use co-ace Zack Wheeler for most of the game Sunday. He otherwise would have been the Game 1 starter in Atlanta, which is where Wheeler is from.
Jesús Luzardo (14-5, 2.86 ERA) returned from the injured list Sunday and faced live hitters for the first time since Sept. 7. He needed only four pitches to record three outs, and that proved huge in allowing Luzardo to start here as an opener. Not clear how long that will mean and no Over/Under outs recorded at DK, but Luzardo is set at O/U 2.5 Ks. He whiffed a career-high 221 this year, sixth-most in the majors.
Rookie Andrew Painter apparently will be the bulk guy, which is an interesting choice considering he didn't have a very good year at 3-10 with a 5.40 ERA. The former top prospect is 0-2 this year with a 5.52 ERA and .323 opponents' batting average in three starts against the Braves. The 23-year-old was better in September with a 3.49 ERA and threw a quality start last Thursday in his finale vs. Milwaukee. Acuna is 3-for-9 with a homer off him and Harris 5-for-6 with a homer and double.
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While the Phillies had to push to the last second in the regular season just to get in the field, the Braves really have been on cruise control for a bit, locked in as the NL's No. 3 seed. So they have everything lined up perfectly just about in terms of healthy players, their best starter and a very rested bullpen.
Sale of course won the 2024 NL Cy Young Award but hasn't pitched in the playoffs since 2021 with Boston. In three total postseasons, Sale is 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA in 10 appearances spanning 34.1 innings; 7.24 ERA in his seven starts, completing less than five innings in four. But the southpaw was his typically terrific self this season at 14-9 with a 2.16 ERA (third in MLB), 200 strikeouts (T-11) and 0.98 WHIP (fifth).
In four starts against the Phillies, he was 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 26 innings, holding batters to a collective .167 average. No chance the Phils sit former NL MVP Bryce Harper, but he's a brutal 2-for-21 career off Sale with 11 strikeouts.
The model forecasts Sale at 5.9 innings, 7.3 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 2.0 earned runs. He faces a Phillies lineup that could not hit at all in September, ranking 29th batting average (.226), slugging percentage (.356), OPS (.660) and runs per game (3.71).
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I don't want to say must-win game for the Braves, but if they lose facing this mish-mash of pitching and then have to stare down Cristopher Sanchez on Wednesday with the season on the line, well that would not be ideal. The model has the Braves by a score of 3.7-3.4. Short of a grand slam, I'd be surprised if either team gets to six. Probably even five, but I'd prefer to be cautious. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
