MLB picks: Phillies at Dodgers NLDS Game 3 prediction, props, best bets for Wednesday, Oct. 8

The defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers attempt to take the next step toward repeating when they host the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday in Game 3 of their National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles has been hot of late, winning nine consecutive games - including four in the postseason - and 13 of 15 since losing the first two of its three-game regular-season set against Philadelphia at home in mid-September. The Dodgers also have gone 9-1 in their last 10 playoff contests dating back to the 2024 NLCS against the New York Mets.

Philadelphia has struggled in the playoffs since taking a 2-0 lead against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2023 NLCS, losing nine of its last 11 postseason games. The Phillies squandered a three-run lead in their 5-3 loss in the opener of this series and were lifeless offensively in Game 2, recording just one hit over the first seven innings, before staging a late rally that fell just short as Trea Turner grounded out with the tying run at third base in a 4-3 setback.

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Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola (5-10, 6.01 ERA) to the mound in Game 3 as it attempts to stave off elimination. Los Angeles, which is seeking its second series sweep this postseason after defeating the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Wild Card Series, counters with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-8, 2.49). First pitch at Dodger Stadium is set for 9:08 p.m. ET, and the game will be televised nationally on TBS.

If you're looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Phillies vs. Dodgers odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

Nola concluded the worst regular season of his 11-year career by losing three of his final five starts, allowing four or more runs in each defeat. However, the 32-year-old right-hander was impressive last time out as he registered a season-high nine strikeouts while giving up only one run and two hits across eight innings in a victory over the Minnesota Twins. Nola is 3-3 with a 4.31 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 71 frames in 12 career turns against the Dodgers, including a loss on April 5 in which he yielded three runs and fanned just two batters across six innings.

Yamamoto has not lost since Aug. 11 against the Los Angeles Angels, going 2-0 with 56 strikeouts over 47 frames in his final seven regular-season starts before allowing two unearned runs and striking out nine batters in 6 2/3 innings against Cincinnati in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. The 27-year-old Japanese righty is 3-0 with 24 strikeouts across 25 1/3 frames in five career postseason turns. Yamamoto's only outing against the Phillies came on Apr. 4, when he suffered the loss despite only giving up an unearned run and fanning five over six innings.

Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for Yamamoto at 7.5 (Over +106, Under -140) and Nola at 2.5 (Over -153, Under +115). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Nola's Over 2.5 strikeouts prop as a 5-star play on its 5-star scale and Yamamoto's Under 7.5 strikeouts at 4.5 stars.

Reigning NL MVP Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers is the +158 favorite to belt a home run at FanDuel Sportsbook. Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, who hit 56 homers to edge Ohtani by one for most in the NL this year, is +255. They are followed by Dodgers teammates Teoscar Hernandez (+340) and Freddie Freeman (+350), while Philadelphia's Bryce Harper is priced at +370.

Check out the model's plays for Dodgers vs. Phillies on Wednesday: 

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at LOS ANGELES DODGERS | 10/8 | 9:08 p.m. ET, TBS

Money line
Pick: Phillies +151
Philadelphia wins in 43% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line
Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-134)
Philadelphia covers in 66% of simulations

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
The Over hits in 59.6% of simulations

Projected score: Dodgers 4.5, Phillies 4.2