There are so many story lines to examine on the first Sunday of this NFL season, but for some reason I've opted to take a look at maybe the worst matchup on the slate: Miami at Las Vegas, with a 4:25 p.m. ET kick on Fox. It's a matchup of the two teams in the league with the longest playoff win droughts. They are also the only two clubs in 2026 opening with a new starting quarterback, head coach and offensive and defensive coordinators.
This definitely isn't the 1970s or '80s, when these were two of the NFL's marquee franchises. The Dolphins and Raiders combined for 10 total victories in 2025, and that might be hard to even equal this year, simply as the Fins might have one of the worst overall rosters in recent league history. There is split ATS action on Las Vegas -3 and a decent lean on the Under 40.5.
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I will spend most of my time here on Miami, but let's quickly address the quarterback decision by first-year Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak, who was the offensive coordinator of last season's Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Such an interesting call that the Silver and Black opted not to open the season with No. 1 overall draft pick and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza under center and instead are going with veteran Kirk Cousins.
Mendoza will be the first top quarterback draft pick since Baker Mayfield in 2018 to sit Week 1 of his rookie campaign. The Las Vegas Review-Journal addressed this topic in full this week and essentially said the decision came down to the "ruthlessly efficient" manner in which Cousins ran Kubiak's offense in camp and the preseason.
Dolphins-Raiders NFL same-game parlay
- Las Vegas money line
- Alt Under 56.5
- Malik Willis 150+ passing yards
FanDuel SGP price: +171 (subject to change)
Mendoza definitely looked shaky at times in the preseason. And Raiders GM John Spytek made it a point to note that legends like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes sat as rookies, too. Of course, none of them were as touted out of college. Mendoza's odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year generally rose from +500 to now +750 following the decision.
No one seems to think he will sit long, unless Cousins and the team are shockingly good. That's doubtful, with Vegas pegged for a season win total of 5.5. Note that Las Vegas has gone an amazing 37 straight games scoring fewer than 30 points, the longest streak in team history. Over 29.5 points is +350 for Sunday. That rose from +320 with the surprise news that Pro Bowl tight end Brock Bowers was ruled out following a fairly minor knee procedure. He also had knee problems in 2025 and was limited to 12 games, but apparently this is different. Michael Mayer takes over as TE1.
While the Raiders at least have one piece of their major rebuild in place, does Miami? Maybe free-agent addition QB Malik Willis will be OK after he arrived from Green Bay. Willis looked great in limited 2025 action to where if you extrapolated his numbers over 17 games: 3,473 passing yards, 986 rushing yards, 34 total touchdowns and only five total turnovers. That's clearly not happening.
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De'Von Achane is a fine tailback who had a career-high 1,350 rush yards a season ago, but there's just nothing else there offensively. Remember when the Fins had maybe the NFL's best WR duo in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle? Now their top two guys are Malik Washington and Caleb Douglas. Yikes.
So here is what first-year head coach Jeff Hafley (+4000 for NFL Coach of the Year) has to deal with in 2026: The Dolphins have the NFL's youngest active roster (25), the most undrafted players (18), most rookies (14) and fewest guys at least age 30 (two). The team claimed a whopping seven players after roster cuts, more than double any other club, with 18 teams claiming zero.
Achane, who seems like a possible trade candidate, has one Pro Bowl selection in his career. That's it for the roster, tied for the fewest Pro Bowlers on any season-opening roster since such records became available in 2000. The players have combined for only 608 career starts, the fewest on record.
So maybe the team's win total of 3.5 is generous. Arizona also is set at 3.5 this year, and the last teams with a lower win total were the 1995 expansion Jaguars and Panthers at three each. For what it's worth, both those clubs went Over. The only lookahead game where Miami is favored this season via the SportsLine Projection Model is Week 12 at home vs. the Jets.
Yet the model has the club landing Over that win total 92% of the time and gives it only a 0.1% shot of finishing 0-17. That any club does that in 2026 is priced +900 at DraftKings with No at -2000. Such a shame the Fins and Cards don't play each other.
While Willis is 3-0 ATS in three career starts as an underdog, he had a lot more talent around him in those than he will Sunday. Meanwhile, Cousins went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in his final four last year with Atlanta. At least we pretty much know what we get with him. No Bowers is not great, but it simply got us a slightly better overall price. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
