Bills vs. Falcons: NFL player props for Josh Allen, Michael Penix Jr. for Monday Night Football Week 6
We'll go over the best player prop recommendations for Allen and Penix Jr. from the SportsLine Projection Model on Monday Night Football in Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season
Reigning league MVP Josh Allen leads the Buffalo Bills into Atlanta on Monday Night Football in Week 6 to face the Falcons, who are coming off a bye week. The Bills are hoping to bounce back after a loss to the Patriots in Week 5, while Atlanta is trying to go above .500. We'll look at player props for Allen and Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. for this Week 6 contest, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every game 10,000 times and provides a forecast with picks on the spread, money line and total. It also gives player prop projections and recommendations. Here's how the model sees Bills vs. Falcons playing out, along with prop recommendations for Allen, Penix Jr. and others. If you're new to NFL betting, be sure to take a look at our betting guide.
Passing yards props
Josh Allen: 229.5 (Over -111, Under -113)
Michael Penix Jr: 223.5 (Over -113, Under -111)
Top pick: Michael Penix Jr. Over 223.5 passing yards (4 stars)
The Falcons quarterback is projected to throw for 266.8 yards on Monday, well past this line. Penix Jr. has topped this line twice this season, throwing for 313 yards in Atlanta's win over the Commanders before the bye. The Bills have been good against the pass defensively, allowing opponents to throw for just 154.0 yards per game. That's the second-best mark in the league behind Atlanta.
Passing TDs props
Josh Allen: 1.5 (Over -129, Under +101)
Michael Penix Jr: 1.5 (Over +139, Under -179)
Top pick: Michael Penix Jr. Under 1.5 pass TDs (3 stars)
Even though the model sees Penix Jr. throwing for a lot of yards, it doesn't necessarily have him finding the end zone through the air. The Falcons passer is projected for just 0.4 passing touchdowns in Week 6. Penix Jr. has thrown one touchdown or less in three of Atlanta's four games this season. He went Under 1.5 passing touchdowns in four of his five appearances a year ago, though he was 1-1 to the Over in his two starts.
Pass attempts props
Josh Allen: 30.5 (Over -114, Under -112)
Michael Penix Jr: 31.5 (Over -107, Under -119)
Top pick: Michael Penix Jr. Over 31.5 attempts (3.5 stars)
This projection remains in line with the model's general view of Penix Jr. on Monday, picking him to throw the ball 33.6 times. Penix Jr. has gone Over this line twice in four games this season, though the Falcons would end up losing both contests.
