Although there are just eight games on the MLB slate for Monday, July 6, there are plenty of options for those interested in MLB betting and prop betting when it comes to home run picks. SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca has analyzed the day's slate and made his best bets to go yard.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Best home run picks for Monday
- Trent Grisham (+411) and Ben Rice (+356), Yankees
- Mookie Betts, Dodgers (+406)
Trent Grisham (+411) and Ben Rice (+356), Yankees
Griffin Jax has allowed four home runs across his last three starts, and seven in the month of June through 30 innings pitched. In 34 2/3 innings against lefties this year, he's allowed seven long balls with a .276 average and at least one hit per inning. The plan for the Yankees tonight is to stack lefties atop the order against Jax, and look to take advantage of his weakness against the left side of the plate. He's struggled with allowing barrels and hard hit balls to lefties, mainly on the secondary pitches and his fastball, with the changeup being utilized the most and having the most success. The issue is Grisham and Rice have both been solid against opposing righty changeups, sporting a .432 and .444 SLG%, with each picking up multiple home runs in smaller sample sizes. If they don't take Jax for a ride on one of the pitches he's struggled with, they at least should have an advantage against the changeup and with nine guaranteed at bats, I like taking a shot on some Yankees lefties tonight.
Bellinger and Dominguez also intrigue me, but Rice had six home runs in 102 at-bats in June, and has already popped one in July thus far. Grisham narrowly missed a home run on Saturday which would have made it back-to-back games with a homer since coming off the IL. I like the way both of these hitters are going at the moment. They will be at the top of the order for added opportunities and have performed the best of the Yankees lefties against off-speed pitches, making them my top plays from this game.
Mookie Betts, Dodgers (+406)
The price here on Betts to hit a home run against the Rockies is showing some value, so I'm happy to take a shot at better than 4-1 when facing off with a lefty. Kyle Freeland and Betts have faced off numerous times in their careers, with Betts racking up 45 at-bats and producing three home runs in that time. I usually don't like to reference batter vs. pitcher stats due to the small sample sizes but this one is an exception. 45 at-bats against the same pitcher is truly notable. Betts having multiple home runs and a price above +400 could be where we end the discussion, but let's dive in further.
Freeland has allowed 15 home runs to right-handed batters in 59 innings this year, but just one to lefties in 17 innings. We're on the right side of the split for power with Betts being a right-handed batter, and the southpaw leads with a fastball that has been taken out of the park seven times by righties this year. Betts has hit just two of his 11 home runs against lefties but the sample size is only 63 at-bats, and both came against the fastball. If he can hunt a fastball from Freeland tonight, we could have the recipe we need for success, and I don't think it's asking that much with Freeland leaning on that pitch. The curveball may pose a bit of a problem since Freeland relies on that pitch nearly as much as the fastball, but opposing hitters have handled the breaking ball fine, with four home runs and a .661 SLG%.
