NFL Week 9 got started with the Jacksonville Jaguars taking down a shorthanded Baltimore Ravens team on Thursday Night Football, and there are plenty of other high-profile games this week. They include a big Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots showdown. So which games in Week 9 are the ones where we can expect strong showings from underdogs? Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25+ on NFL games, and receive a $55 bonus here:

We've turned to the SportsLine Projection Model to help us find some of the most likely underdogs to make some noise in Sunday's NFL games. The model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns. Bet the NFL with the BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:

Best underdogs for NFL Week 9

 Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25, and receive a $55 bonus here:

Commanders +4.5 vs. Rams

The Rams have won two straight to get back to .500 but now have to fly across the country to play a game in the 1 p.m. ET slot. Los Angeles is certainly nothing to be trifled with from a raw talent standpoint, but there's a reason the Rams are merely .500 instead of running away with the top seed in the NFC like many expected. Matthew Stafford is on the injury report with an arm issue. Washington covers in 60% of the SportsLine model's simulations.

Packers +3 vs. Patriots 

The Green Bay offense looks like it's humming again. The Patriots have remembered how to win football games, but they've also feasted in recent weeks on the likes of the Jets, Raiders and Dolphins. A fully functioning Green Bay team should provide a much sterner test, even in Foxborough. The Packers cover in 52% of the model's simulations. Bet on the NFL with DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets plus 3 free months of NBA League Pass when you spend $5+:

Vikings +3 vs. Bills

These teams are almost polar opposites. The Vikings win with elite defense, which until last week was enough to paper over an offense getting almost nothing from the quarterback position. The Bills steamroll teams with Josh Allen moving the ball at will but struggle to get stops. 

Minnesota will need more from its quarterback -- whether that be Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz or someone else -- to compete both in this game and in the long run. But if the excellent defense can stymie Allen even a little bit, a cover could be attainable. The Vikings cover the spread in 58% of the model's simulations.