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The TBS Tuesday night game for May 12 is a massive one as a monster series between the Cubs and Braves kicks off. Atlanta owns the best record in baseball at 28-13, and Chicago is close behind at 27-14 after winning eight of its last 10 games. While all eyes are on the Dodgers and their quest for a three-peat, the Braves have looked like the most complete team in all of MLB, while no National League squad has played better than the Cubs of late. Colin Rea (4-1, 4.03 ERA) starts for Chicago against Atlanta's Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.34 ERA).

If you're interested in MLB betting, you need to see what SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca has to say about Cubs vs. Braves on Tuesday night before placing any MLB bets of your own. Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB capper who is up 133.4 units dating back to the 2022 MLB season on straight bets, prop betting and parlay betting. Here's a look at his best bets for Cubs vs. Braves on Tuesday.

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Cubs vs. Braves best bets

  • Cubs team total Over 3.5 runs (-138, FanDuel): 1u
  • Michael Busch Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+100, BetMGM): 0.5u

The Chicago Cubs are on a 20-5 run and lead the NL Central by 3.5 games over the Brewers. They're looking to break the chain of a couple losses, though, after the offense was nonexistent in the final two games in Texas, allowing the Brewers to make up some ground in the division with their sweep of the Yankees. 

To be fair, Jacob deGrom tossed seven shutout innings against the Cubs with 10 strikeouts and just three hits allowed in one of those losses, and the Texas bullpen was great on both Saturday and Sunday. The Cubs got a day off to clear their heads on Monday, while traveling to Atlanta to begin a series with the Braves and Grant Holmes, who is on the mound tonight against Colin Rea for Chicago. If you want to pick a side, the Cubs price is showing some value and is a solid play based on the price being better than +110.

Cubs team total Over 3.5 runs

Holmes hasn't been terrible, but he also hasn't been able to keep opposing teams off the scoreboard when stepping on the mound. He's allowed at least two runs in six of seven starts, and in the games he's started at home this year, he's allowed three runs each time. Holmes has now surrendered seven hits in consecutive starts, and when you look at just his last four outings since mid-April, he's allowed a hit-hard rate of nearly 54% while giving up four home runs over his last 19 2/3 innings. 

The only start this year where Homes allowed multiple home runs also came in Atlanta, and this Cubs offense will give him at least four left-handed batters tonight in Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Moises Ballesteros and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Holmes has allowed a .200 ISO over the last four starts when facing left-handed batters, and all four lefties I named have power to leave the yard. 

At just 3.5 runs for an away team that will see nine at-bats in one of the better hitting environments in all of baseball, I'm taking the Cubs' offense to bounce back and score at least four runs tonight. 

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Michael Busch Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

Busch has been one of the hottest hitters so far in May after hitting just under .200 in April. He's turned it on since the calendar flipped to May, picking up 13 hits, 12 RBI and nine walks in 42 plate appearances. He owns a hard-hit rate over 50% against sliders from right-handed pitchers this year, and he should be able to handle the fastball from Holmes, which grades out as his worst pitch with just an 80 Stuff+ rating. Both pitches make up a significant portion of what the Braves righty is going to throw, and while all of the prices on these Cubs hitters make for good bets, Busch being +100 or better makes this one of the best to target. 

In May, Busch has seen his xwOBA jump more than 200 points against fastballs, from .247 to .457, with an average exit velocity at 97 mph, which is above the "hard-hit" classification of 95 mph. Busch has also been more productive against breaking pitches with a xwOBA jump from .237 to .361, and the exit velocity story is the same with better than a 96 mph average. 

When you combine that, those two pitches will make up a vast majority of what Busch will see from Holmes on Tuesday and that we're getting one of the best hitters on the away team hitting in the heart of the order, this makes for a great play while reducing the juice.

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