NBA prediction markets: NBA discussing potential partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket
Predictions market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have been exploding in popularity, and deals with pro sports leagues are the latest sign of their reach
As the NBA Playoffs continues to thrill fans, the league is in talks with Kalshi and Polymarket to become the latest sports league to partner with the prediction-market platforms, according to Front Office Sports. The NBA and representatives for Kalshi and Polymarket are hoping a deal will be reached before the start of next season.
The talks have been accelerating as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has signaled its intent to provide strong regulation of the sports prediction markets.
The sports betting landscape continues to evolve, with top sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and others offering all sorts of wagering options. But sports wagering is regulated by states, while predictions markets' different approach places them under federal regulation. Leagues are pursuing deals that will give them some input into what type of markets will be offered.
Predictions markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are different from traditional sports betting, as they are considered commodity trading platforms. They allow users to purchase stock-market-like contracts on future events across various categories, with the price of each share reflecting the likelihood of the outcome of the specific event.
For example, for a recent 2026 NBA Playoffs matchup between the Lakers and the Rockets, one share on Houston to win was priced at 78 cents per share. That implies a 78% probability that the Rockets will win. With each share paid out based on $1 per share, the profit on each successful prediction would be 22 cents.
Kalshi and Polymarket have been working feverishly with the pro leagues to get deals done, and MLB has an exclusive deal with Polymarket, while the NHL has partnerships with both of the most recognizable predictions market platforms. The NBA could go the same route, with talks reportedly ongoing with Kalshi and Polymarket regarding protecting the integrity of games and the financial parameters of potential deals.
Individual teams have also deals of their own, including the Chicago Blackhawks with Kalshi and the New York Rangers with Polymarket in the NHL. PGA Tour pro Bryson DeChambeau also has a contract with Kalshi, and that platform has drawn controversy for its relationship with NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Milwaukee Bucks' two-time league MVP became a Kalshi shareholder in February and acts as an ambassador and appears in advertising.
The MLB-Polymarket deal, which Front Office Sports reports could be worth up to $300 million over as many as four years, might be a precedent for the type of money that will be involved. The NFL also has had discussions with the platforms about potential partnerships and has been advising the CFTC on desired rules on trading markets. The NFL has expressed concerns about markets that could be vulnerable to manipulation, such as missed field goals or events like coaching changes that could leak in advance.
Both platforms already offer trades on NBA games, but without a deal with the leagues, Kalshi and Polymarket are prohibited from using logos and nicknames. On current NBA trades on Kalshi, teams are designated by their home city and a high-top sneaker in team colors. A partnership also would give the platforms access to the league's official data and real-time stats.
Kalshi is available in all 50 states, though permitted markets and trades can differ by location. Polymarket just returned to the United States after being banned in 2022. With a more favorable political outlook, many sportsbooks are trying to tap into the popular predictions markets.
DraftKings launched a predictions platform in December, FanDuel has a predictions app that in live in 16 states and Fanatics recently launched its own platform that is live in 10 states. The sportsbooks are launching their products with a focus on states where mobile sports betting is still illegal.
Predictions platforms have endured criticism for markets that can be perceived as ripe for "insider trading," but new FCTC chairman Michael Selig has made the integrity of the games (and trades) a priority. He has been in direct discussions with the leagues to flag markets and create rules on markets that are susceptible to the perception of manipulation.
