NFL picks: Hunter Henry prop among SportsLine expert's best bets for Week 9

One of the most anticipated matchups of the 2025 NFL season takes place in Week 9, when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Buffalo BIlls at 4:25 p.m. ET. These AFC powerhouses have developed an intense rivalry in recent years, with Buffalo winning each of the last four regular season meetings and Kansas City defeating the Bills in four of the last five postseasons - including twice in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs (5-3) enter the latest showdown with a three-game winning streak and victories in five of their last six contests, while the Bills (5-2) are seeking their second straight triumph after having suffered back-to-back defeats. 

For Sunday's matchup between the Chiefs and Bills, top sportsbooks have set the rushing yards prop for Buffalo's James Cook at 75.5 yards, while Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City has his passing yards prop set at 271.5. 

Before you play a side on Cook, Mahomes or any player prop for Week 9 of the NFL season, you need to see what SportsLine player prop expert PropBetGuy has to say. The expert is +252 on his last nine NFL player prop picks. Here are his analysis and picks.

Hunter Henry Under 15.5 yards on longest reception (-120, bet365)

Henry has the unenviable task of facing the Falcons defense this week. Atlanta has allowed the fewest targets, catches and receiving yards to opposing tight ends and ranks second in DVOA against the position (per FTN).

In fact, the Falcons have allowed only one catch of more than 16 yards to an opposing tight end this season. Employing a heavy dose of Cover 3 with a single high safety, Atlanta clogs up the seam routes on which Henry usually would earn his chunk yardage plays.

Henry is Under this line in four of eight games this season, including each of his last three. I'd bet this down to Under 14.5.

Keon Coleman Under 19.5 yards on longest reception (-115, DraftKings)

After a fast start to the season, Coleman has cooled off. The second-year wideout was Under this line in five of his seven games, and after a strong Week 1 outing (which is now looking more like an anomaly), his target share has dipped below 20%.

The Chiefs are a brutal matchup for deep passes, as they've only allowed two completions of at least 15 air yards per game (and a total of just 11 to receivers lined up on the outside).

Coleman has not caught a deep pass from Josh Allen since Week 4, and the two have struggled to connect on downfield looks this season. Allen is 2-of-7 with two interceptions when targeting Coleman at least 20 yards downfield.

Coleman also struggles to gain separation from coverage, leading to well-below average yards-after-catch numbers: 2.0 YAC per catch is 67th among 71 receivers with at least 25 targets.

In a tough matchup, I'd bet this down to Under 18.5.

Alec Pierce Over 43.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

Pierce has clicked with quarterback Daniel Jones. After pedestrian production in his first two seasons, Pierce has cleared this line in five straight games.

Notably for Sunday's matchup, Pierce is the Colts' leading receiver against single-high safety sets this season with 301 yards in just six games. Pittsburgh runs single-high looks at the league's third-highest rate and is allowing the most receiving yards per game to opposing receivers overall.

The Steelers' defense has been shredded for over 700 passing yards over the last two games. And thanks to a clunky offense that does not control the clock, Pittsburgh allows the most offensive plays per game (68).

At 12 yards per target, Pierce doesn't require a ton of volume to realistically clear this line. Even so, I have the Cincinnati product seeing 5-6 targets. I'd bet this up to Over 47.5 receiving yards.