If you held a spring ticket on the first player to 40 homers this season and wagered on Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber, well, congrats! You cashed on Wednesday. This is the fourth time in five seasons with the Phillies that Schwarber has hit at least 40 after never doing so with the Cubs. Those four 40-homer seasons are tied with Ryan Howard for the most in franchise history and tied with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani for the most among active players -- Ohtani might get a fifth in 2026. But we still have no one on track for 50 with Schwarber on pace for around 48 and leading the field by three. He is your -295 leader to win the home run title in MLB prop betting. 

Speaking of home run prop betting, there are no games Friday at hitter-friendly parks in Denver or Cincinnati but one in Sacramento. Alas, there aren't any home run props I like much for Orioles-Athletics matchup even with winds blowing out per usual at the minor-league park.

Bet home run props at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager:

Those who want to get into MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.

Last Friday, my home run picks were the Rays' Yandy Diaz (+507) and White Sox's Randal Grichuk (+320). Diaz was a dud in Baltimore at 0-for-4 with a strikeout. But Grichuk paid as he went yard at home off Mets pitcher Sean Manaea -- and Grichuk's career splits vs. Manaea were the only reason for that pick. Surprised New York let Manaea face Grichuk in the sixth inning, but that's just one of many reasons why the Mets are a disaster and under an interim manager. As usual, all of my home run prop picks mean I like Over 1.5 total bases at the best sports betting apps even better. 

Bet home runs at BetMGM Sportsbook, where new users can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets here:

Top MLB home run picks for Friday, August 28

Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (+350, FanDuel)

Kansas City visits Cleveland in an AL Central series opener at matchup at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Guardians have one advantage in that they were off Thursday, while the Royals finished a series in Toronto and had to travel late. Winds will be blowing in Friday at Progressive Field but only slightly so it shouldn't matter. 

Cleveland right-hander Tanner Bibee is a good pitcher who won double-digit games in each of his first three big-league seasons, but that's going to end in 2026 as Bibee is 5-13 despite pretty solid overall numbers with a 3.97 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 123 strikeouts in 156.1 innings. Bibee has just been very unfortunate from a run support standpoint -- he's getting a league-low 3.02 runs per nine innings this year. Thus, he has been the second-worst pitcher in the Show this season in terms of money lost for bettors. You'd be down $1,064 if you bet on Cleveland to win each of his starts with the Guardians 8-19 in his 27 outings.

And I'm not sure things will go all that well tonight because several Royals have good career splits off Bibee, led by All-Star infielder Bobby Witt Jr. The 26-year-old is having a typically fine year, although his power is down slightly with 16 homers and a .459 slugging percentage that would be Witt's worst since his 2022 rookie season when he hit a career-low 20 dingers.

The Royals are one of the hottest teams in the majors -- it's too late for this season -- and Witt has been a big part of that in August with a .934 OPS and three homers. He is 9-for-24 off Bibee with three homers, good for a 1.233 OPS. Bibee is 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA in two starts this year vs. the Royals. Also consider lefty slugger Vinnie Pasquantino (+500), who is 10-for-17 off Bibee with two homers, two doubles and at triple, good for a 1.808 OPS.

Bet on home run props and more at FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1,000 in Bet Reset Tokens:

JJ Bleday, Reds (+495, DraftKings) 

You know we are reaching the end of the MLB regular season when the Cubs play their penultimate Friday matinee at Wrigley, which is the case today with a 2:20 ET first pitch in an NL Central matchup against Cincinnati. Winds are blowing out slightly. Normally, I'd preview this game separately but there's a lot going on this weekend with college football kicking off. 

I do like the Cubs to win against struggling Rhett Lowder (5-8, 5.13 ERA), although the only Chicago batter with a career homer off him is part-time player Michael Conforto. Lowder has allowed 15 homers this season and has 6.92 ERA overall on the road and 7.71 in all day starts. So while I expect a few Cubs to go yard, there's really none with great career splits off Lowder, who is in his first full big-league season. Ian Happ is having a good run with three homers in his past six and is +421 to go yard but has a single in five at-bats off Lowder.

So while I will be playing the Cubs in some form today and it thus pains me to recommend a Cincinnati player to homer, I nonetheless have to do it with outfielder JJ Bleday, who is hitting just .219 but already has surpassed his career high with 21 dingers. He's a bit due as since a four-hit game including a homer on Saturday at Arizona, Bleday is 1-for-13.

He is a career 6-for-12 with a homer off Cubs lefty starting pitcher David Peterson (7-7, 5.17 ERA). The veteran has been quite a bit better since coming over in trade from the Mets in late June but still is prone to the gopher-ball with 12 total homers allowed. Peterson hasn't faced the Reds since the trade but pitched twice against them while with New York (one start) and was 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA, one homer allowed and a .382 opponents' batting average.

Also consider Cincinnati catcher Tyler Stephenson (+640) as like Bleday he's 6-for-12 career off Peterson, but Stephenson hasn't homered with two doubles. He has hit 12 out this year but not since a pinch-hit shot vs. Miami on Aug. 16. 

Add CBS Sports on Google