NFL predictions: Week 9 could make AFC North suddenly interesting

After Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season, it appeared to be a foregone conclusion that the Pittsburgh Steelers would win their first AFC North title in five years. However, there are signs that the Baltimore Ravens are not yet ready to relinquish the throne.

Pittsburgh won four of its first five games during four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers' first -- and possibly only -- season with the club. Meanwhile, Baltimore dropped five of its first six contests and lost two-time MVP Lamar Jackson to a hamstring injury along the way.

The road has gotten rocky for the Steelers of late, however. After being edged on the road 33-31 by the division-rival Cincinnati Bengals in Week 7, they lost a 35-25 decision at home to the NFC North-leading Green Bay Packers this past Sunday.

The Ravens had a chance to lick their wounds as they were on a bye in Week 7, and the rest seemed to do them good as they returned to post a 30-16 victory against the Chicago Bears. Derrick Henry ran for a pair of touchdowns and Tyler Huntley took over at quarterback for Cooper Rush and performed well in his first start of the year, completing 17 of 22 pass attempts for 186 yards and a TD while also gaining 53 yards on the ground.

Things won't be getting any easier for Pittsburgh, which hosts the NFL-leading Indianapolis Colts this Sunday. The Steelers then take on the Los Angeles Chargers, Bengals, Bears and Buffalo Bills before a showdown in Baltimore in Week 14.

The Steelers are 22-8 all-time against the Colts but have lost the last two meetings following an eight-game winning streak in the series. And now they face an Indianapolis team that has won four in a row, ranks first in the NFL in both total offense (385.3 yards per game) and scoring (33.8 points) and features the league's top rusher in Jonathan Taylor (850 yards), who is first with 12 touchdown runs and has registered three overall TDs in four of his last six games.

Conversely, the Ravens play their next five games against sub-.500 opponents, beginning with a Week 9 road matchup with the 2-6 Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. And it's all but certain that Jackson will return from his injury and be under center at Hard Rock Stadium.

"I feel very confident about it," Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh told reporters on Monday. "We'll expect him to be out there Thursday night."

The prospect of facing Miami likely has Jackson salivating. The 28-year-old is just 2-2 lifetime against the Dolphins but has come up with a few amazing performances, especially in the victories. Jackson finished with over 320 passing yards, five touchdown tosses and no interceptions in each win, with Baltimore scoring at least 56 points both times, and threw for 318 yards and three TDs while also running for 119 yards and a score in a 42-38 loss in 2022.

Despite the Steelers' back-to-back losses, SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and its projection model currently still like their chances of winning the AFC North. The ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, feels Pittsburgh's outlook increases by almost 13% with a victory over Indianapolis and a loss by Baltimore in Week 9.

A Steelers loss and Ravens win against the Dolphins still would leave Pittsburgh with a better than 57% chance to capture the division title. But those results would increase Baltimore's current outlook by nearly 11%, according to the model's simulations. Both teams' chances of making the playoffs are similar to their AFC North title chances in all instances.

Baltimore is a 7.5-point favorite on Thursday Night Football against Miami, which is coming off a 34-10 victory against the Atlanta Falcons that ended its three-game losing streak. The Dolphins have shown an ability to be competitive, as three of their six losses this year were by one score.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are 3-point underdogs versus the Colts, who led the Los Angeles Rams by seven points with less than 3 1/2 minutes remaining in their lone loss this season. Five of Indianapolis' seven wins were by double digits, with three being by at least 24 points.

According to the model, the Ravens outlast the Dolphins in Jackson's return, as it is predicting a 34-27 victory by Baltimore. The model also sees Pittsburgh keeping up with Indianapolis but ultimately suffering a 27-26 loss.