NFL predictions: Playoff implications for Packers vs. Lions on Thanksgiving Day from proven model
According to SportsLine's Inside the Lines team, one team on Thanksgiving has much more to lose than the other in Week 13
Entering the 2025 NFL season, it was widely believed the Green Bay Packers would present the Detroit Lions with their toughest challenge in their quest for a third consecutive NFC North title. But as we enter Week 13, both teams are looking up at the surprising Chicago Bears, who sit atop the division after winning four straight contests and eight of their last nine.
The Packers (7-3-1), who rebounded from back-to-back losses to the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles with triumphs over the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings, are a half game behind the Bears (8-3). The Lions (7-4) find themselves trailing Chicago by one game as they have alternated defeats and victories over their last six outings.
Green Bay, which has won three straight road games, is coming off a 23-6 home win against Minnesota as Emanuel Wilson made his first career start in place of the injured Josh Jacobs and rushed for 107 yards and two touchdowns. Detroit was in danger of suffering consecutive losses for the first time this season as it trailed the Giants by 10 points early in the fourth quarter last Sunday before Jahmyr Gibbs took over, rushing for a 49-yard score with 10:50 remaining before producing a 69-yard TD run in overtime.
The Packers opened the year with a 27-13 victory over the Lions at home as Jordan Love threw a pair of touchdown passes and Jacobs ran for a score. Even though Jacobs is listed as questionable, Detroit may need another huge effort from Gibbs as it hosts Green Bay in its annual Thanksgiving Day game.
The Lions have hosted a contest on Thanksgiving nearly every year since 1934 and own a 38-45-2 record on the holiday. They edged the Bears 23-20 last year, ending their seven-game losing streak on Thanksgiving.
Detroit's most frequent opponent on the holiday is Green Bay as the division rivals have met 22 times. The Lions are 12-9-1 against the Packers on Thanksgiving but suffered a 29-22 loss when the teams clashed in 2023.
Despite its recent issues, Detroit enters Week 13 with one of the top offenses in the NFL. The Lions are eighth in the league in passing (238.6 yards), fourth in total offense (378.5), third in rushing (139.8) and second in scoring (29.6 points).
Detroit will be facing a strong Green Bay defense, however, as the Packers are sixth against the run (96.5 yards allowed), fifth against the pass (182.3), fifth in points allowed (18.4) and fourth in total defense (278.7 yards allowed).
Prior to the Week 1 loss, Detroit won six of its previous seven meetings with Green Bay. SportsLine's Inside the Lines team feels another victory on Thursday is important for the Lions, whose chances of making the playoffs would drop dramatically with a defeat.
According to the ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, Detroit's prospects of reaching the postseason would be strong with a Thanksgiving Day win, and its hopes of a third straight NFC North title also would receive a sizable boost. However, a loss would make it extremely difficult for the Lions to win the division again.
CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | ||||
TEAM | CURRENT | WITH WEEK 13 WIN | WITH WEEK 13 LOSS | DIFFERENCE |
Detroit Lions | 70.6% | 83.7% | 54.5% | 29.2% |
Green Bay Packers | 78.9% | 92.3% | 68.3% | 24.0% |
Even though the Packers trail the Bears, who visit Philadelphia on Friday, the ITL team's model currently gives them the best chance to finish first in the NFC North. Green Bay still will have the best outlook with a loss to Detroit but it faces Chicago twice over the following three weeks, so a triumph over the Lions certainly would be in its best interests.
CHANCES OF WINNING NFC NORTH | ||||
TEAM | CURRENT | WITH WEEK 13 WIN | WITH WEEK 13 LOSS | DIFFERENCE |
Detroit Lions | 31.1% | 47.5% | 10.5% | 37.0% |
Green Bay Packers | 40.8% | 61.5% | 24.3% | 37.2% |
Chicago Bears | 28.1% | 40.5% | 21.9% | 18.6% |
Minnesota Vikings | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The Packers are 105-78-7 all-time against the Lions, but eight of their last 13 meetings have been decided by fewer than eight points. Green Bay will be playing on Thanksgiving Day for the 39th time, tying Chicago for third-most, and enters the matchup against Detroit with a 16-20-2 record as it makes its third consecutive appearance on the holiday for the first time since facing the Lions every year from 1951-63.
Detroit is a 2.5-point favorite against Green Bay in the latest consensus odds, and the ITL team's model is projecting a 27-24 victory for the Lions, which would make their playoff chances exceptionally strong and keep them firmly in the mix for a third straight NFC North title.
