judge-imagn.jpg
Imagn Images

MLB's top rivalry is renewed on Tuesday with the New York Yankees heading to Fenway Park for a date with the Boston Red Sox. Both teams made the postseason a year ago with New York knocking Boston out in the Wild Card Round, but the Red Sox are off to a tough 9-13 start while the Yankees sit atop the American League East at 13-9. First pitch for the series opener is set for 6:45 p.m. ET for the Tuesday's MLB on TBS matchup. 

If you're interested in MLB betting, you need to see what Angelo Magliocca has to say. Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB capper who is up 133.4 units dating back to the 2022 MLB season on straight bets, prop betting and parlay betting. Now, he has three best bets for Tuesday's Yankees vs. Red Sox matchup, including the reigning American League MVP.

Wager on Yankees vs. Red Sox with the DraftKings promo code.

Yankees vs. Red Sox best bets

  • Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-135, DraftKings) -- 0.5u

  • Yankees Team Total Over 3.5 runs (-140, DraftKings) -- 1u

  • Ben Rice Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-110, DraftKings) -- 0.5u

The rivalry is renewed Tuesday night, as Aaron Judge and the Yankees travel to Boston to take on Roman Anthony and the Red Sox in a three-game set at Fenway Park. The Red Sox rallied for six runs across the sixth, seventh and eighth innings of Monday's game to beat the Tigers 8-6 on Patriot's Day, even after losing starting pitcher Sonny Gray early to injury. The bullpen picked up the slack and was used a ton, with just one of eight relievers not used. This could put some strain on the pitching formula tonight, as starter Connelly Early will need to eat some innings. 

On the other side, Luis Gil is looking for a rebound after allowing seven runs across his first two starts, with five walks allowed in just nine innings of work. Walks had previously been an issue for Gil and even with how electric he can be with the swing and miss stuff, too many walks in this one will spell his demise quickly. The Yankees' bullpen may be asked to come in earlier than expected if Gil has issues again after an off day Monday and two blowout wins between Saturday and Sunday against the Royals that saved their top arms. 

One thing that may help the pitchers tonight is the weather, with colder temps in the mid-40's on the East Coast likely to depress power numbers. Gil has allowed four home runs in just two starts, and last time out the Angels jumped all over him the third time through the order, crushing two home runs before Gil was pulled after the inning. The Red Sox lineup will make him work, and that third time through the order could come sooner than expected, so I lean to Gil having a shorter outing here and the Yankees bullpen picking up where he left off. If there was a 15.5 outs line to fade, I would be doing so, but we only have 14.5 outs lines available so I'll hold off, though I do lean under at current +130 odds.

Bet on MLB action with the FanDuel promo code for a great offer.

Things set up well for Judge, Yankees vs. Boston's arms

I mentioned how Boston's bullpen was used up a lot yesterday, so Judge should be seeing southpaw starter Early at least a few times in this one. He's been great against lefties with a staggering five home runs in just 25 at-bats so far, building on his success from last year against left-handers when he hit .341 with 16 homers in 123 at-bats. He's been a killer against any and all pitchers, but he's given fits to lefties especially. 

Early comes into this game with some solid looking box score numbers, but the underlying metrics show he is due for some major regression. A 2.29 ERA looks fantastic on paper having worked through four starts already, but the expected ERA is nearly three runs higher at 5.24! He's allowed 20 hard-hit balls and seven barrels from 52 batted balls, which is more than triple what he yielded to opponents through his four starts in 2025. This is still a kid that's getting acclimated to MLB action, and while he's produced solid numbers against teams like Cincinnati, St. Louis and Minnesota thus far, this Yankees lineup is a bit different. They got to him for six hits and three earned runs in 3 2/3 innings during the postseason last year, and weirdly enough, Judge wasn't part of that scoring effort, going 0-for-2 against the young lefty. I don't think Early gets as lucky tonight, and being that the Yankees are the away team, I'm taking the Over on 3.5 runs scored knowing they face the young lefty with regression concerns and a Red Sox bullpen that's overworked.

Ben Rice is too hot to fade vs. a lefty starter

We don't have official lineups just yet, but Rice has been on a tear and it doesn't matter if you're a lefty or a righty, he's beating everyone right now. We'll need to confirm he is getting the start against a lefty here, but I don't see how Aaron Boone can keep him on the bench any longer in the left-on-left matchup after racking up six hits and three walks in 20 plate appearances against southpaws. 

This lineup just faced consecutive lefties against the Royals in Noah Cameron and Cole Ragans this past weekend, and Rice hit a home run off each of them to continue his streak of a home run in four straight games now. He looks incredibly locked in, and despite going 0-2 with two strikeouts vs. Early in the playoffs last year, this is a prop I'm taking the Over on at this price. There's value here at -110 for a guy on the away team that is potentially going to hit near the top of the order, but again, we will have to wait and see how the lineup shakes out to confirm that.

Use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for MLB betting.