NFL predictions: How Chiefs vs. Bills in Week 9 impacts the AFC playoff race, according to proven model
The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model says the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC could be on the line on Sunday
Shortly after the Kansas City Chiefs dismantled the Commanders on Monday night, 28-7, Nick Bolton stood behind a podium at his postgame press conference. A media member asked the Kansas City linebacker when he would start turning his attention to the team's next game.
He glanced over at his watched and replied, "Probably about 20 minutes from now."
There's ample reason why Bolton is ready to move onto the next opponent. This week, the Chiefs (5-3) play the Bills (5-2) at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., in a showdown between AFC heavyweights. And while the teams may have records that are a bit muddied up after some hiccups earlier this season, the matchup still carries enormous significance.
Even though Buffalo is second in the AFC East and Kansas City is tied for second in the AFC West, Sunday's game features the two betting favorites in the AFC. The Chiefs, who have won three straight conference titles, are the +240 favorites to reach the Super Bowl from the AFC, according to DraftKings, with the Bills the +390 second choice.
But those odds will change significantly after Sunday's game. According to the SportsLine Inside the Lines team and projection model, the game will have an enormous impact on the race for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, as well as the home field advantage and bye week that go with it.
The Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, says that Buffalo enters Week 9 with a 22.1% chance to earn the No. 1 seed while Kansas City has a 12.4% chance.
| Entering Week 9 | Bills | Chiefs |
| 1 seed | 22.1% | 12.4% |
| 2 seed | 23.5% | 12.0% |
| 3 seed | 15.0% | 9.9% |
| 4 seed | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 5 seed | 13.3% | 16.5% |
| 6 seed | 11.6% | 18.4% |
| 7 seed | 7.5% | 15.0% |
If the Bills beat the Chiefs on Sunday, Buffalo's chances to earn the No. 1 seed increases significantly, to 30.7%. Meanwhile, Kansas City's chances crash to 3.2%.
| If Bills win | Bills | Chiefs |
| 1 seed | 30.7% | 3.2% |
| 2 seed | 27.6% | 9.4% |
| 3 seed | 10.7% | 12.1% |
| 4 seed | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| 5 seed | 15.3% | 12.7% |
| 6 seed | 8.6% | 20.7% |
| 7 seed | 3.7% | 19.2% |
On the other hand, if the Chiefs win on Sunday, they improve their No. 1 seed chances dramatically, to 24.1%, while downgrading the Bills' probability to 7.7%.
| If Chiefs win | Bills | Chiefs |
| 1 seed | 7.7% | 24.1% |
| 2 seed | 17.2% | 14.1% |
| 3 seed | 25.6% | 6.3% |
| 4 seed | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| 5 seed | 9.2% | 22.5% |
| 6 seed | 13.7% | 16.0% |
| 7 seed | 12.8% | 9.2% |
Translation; the loser of Sunday's game will have an enormous hill to climb to in order earn the top spot in the AFC entering the playoffs.
Kansas City is playing its best football. After opening the season with losses to the Chargers and Eagles, the Chiefs have won five of their last six games. Since Week 4, Kansas City leads the league in total offense (415.8 yards per game) and passing offense (278.2) and ranks second in red zone efficiency (76.9%). The Chiefs have scored at least 28 points in five straight games.
At the same time, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is averaging 286.0 passing yards a game and completing 71.8% of his passes and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 14-to-3.
"I know the record is not as good as good [as last year's at this time], but it's a lot more fun just when everybody is kinda going out there and making stuff happen," Mahomes said after the game on Monday.
The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over Buffalo.
Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off a 40-9 dismantling of the Panthers, which ended a two-game losing streak. If Buffalo is to win on Sunday, it will need to do something it hasn't this season: beat a team currently with a winning record. The Bills' five victories have come against teams that are a combined 10-29.
"We have a ton of respect for [the Chiefs]," Buffalo coach Sean McDermott said. "They've had, like us, a lot of success and been able to sustain success. They're playing at a high level."
