NFL Prop Top 75+ Cheat Sheet for wideouts, tight ends: Back Marvin Harrison Jr., Hunter Henry

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can visit SportsLine for our model's main market bets (spread, total, money line) but if you are looking for ALL our personal best bets for free, check out our recently launched Inside the Lines blog.   

As anyone who bets knows (or should know), lines are highly fluid and it is likely that by the time you read this, the odds presented here will have changed. If the lines have moved in your favor, good for you. If they moved towards our recommended side, then it's just a reminder to keep up with our latest picks at the blog.

Here, we'll take a look at some of the best NFL player prop bets according to value derived from the projection model for receivers and tight ends in Week 2.

Cedric Tillman Over 3.5 receptions (-125 BetMGM)

Like Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco has turned 40, and is a one-time Super Bowl MVP and champion still starting in the NFL. But unlike Rodgers, Flacco does not have receivers who are his guys and will not fight to bring in an Allen Lazard type and target him like he's a WR1. Flacco threw the ball eight times to rookie RB Dylan Sampson, nine times to rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. and eight times to Cedric Tillman.

Even though the Ravens defense isn't great against the run, their offense should put up plenty of points, in which case Flacco and the Browns will be forced to pass it a ton to try to have a Bills-like comeback. Tillman caught five of his eight targets for 52 yards and a TD in Week 1. He is just entering his third season as a third-round pick, so it took a season and a half for him to firmly establish himself as WR2.

He was just 2-13 over 3.5 receptions to start his career but has had 4+ in four of his last six games and is projected for 3.5. So at plus money, I like this over, even without a ton of actual line value.

Jalen Tolbert Over 1.5 receptions (+105 BetMGM)

Tolbert played 67% of the snaps in Week 1 last season, but with George Pickens in the mix, that fell to just 44% for last week's season opener. This has resulted in a buy-low spot for Tolbert. Dak's completion line is 21.5. CeeDee Lamb and Pickens' combined reception lines add up to 11. If you give the RBs three completions, then you are left with 7 unaccounted for catches. Tolbert had 2+ in 12 of 17 games last season and maybe if Dallas and Dak had passed for a ton of yards vs. Philly without him, I'd expect a further reduction in snaps. But since that wasn't the case, hopefully he'll get back to over 50% of snaps.

TE Jake Ferguson is the only other consistently targeted receiver. Ferguson's heavily juiced under 4.5 projects to 4 rec which should leave Tolbert his 2 or 3. When you add in that the projection model really likes Dak's over in completions this week we may have Tolbert get back to that 3 or 4 rec level.

Hunter Henry Over 32.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings)

Last week, I got Henry over 3.5 receptions but he sat on two for a long time and I was getting nervous. He crushed this over in yards line on those two catches. I realized that his yards per reception of nearly 11 is a very solid number for tight ends. He has accounted for 18.6% of team receptions but 20.8% of team yards so his yards track over at a higher rate than receptions.

He has gone over 3.5 receptions in 48.7% of games, but over 32.5 receiving yards in 56.5% of games. More importantly, after the first month of last season he has gone over this in 10 of 13 games. Miami was pathetic offensively and defensively in week 1 and Henry is projected for over 40 receiving yards. 

Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 53.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings)

We like the Over for Kyler Murray's passing touchdowns this week because the Cardinals get to face the Panthers defense that allowed 35 points per game on the road last season and didn't look much better in Week 1 vs. Jacksonville. I already issued a YES ATD pick here. The reason why you are getting a line this low on a guy who averages nearly 14.5 yards per reception is because oddsmakers typically set receiving lines based on target share and receptions per target.

For a stud wideout, Harrison does not get the target share that Kyler gave DeAndre Hopkins back in the day. But we can capitalize on that because Harrison's yards, TD line are heavily influenced by his relatively modest 17.8% of team receptions, and not his greater than 25% of team receiving yards and over 40% of team receiving TDs marks. He has gone Over this line in 11 of 18 career games and is projected for nearly 65.

Jahan Dotson Over 10.5 receiving yards (-118 BetMGM)

Four targets for four receptions and 24 yards. That's an okay receiving stat line for your starting running back, but it's awful for your two starting, Pro Bowl wideouts in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. But that's what they combined for in Week 1 vs. a Micah Parsons-less Dallas defense.

Jalen Hurts has earned the right to win any way he wants. Brown, Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert have earned the right to get all the secondary's attention defensively. Saquon Barkley is taking a heavier load receiving the ball. So you have star WRs stretching the field, a RB drawing attention around the line of scrimmage and this leaves Dotson with lots of running room if and when he catches a ball.

He averages 12.8 yards per reception, so this is really a bet that he has at least one reception. If John Metchie had been used as a starting WR in Week 1, maybe I'd be nervous about Dotson being WR3—but Metchie wasn't and I'm not. We are projecting him for 1.6 receptions and an easy Over with 22 yards. Dotson has gone Over in his last four games since he started getting consistent snaps in Week 18 when the Eagles rested starters (94 yards), followed by 11, 42, and 59 in Week 1.

Other Model Values

These are our latest Week 1 projections in comparison to the betting lines at the time we published. When there is projection value,  we list the full bet and the sportsbook with the best line. You can use this to see if the model agrees with your personal best bets. The table below was updated on Friday September 12.