NFL predictions: Playoff implications for Bears vs. Commanders on Monday Night Football from proven model

The Chicago Bears entered the 2025 NFL season with high expectations, but they came crashing down quickly as the team began its campaign with losses to a pair of division rivals in the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions, both of whom recorded at least 14 wins last year.

Chicago (2-2) bounced back nicely to even its record, rolling past the Dallas Cowboys and edging the Las Vegas Raiders. The club is hoping that being on a bye last week does not stall its momentum as it visits the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football in Week 6.

Big things also were expected from the Commanders (3-2), who split their first four games, including two with backup Marcus Mariota under center in place of an injured Jayden Daniels. But the 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year returned from his knee injury last week and helped Washington rally from an early 10-point deficit to post a 27-10 road victory against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Daniels threw for 231 yards and a touchdown to Deebo Samuel late in the fourth quarter that sealed the win. Meanwhile, he was aided by the running of rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who recorded 114 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 carries.

Croskey-Merritt, who was selected in the seventh round of the 2025 NFL Draft, spearheads a Washington ground attack that ranks first in the league with an average of 156.4 yards. The 24-year-old will be going up against a Chicago defense that is next-to-last against the run at 164.5 yards allowed per game.

The matchup favors the Commanders in a big way, and according to SportsLine's Inside the Lines team, they'll need to take advantage of it. The ITL team's projection model says Washington has much more to lose with a defeat on Monday Night Football than Chicago does.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, believes the Commanders have a solid chance to make the playoffs for the second straight season and third time in 10 years. Entering Week 6, it sees Washington reaching the postseason in more than 52% of its simulations. Conversely, the Bears qualify less than 20% of the time.

The ITL team's model has crunched the numbers for Monday's contest at Northwest Stadium in Maryland, as well as every NFL game for the remainder of the season, and its simulations say a loss by the Commanders would do major damage to their playoff outlook. If Washington gets upset by the Bears, its postseason chances would drop below 36%.

According to the model, the Commanders make the playoffs in just under 60% of its simulations with a victory, which is only around a 7.5% improvement. Chicago's chances would rise from 19.5% to just over 32% with a win, which is a larger difference but still leaves the team with an unfavorable outlook. A loss by the Bears wouldn't reduce their already slim chances very much, as they only would drop to 12.5%.

Meanwhile, neither club's chances for a division title are very good at the moment. Washington's are just under 24% to win the NFC East and barely will exceed 27% with a victory in Week 6 while dropping to 17% with a loss.

The model currently has Chicago's NFC North title hopes at 2.5%, which will rise to just over 4% with a win on Monday night and drop to less than 1.5% with a defeat.

The Commanders are 2-0 at home this season and have won five straight at Northwest Stadium dating back to last season. They have won four of their last six meetings with the Bears on their own field, ending a two-game skid with an 18-15 triumph in Week 8 last year.

Washington built a 12-0 lead in that matchup with four field goals but allowed it to disappear as Roschon Johnson scored on a 1-yard run with 25 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter and Caleb Williams connected with Cole Kmet for the two-point conversion to put Chicago ahead 15-12. But after an incompletion and a pair of passes that got the Commanders to their own 48-yard line, Daniels scrambled for what felt like an eternity and threw up a Hail Mary from his own 35 that was tipped at the Chicago 2 and fell into the hands of Noah Brown - who was standing alone in the end zone - for the game-winning TD.

While the Bears are seeking their third consecutive victory, a triumph would be more helpful for the Commanders when it comes to the playoff hopes of both teams. Washington is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest consensus odds, and the ITL team's model is leaning toward a cover by the Commanders, projecting them to register a 31-22 win.